Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz
Tokyo | Hard | Final
30 Sep 2025, 09:00
30 Sep 2025, 09:00
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Carlos … | Taylor … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
16.42 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
100% (10p)
WR Hard
61/75 = 81.3%
Taylor Fritz
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
16.00 Pro
UTR Ranking
#11
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
59/88 = 67.0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 5.0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 6.0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1.7918 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0.0000 | |
| points_diff | 7915.0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 3.0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 15.3957 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 13.4425 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0.8523 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 5.0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 82.7326 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 67.3368 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 79.7468 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 66.3043 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 75.0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 88.0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0.6267 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1.0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1.0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1.0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -10.0799 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1.5021 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 5.1972 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -6.7675 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 5.8562 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -5.4440 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0.2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0.0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100.0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 98.0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2.0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0.0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1.0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1.0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1.0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4.0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4.0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0.0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1.0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1.0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1.0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0.0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1.0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0.2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1.3579 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1.2700 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0.5238 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0.5652 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5.9979 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 3.5829 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 27.5854 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0.3223 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0.1784 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0.0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0.4200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0.9906 | |
| utr_p2 | 0.9412 | |
| utr_advantage | 2.5910 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1.0000 | |
| utr_available | 1.0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0.0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0.0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0.0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
surface_wr_diff
0.1032
surface_rank_synergy
0.0540
points_diff
0.0344
utr_diff
0.0324
utr_advantage
0.0308
rank_tier_advantage
0.0300
rank_advantage
0.0264
surface_wr_diff_adjusted
0.0206
log_rank_ratio
0.0186
utr_available
0.0172
Info del Partido
Match ID
10238
API ID
14707430
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
Tokyo
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 10238,
"api_id": 14707430,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
"player2": "Taylor Fritz",
"tournament": "Tokyo",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Final",
"date": "2025-09-30T09:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
}
},
"prediction": null,
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 16.42,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 81.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 61,
"wr_surface_total": 75,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 16.0,
"utr_ranking": 11,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 67.04545454545455,
"wr_surface_wins": 59,
"wr_surface_total": 88,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 16.42,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 16.0,
"ranking": 11,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"rank_advantage": 5,
"rank_ratio": 6.0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.791759469228055,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"points_diff": 7915,
"best_rank_diff": 3,
"surface_wr_diff": 15.395716034271729,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 13.442487616951027,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8522727272727273,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 5,
"surface_wr_p1": 82.73255813953489,
"surface_wr_p2": 67.33684210526316,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 79.74683544303798,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 66.30434782608695,
"p1_surface_matches": 75,
"p2_surface_matches": 88,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.6266666666666667,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"serve_quality_diff": -10.079929357405149,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.5021201958384154,
"second_serve_won_diff": 5.197244247246012,
"bp_saved_diff": -6.767456380048962,
"bp_converted_diff": 5.8562056150550745,
"aces_per_match_diff": -5.444021266829867,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
"momentum_diff": 2.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.3578732106339468,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.27,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5652173913043478,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.997880814663578,
"serve_consistency_p2": 3.5828885333720937,
"surface_rank_synergy": 27.58541998995257,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.32232558139534884,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17836842105263162,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"utr_diff": 0.4200000000000017,
"utr_p1": 0.9905882352941179,
"utr_p2": 0.9411764705882353,
"utr_advantage": 2.590993214065402,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {
"rank_advantage": "0.0264",
"rank_ratio": "0.0154",
"log_rank_ratio": "0.0186",
"rank_tier_advantage": "0.03",
"points_diff": "0.0344",
"best_rank_diff": "0.0156",
"surface_wr_diff": "0.1032",
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": "0.0206",
"surface_matches_ratio": "0.0126",
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": "0.0128",
"surface_wr_p1": "0.0156",
"surface_wr_p2": "0.0157",
"surface_wr_p1_stable": "0.0122",
"surface_wr_p2_stable": "0.0125",
"p1_surface_matches": "0.0123",
"p2_surface_matches": "0.0123",
"p1_surface_dominance": "0.0134",
"p1_confidence": "0.0145",
"p2_confidence": "0.0121",
"combined_confidence": "0.0143",
"serve_quality_diff": "0.0122",
"first_serve_won_diff": "0.0125",
"second_serve_won_diff": "0.012",
"bp_saved_diff": "0.0121",
"bp_converted_diff": "0.0122",
"aces_per_match_diff": "0.0118",
"last5_wr_diff": "0.0115",
"last3_wr_diff": "0.0125",
"momentum_p1": "0.013",
"momentum_p2": "0.0115",
"momentum_diff": "0.0127",
"weighted_momentum_diff": "0.0119",
"current_streak_diff": "0.0129",
"days_since_last_match_p1": "0.0132",
"days_since_last_match_p2": "0.0114",
"match_load_p1": "0.012",
"match_load_p2": "0.0124",
"match_load_diff": "0.0123",
"h2h_wins_diff": "0.0133",
"h2h_matches": "0.0152",
"h2h_win_rate_p1": "0.0028",
"h2h_on_surface": "0.0059",
"h2h_recency_weighted": "0.0121",
"h2h_confidence_score": "0.0151",
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": "0.0141",
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": "0.0133",
"tiebreak_wr_p1": "0.0121",
"tiebreak_wr_p2": "0.012",
"serve_consistency_p1": "0.0117",
"serve_consistency_p2": "0.0124",
"surface_rank_synergy": "0.054",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": "0.0125",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": "0.0127",
"elite_surface_amplifier": "0.0171",
"utr_diff": "0.0324",
"utr_p1": "0.012",
"utr_p2": "0.0115",
"utr_advantage": "0.0308",
"utr_both_pro": "0.0149",
"utr_available": "0.0172"
}
}