Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur
ATP Finals | Hard |
09 Nov 2025, 17:00
09 Nov 2025, 17:00
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Carlos … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
37/43 = 86,0%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
39/55 = 70,9%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 5,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 6,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,7918 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 7970,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 5,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 12,1660 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 10,1390 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7653 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 4,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 82,7326 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 70,5666 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 79,7468 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 69,6078 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 75,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 98,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,6267 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,1664 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,2829 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 1,9955 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,2813 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 1,3337 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,9632 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 11,4700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 11,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 8,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,3579 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8981 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5238 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6071 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,1255 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,7330 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 21,7985 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3223 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2107 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,4300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9282 | |
| utr_advantage | 2,6700 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
utr_advantage
0,1087
utr_diff
0,0839
surface_wr_diff
0,0685
surface_rank_synergy
0,0307
rank_advantage
0,0208
rank_ratio
0,0191
surface_wr_p1
0,0190
surface_wr_diff_adjusted
0,0184
surface_wr_p2
0,0179
elite_surface_amplifier
0,0174
Info del Partido
Match ID
12019
API ID
15017492
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
ATP Finals
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 12019,
"api_id": 15017492,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
"player2": "Alex de Minaur",
"tournament": "ATP Finals",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2025-11-09T13:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
}
},
"prediction": null,
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 16.32,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
"wr_surface_wins": 37,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 15.89,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 39,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 16.32,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.89,
"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"rank_ratio": 6.0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.791759469228055,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"points_diff": 7970,
"best_rank_diff": 5,
"surface_wr_diff": 12.165961945031725,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 10.138992305783077,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7653061224489796,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 4,
"surface_wr_p1": 82.73255813953489,
"surface_wr_p2": 70.56659619450316,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 79.74683544303798,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.6078431372549,
"p1_surface_matches": 75,
"p2_surface_matches": 98,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.6266666666666667,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.1664303911205,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.2828520084566577,
"second_serve_won_diff": 1.9954603594080353,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.2813288847780129,
"bp_converted_diff": 1.3336653012685034,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.9631831395348831,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"momentum_p1": 60.0,
"momentum_p2": 52.0,
"momentum_diff": 8.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 11.469999999999999,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 11,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 8,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 3,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"h2h_wins_diff": 2,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.3578732106339468,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8981324278438031,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6071428571428571,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.125533779245918,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.733028891176666,
"surface_rank_synergy": 21.79847751727876,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.32232558139534884,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.21066596194503162,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"utr_diff": 0.4299999999999997,
"utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
"utr_p2": 0.9282352941176472,
"utr_advantage": 2.66997826761875,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {
"rank_advantage": "0.0208",
"rank_ratio": "0.0191",
"log_rank_ratio": "0.0159",
"rank_tier_advantage": "0.0126",
"points_diff": "0.0137",
"best_rank_diff": "0.0166",
"surface_wr_diff": "0.0685",
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": "0.0184",
"surface_matches_ratio": "0.0114",
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": "0.0109",
"surface_wr_p1": "0.019",
"surface_wr_p2": "0.0179",
"surface_wr_p1_stable": "0.0121",
"surface_wr_p2_stable": "0.0116",
"p1_surface_matches": "0.0114",
"p2_surface_matches": "0.0115",
"p1_surface_dominance": "0.0127",
"p1_confidence": "0.0097",
"p2_confidence": "0.0123",
"combined_confidence": "0.0116",
"serve_quality_diff": "0.012",
"first_serve_won_diff": "0.0125",
"second_serve_won_diff": "0.0114",
"bp_saved_diff": "0.0115",
"bp_converted_diff": "0.011",
"aces_per_match_diff": "0.0106",
"last5_wr_diff": "0.0124",
"last3_wr_diff": "0.0129",
"momentum_p1": "0.0129",
"momentum_p2": "0.0108",
"momentum_diff": "0.0122",
"weighted_momentum_diff": "0.0137",
"current_streak_diff": "0.0146",
"days_since_last_match_p1": "0.0118",
"days_since_last_match_p2": "0.0122",
"match_load_p1": "0.0117",
"match_load_p2": "0.0111",
"match_load_diff": "0.0106",
"h2h_wins_diff": "0.0137",
"h2h_matches": "0.0117",
"h2h_win_rate_p1": "0.0088",
"h2h_on_surface": "0.0",
"h2h_recency_weighted": "0.0131",
"h2h_confidence_score": "0.0124",
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": "0.0133",
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": "0.0118",
"tiebreak_wr_p1": "0.012",
"tiebreak_wr_p2": "0.0121",
"serve_consistency_p1": "0.0104",
"serve_consistency_p2": "0.0109",
"surface_rank_synergy": "0.0307",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": "0.0122",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": "0.0119",
"elite_surface_amplifier": "0.0174",
"utr_diff": "0.0839",
"utr_p1": "0.0118",
"utr_p2": "0.0114",
"utr_advantage": "0.1087",
"utr_both_pro": "0.0161",
"utr_available": "0.0118"
}
}