Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Minaur
ATP Finals | Hard |
11 Nov 2025, 19:30
11 Nov 2025, 19:30
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Lorenzo … | Alex … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking
#8
UTR Rating
16.04 Pro
UTR Ranking
#8
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
38/69 = 55.1%
Alex de Minaur
Ranking
#7
UTR Rating
16.07 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
69/98 = 70.4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -1.0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0.8750 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0.1335 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0.0000 | |
| points_diff | -95.0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0.0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -13.9450 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -14.8133 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0.7041 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2.0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 56.6216 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 70.5666 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 54.7945 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 69.6078 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 69.0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 98.0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0.1014 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1.0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1.0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1.0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -1.7071 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -2.2190 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1.9060 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3.7090 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -6.7243 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0.0129 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0.2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0.0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30.0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 28.0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 2.0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 3.5500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0.0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1.0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2.0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 6.0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4.0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2.0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 2.0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2.0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1.0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0.0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1.0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0.4000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1.0466 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0.8981 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0.5152 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0.6071 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4.9955 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9.8214 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 1.8621 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0.0672 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0.2047 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0.0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0.0300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0.9459 | |
| utr_p2 | 0.9494 | |
| utr_advantage | -0.1869 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1.0000 | |
| utr_available | 1.0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0.0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0.0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0.0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
surface_wr_diff
0.1032
surface_rank_synergy
0.0540
points_diff
0.0344
utr_diff
0.0324
utr_advantage
0.0308
rank_tier_advantage
0.0300
rank_advantage
0.0264
surface_wr_diff_adjusted
0.0206
log_rank_ratio
0.0186
utr_available
0.0172
Info del Partido
Match ID
12071
API ID
15023098
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
ATP Finals
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
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"match": {
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"api_id": 15023098,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Lorenzo Musetti",
"player2": "Alex de Minaur",
"tournament": "ATP Finals",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2025-11-11T19:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
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"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
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"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
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}
},
"prediction": null,
"player_stats": {
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"wr_surface": 55.072463768115945,
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"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
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"utr_singles": 16.07,
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"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
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"form_l10_matches": 10
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},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 8,
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"p2": {
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"features": {
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"surface_wr_p1_stable": 54.794520547945204,
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"p1_surface_matches": 69,
"p2_surface_matches": 98,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.10144927536231885,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"serve_quality_diff": -1.7070718873207298,
"first_serve_won_diff": -2.2189899934289627,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.9059943074681414,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.709040819096046,
"bp_converted_diff": -6.724260335123695,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.012889299182903713,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 28.000000000000004,
"momentum_diff": 2.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 3.5500000000000043,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"match_load_p1": 6,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"h2h_wins_diff": 2,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.4,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0466321243523315,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8981324278438031,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5151515151515151,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6071428571428571,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.995506268792899,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.821352723479587,
"surface_rank_synergy": 1.8620918748304298,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0672162162162162,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.20466596194503162,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -0.0,
"utr_diff": -0.030000000000001137,
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"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 2,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
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"feature_importance": {
"rank_advantage": "0.0264",
"rank_ratio": "0.0154",
"log_rank_ratio": "0.0186",
"rank_tier_advantage": "0.03",
"points_diff": "0.0344",
"best_rank_diff": "0.0156",
"surface_wr_diff": "0.1032",
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": "0.0206",
"surface_matches_ratio": "0.0126",
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": "0.0128",
"surface_wr_p1": "0.0156",
"surface_wr_p2": "0.0157",
"surface_wr_p1_stable": "0.0122",
"surface_wr_p2_stable": "0.0125",
"p1_surface_matches": "0.0123",
"p2_surface_matches": "0.0123",
"p1_surface_dominance": "0.0134",
"p1_confidence": "0.0145",
"p2_confidence": "0.0121",
"combined_confidence": "0.0143",
"serve_quality_diff": "0.0122",
"first_serve_won_diff": "0.0125",
"second_serve_won_diff": "0.012",
"bp_saved_diff": "0.0121",
"bp_converted_diff": "0.0122",
"aces_per_match_diff": "0.0118",
"last5_wr_diff": "0.0115",
"last3_wr_diff": "0.0125",
"momentum_p1": "0.013",
"momentum_p2": "0.0115",
"momentum_diff": "0.0127",
"weighted_momentum_diff": "0.0119",
"current_streak_diff": "0.0129",
"days_since_last_match_p1": "0.0132",
"days_since_last_match_p2": "0.0114",
"match_load_p1": "0.012",
"match_load_p2": "0.0124",
"match_load_diff": "0.0123",
"h2h_wins_diff": "0.0133",
"h2h_matches": "0.0152",
"h2h_win_rate_p1": "0.0028",
"h2h_on_surface": "0.0059",
"h2h_recency_weighted": "0.0121",
"h2h_confidence_score": "0.0151",
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": "0.0141",
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": "0.0133",
"tiebreak_wr_p1": "0.0121",
"tiebreak_wr_p2": "0.012",
"serve_consistency_p1": "0.0117",
"serve_consistency_p2": "0.0124",
"surface_rank_synergy": "0.054",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": "0.0125",
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"elite_surface_amplifier": "0.0171",
"utr_diff": "0.0324",
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"utr_p2": "0.0115",
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"utr_both_pro": "0.0149",
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}
}