Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Finals | Hard |
13 Nov 2025, 23:30
13 Nov 2025, 23:30
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Carlos … | Lorenzo … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carlos Alcaraz
Ranking
#1
UTR Rating
16,32 Pro
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
37/43 = 86,0%
Lorenzo Musetti
Ranking
#5
UTR Rating
15,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#9
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/37 = 59,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 4,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 5,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,6094 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 7945,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 4,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 26,1109 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 24,9523 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0870 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 6,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 82,7326 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 56,6216 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 79,7468 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,7945 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 75,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 69,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,6267 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 5,8735 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 5,5018 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,9015 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 3,4277 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 8,0579 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,9761 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 80,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 8,3500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -4,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 3,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 3,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,6000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,3579 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0466 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5238 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5152 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,8211 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,3115 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 42,0239 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,3233 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0702 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,5500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9788 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9141 | |
| utr_advantage | 3,4279 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
utr_advantage
0,1087
utr_diff
0,0839
surface_wr_diff
0,0685
surface_rank_synergy
0,0307
rank_advantage
0,0208
rank_ratio
0,0191
surface_wr_p1
0,0190
surface_wr_diff_adjusted
0,0184
surface_wr_p2
0,0179
elite_surface_amplifier
0,0174
Info del Partido
Match ID
12100
API ID
15023095
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
ATP Finals
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 12100,
"api_id": 15023095,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Carlos Alcaraz",
"player2": "Lorenzo Musetti",
"tournament": "ATP Finals",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2025-11-13T19:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
}
},
"prediction": null,
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 1,
"utr_singles": 16.32,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 86.04651162790698,
"wr_surface_wins": 37,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 5,
"utr_singles": 15.77,
"utr_ranking": 9,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 59.45945945945946,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 37,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 16.32,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.77,
"ranking": 9,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"rank_advantage": 4,
"rank_ratio": 5.0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.6094379124341003,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"points_diff": 7945,
"best_rank_diff": 4,
"surface_wr_diff": 26.110936517913267,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 24.952314895092776,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0869565217391304,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 6,
"surface_wr_p1": 82.73255813953489,
"surface_wr_p2": 56.62162162162162,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 79.74683544303798,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.794520547945204,
"p1_surface_matches": 75,
"p2_surface_matches": 69,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.6266666666666667,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"serve_quality_diff": 5.873502278441229,
"first_serve_won_diff": 5.5018420018856204,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.9014546668761767,
"bp_saved_diff": 3.427711934318033,
"bp_converted_diff": 8.057925636392198,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.9760724387177868,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.20000000000000007,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"momentum_p1": 80.0,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"momentum_diff": 30.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 8.349999999999994,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 2,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 6,
"match_load_diff": -4,
"h2h_wins_diff": 3,
"h2h_matches": 3,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.6,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.3578732106339468,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0466321243523315,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5151515151515151,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.821098819349867,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.3114788899301635,
"surface_rank_synergy": 42.02393116108964,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.32332558139534884,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.07021621621621621,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"utr_diff": 0.5500000000000007,
"utr_p1": 0.9788235294117648,
"utr_p2": 0.9141176470588235,
"utr_advantage": 3.4278591461514534,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 3,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {
"rank_advantage": "0.0208",
"rank_ratio": "0.0191",
"log_rank_ratio": "0.0159",
"rank_tier_advantage": "0.0126",
"points_diff": "0.0137",
"best_rank_diff": "0.0166",
"surface_wr_diff": "0.0685",
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": "0.0184",
"surface_matches_ratio": "0.0114",
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": "0.0109",
"surface_wr_p1": "0.019",
"surface_wr_p2": "0.0179",
"surface_wr_p1_stable": "0.0121",
"surface_wr_p2_stable": "0.0116",
"p1_surface_matches": "0.0114",
"p2_surface_matches": "0.0115",
"p1_surface_dominance": "0.0127",
"p1_confidence": "0.0097",
"p2_confidence": "0.0123",
"combined_confidence": "0.0116",
"serve_quality_diff": "0.012",
"first_serve_won_diff": "0.0125",
"second_serve_won_diff": "0.0114",
"bp_saved_diff": "0.0115",
"bp_converted_diff": "0.011",
"aces_per_match_diff": "0.0106",
"last5_wr_diff": "0.0124",
"last3_wr_diff": "0.0129",
"momentum_p1": "0.0129",
"momentum_p2": "0.0108",
"momentum_diff": "0.0122",
"weighted_momentum_diff": "0.0137",
"current_streak_diff": "0.0146",
"days_since_last_match_p1": "0.0118",
"days_since_last_match_p2": "0.0122",
"match_load_p1": "0.0117",
"match_load_p2": "0.0111",
"match_load_diff": "0.0106",
"h2h_wins_diff": "0.0137",
"h2h_matches": "0.0117",
"h2h_win_rate_p1": "0.0088",
"h2h_on_surface": "0.0",
"h2h_recency_weighted": "0.0131",
"h2h_confidence_score": "0.0124",
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": "0.0133",
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": "0.0118",
"tiebreak_wr_p1": "0.012",
"tiebreak_wr_p2": "0.0121",
"serve_consistency_p1": "0.0104",
"serve_consistency_p2": "0.0109",
"surface_rank_synergy": "0.0307",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": "0.0122",
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": "0.0119",
"elite_surface_amplifier": "0.0174",
"utr_diff": "0.0839",
"utr_p1": "0.0118",
"utr_p2": "0.0114",
"utr_advantage": "0.1087",
"utr_both_pro": "0.0161",
"utr_available": "0.0118"
}
}