Pavel Lagutin vs Miguel Semedo
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07 | Hard |
12 Dic 2025, 00:00
12 Dic 2025, 00:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Pavel Lagutin
Pavel …: 61,3%
Miguel …: 38,7%
¿Por qué Pavel Lagutin?
UTR 13,44 vs 12,00
(+1,50)
— Ligera ventaja
Pavel …
W57-L16
78% WR
vs UTR 12,3
W1
Miguel …
W10-L10
50% WR
vs UTR 12,1
L3
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Pavel … | Miguel … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,22 | 4,00 | 81,8% |
| Gamdom | 1,14 | 4,17 | 87,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,63 | 2,58 | 61,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Pavel …: -15,3%
Miguel …: +15,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Pavel Lagutin
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,44 Pro
UTR Ranking
#733
Forma L5
100% (2p)
Forma L10
100% (2p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Miguel Semedo
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,00 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1654
Forma L5
0% (2p)
Forma L10
0% (2p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Pavel Lagutin
Record 2025
57W - 16L (78%)
Racha
1W
UTR Oponentes
12,3
Últimos 5:
W
L
W
L
L
Miguel Semedo
Record 2025
10W - 10L (50%)
Racha
3L
UTR Oponentes
12,1
Últimos 5:
L
L
L
W
L
Análisis Momentum
Momentum similar entre ambos jugadores.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,5000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,5000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 50,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 25,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 0,5051 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,5000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,6471 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4706 | |
| utr_advantage | 11,7647 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
18637
API ID
15184603
Gamdom ID
508267
Torneo
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 18637,
"api_id": 15184603,
"gamdom_id": 508267,
"player1": "Pavel Lagutin",
"player2": "Miguel Semedo",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2025-12-11T20:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.2222222222222223,
"p2": 4.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.14,
"p2": 4.17
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.21,
"p2": 4.05
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.613,
"prob_p2": 0.387,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.613,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.44,
"utr_ranking": 733,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 57,
"utr_v4_losses": 16,
"utr_v4_wr": 78.08219178082192,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.33,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.29,
"opponent_name": "Diego Augusto Barreto Sanchez"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.72,
"opponent_name": "Pedro Rodenas"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.6,
"opponent_name": "Xavi Palomar"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.63,
"opponent_name": "Abel Forger"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.5,
"opponent_name": "Tiago Cacao"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:10.072359+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 2,
"form_l10_matches": 2
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 1654,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 10,
"utr_v4_losses": 10,
"utr_v4_wr": 50.0,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 3,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.07,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.58,
"opponent_name": "Sean HODKIN"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.58,
"opponent_name": "Sean HODKIN"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.57,
"opponent_name": "Tiago Torres"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Samuel De Felipe Garcia"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.77,
"opponent_name": "Sam Ryan Ziegann"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:49.393031+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 0.0,
"form_l5_matches": 2,
"form_l10_matches": 2
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.44,
"ranking": 733,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 1654,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
"utr_p2": 0.47058823529411764,
"utr_diff": 1.5,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 0.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.5,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.5,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": 50.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 11.76470588235294,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -2,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.0,
"serve_consistency_p2": 0.5050505050505087,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 25.0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 30,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}