Sebastian Fanselow vs Pavel Lagutin
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07 | Hard |
11 Dic 2025, 14:00
Sofascore
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastian Fanselow
Sebastian …: 58,7% Pavel …: 41,3%
¿Por qué Sebastian Fanselow?
UTR 13,04 vs 13,44 (-0,24) — Niveles similares
Sebastian …
W21-L20
51% WR
vs UTR 13,1
W4
Pavel …
W57-L16
78% WR
vs UTR 12,3
W1
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sebastian … Pavel … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,40 36,4%
Gamdom 6,13 1,04 16,3%
IA Fair Odds 1,70 2,42 58,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Sebastian …: +25,0% Pavel …: -25,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastian Fanselow
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #1058
Forma L5 100% (2p)
Forma L10 100% (2p)
WR Hard 2/3 = 66,7%
Pavel Lagutin
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,44 Pro
UTR Ranking #733
Forma L5 100% (1p)
Forma L10 100% (1p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Sebastian Fanselow
Record 2025 21W - 20L (51%)
Racha 4W
UTR Oponentes 13,1
Últimos 5:
W W W W L
Pavel Lagutin
Record 2025 57W - 16L (78%)
Racha 1W
UTR Oponentes 12,3
Últimos 5:
W L W L L
Análisis Momentum
Sebastian Fanselow en racha: 4 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 60,1667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -0,9877
surface_matches_ratio 23,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,1667
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,1481
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 23,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0435
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7667
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,5333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 48,5980
first_serve_won_diff 57,3100
second_serve_won_diff 53,4100
bp_saved_diff 62,1340
bp_converted_diff 45,4040
aces_per_match_diff 1,9600
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,5000
last3_wr_diff 0,5000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 50,0000
current_streak_diff 2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 30,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4444
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 0,4049
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1017
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2400
utr_p1 0,6188
utr_p2 0,6471
utr_advantage -1,7937
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 18641
API ID 15184602
Gamdom ID 508257
Torneo UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 18641,
    "api_id": 15184602,
    "gamdom_id": 508257,
    "player1": "Sebastian Fanselow",
    "player2": "Pavel Lagutin",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-11T10:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 6.13,
      "p2": 1.04
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.14,
      "p2": 1.33
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5869,
    "prob_p2": 0.4131,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5869,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.04,
      "utr_ranking": 1058,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 21,
      "utr_v4_losses": 20,
      "utr_v4_wr": 51.21951219512195,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 4,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.12,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.9,
          "opponent_name": "Goncalo Quintela"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.36,
          "opponent_name": "Karol Malirz"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.66,
          "opponent_name": "Jack Loge"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.25,
          "opponent_name": "Joao Domingues"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.17,
          "opponent_name": "Alastair Gray"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:31.652872+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 3,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 2,
      "form_l10_matches": 2
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.44,
      "utr_ranking": 733,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 57,
      "utr_v4_losses": 16,
      "utr_v4_wr": 78.08219178082192,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.33,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.29,
          "opponent_name": "Diego Augusto Barreto Sanchez"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.72,
          "opponent_name": "Pedro Rodenas"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.6,
          "opponent_name": "Xavi Palomar"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.63,
          "opponent_name": "Abel Forger"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.5,
          "opponent_name": "Tiago Cacao"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:10.072359+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.04,
      "ranking": 1058,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.44,
      "ranking": 733,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6188235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.6470588235294118,
    "utr_diff": -0.2400000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 100.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 62.134,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.5,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.5,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 50.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.16666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.793721973094172,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 60.16666666666666,
    "bp_converted_diff": 45.403999999999996,
    "p1_surface_matches": 23,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 48.598,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.96,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 57.31,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.043478260869565216,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 0.40485829959514064,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.148148148148145,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 53.410000000000004,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 23.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 50.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10166666666666657,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.9876543209876558,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}