Sebastian Fanselow vs Pavel Lagutin
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07 | Hard |
10 Dec 2025, 17:30
Sofascore
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastian Fanselow
Sebastian …: 58.7% Pavel …: 41.3%
¿Por qué Sebastian Fanselow?
UTR 13.26 vs 13.50 (-0.24) — Niveles similares
Sebastian …
W21-L20
51% WR
vs UTR 13.1
W4
Pavel …
W57-L16
78% WR
vs UTR 12.3
W1
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sebastian … Pavel … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2.75 1.40 36.4%
IA Fair Odds 1.70 2.42 58.7%
Edge vs Mercado: Sebastian …: +25.0% Pavel …: -25.0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastian Fanselow
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13.26 Pro
UTR Ranking #837
Forma L5 100% (2p)
Forma L10 100% (2p)
WR Hard 11/23 = 47.8%
Pavel Lagutin
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13.50 Pro
UTR Ranking #688
Forma L5 50% (0p)
Forma L10 50% (0p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0.0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Sebastian Fanselow
Record 2025 21W - 20L (51%)
Racha 4W
UTR Oponentes 13.1
Últimos 5:
W W W W L
Pavel Lagutin
Record 2025 57W - 16L (78%)
Racha 1W
UTR Oponentes 12.3
Últimos 5:
W L W L L
Análisis Momentum
Sebastian Fanselow en racha: 4 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0.0000
rank_ratio 1.0000
log_rank_ratio 0.0000
rank_tier_advantage 0.0000
points_diff 0.0000
best_rank_diff 0.0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 60.1667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -0.9877
surface_matches_ratio 23.0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0.0000
surface_wr_p1 60.1667
surface_wr_p2 0.0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 48.1481
surface_wr_p2_stable 50.0000
p1_surface_matches 23.0000
p2_surface_matches 0.0000
p1_surface_dominance -0.0435
Confianza
p1_confidence 0.7667
p2_confidence 0.3000
combined_confidence 0.5333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 48.5980
first_serve_won_diff 57.3100
second_serve_won_diff 53.4100
bp_saved_diff 62.1340
bp_converted_diff 45.4040
aces_per_match_diff 1.9600
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0.5000
last3_wr_diff 0.5000
momentum_p1 100.0000
momentum_p2 50.0000
momentum_diff 50.0000
weighted_momentum_diff 50.0000
current_streak_diff 2.0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1.0000
days_since_last_match_p2 30.0000
match_load_p1 2.0000
match_load_p2 0.0000
match_load_diff 2.0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0.0000
h2h_matches 0.0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0.5000
h2h_on_surface 0.0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0.5000
h2h_confidence_score 0.0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0.0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0.0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0.4444
tiebreak_wr_p2 0.0000
serve_consistency_p1 0.4049
serve_consistency_p2 10.0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0.0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0.1017
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0.5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0.0000
UTR
utr_diff -0.2400
utr_p1 0.6188
utr_p2 0.6471
utr_advantage -1.7937
utr_both_pro 1.0000
utr_available 1.0000
utr_expected_prob 0.0000
utr_closeness 0.0000
utr_data_quality 0.0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 18641
API ID 15184602
Gamdom ID -
Torneo UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status scheduled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 18641,
    "api_id": 15184602,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Sebastian Fanselow",
    "player2": "Pavel Lagutin",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-10T17:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "scheduled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.67,
      "p2": 1.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5869,
    "prob_p2": 0.4131,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5869,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.26,
      "utr_ranking": 837,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 21,
      "utr_v4_losses": 20,
      "utr_v4_wr": 51.21951219512195,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 4,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.12,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.9,
          "opponent_name": "Goncalo Quintela"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.36,
          "opponent_name": "Karol Malirz"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.66,
          "opponent_name": "Jack Loge"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.25,
          "opponent_name": "Joao Domingues"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.17,
          "opponent_name": "Alastair Gray"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:31.652872+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 47.82608695652174,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 2,
      "form_l10_matches": 2
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.5,
      "utr_ranking": 688,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 57,
      "utr_v4_losses": 16,
      "utr_v4_wr": 78.08219178082192,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.33,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.29,
          "opponent_name": "Diego Augusto Barreto Sanchez"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.72,
          "opponent_name": "Pedro Rodenas"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.6,
          "opponent_name": "Xavi Palomar"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.63,
          "opponent_name": "Abel Forger"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.5,
          "opponent_name": "Tiago Cacao"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:10.072359+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50,
      "form_l10_wr": 50,
      "form_l5_matches": 0,
      "form_l10_matches": 0
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.26,
      "ranking": 837,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.5,
      "ranking": 688,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.6470588235294118,
    "utr_diff": -0.2400000000000002,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 100.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 62.134,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.5,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.5,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 50.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.16666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -1.793721973094172,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 60.16666666666666,
    "bp_converted_diff": 45.403999999999996,
    "p1_surface_matches": 23,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 48.598,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.96,
    "combined_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 57.31,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.043478260869565216,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 0.40485829959514064,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.148148148148145,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 53.410000000000004,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 23.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 50.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10166666666666657,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.9876543209876558,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}