Sebastian Fanselow vs Pavel Lagutin
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07 | Hard |
10 Dec 2025, 17:30
10 Dec 2025, 17:30
Sofascore
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sebastian Fanselow
Sebastian …: 58.7%
Pavel …: 41.3%
¿Por qué Sebastian Fanselow?
UTR 13.26 vs 13.50
(-0.24)
— Niveles similares
Sebastian …
W21-L20
51% WR
vs UTR 13.1
W4
Pavel …
W57-L16
78% WR
vs UTR 12.3
W1
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Sebastian … | Pavel … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2.75 | 1.40 | 36.4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1.70 | 2.42 | 58.7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Sebastian …: +25.0%
Pavel …: -25.0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sebastian Fanselow
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13.26 Pro
UTR Ranking
#837
Forma L5
100% (2p)
Forma L10
100% (2p)
WR Hard
11/23 = 47.8%
Pavel Lagutin
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13.50 Pro
UTR Ranking
#688
Forma L5
50% (0p)
Forma L10
50% (0p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0.0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Sebastian Fanselow
Record 2025
21W - 20L (51%)
Racha
4W
UTR Oponentes
13.1
Últimos 5:
W
W
W
W
L
Pavel Lagutin
Record 2025
57W - 16L (78%)
Racha
1W
UTR Oponentes
12.3
Últimos 5:
W
L
W
L
L
Análisis Momentum
Sebastian Fanselow en racha: 4 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0.0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1.0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0.0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0.0000 | |
| points_diff | 0.0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0.0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 60.1667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -0.9877 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 23.0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0.0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60.1667 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0.0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48.1481 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50.0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 23.0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0.0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0.0435 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0.7667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0.3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0.5333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 48.5980 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 57.3100 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 53.4100 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 62.1340 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 45.4040 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1.9600 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0.5000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0.5000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100.0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50.0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 50.0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 50.0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 2.0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1.0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 30.0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2.0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0.0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2.0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0.0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0.0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0.5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0.0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0.5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0.0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0.0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0.0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0.4444 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0.0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 0.4049 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10.0000 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0.0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0.1017 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0.5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0.0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0.2400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0.6188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0.6471 | |
| utr_advantage | -1.7937 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1.0000 | |
| utr_available | 1.0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0.0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0.0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0.0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
18641
API ID
15184602
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
scheduled
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 18641,
"api_id": 15184602,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Sebastian Fanselow",
"player2": "Pavel Lagutin",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 07",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2025-12-10T17:30:00+00:00",
"status": "scheduled"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.75,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.67,
"p2": 1.42
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5869,
"prob_p2": 0.4131,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5869,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.26,
"utr_ranking": 837,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 21,
"utr_v4_losses": 20,
"utr_v4_wr": 51.21951219512195,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 4,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.12,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.9,
"opponent_name": "Goncalo Quintela"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.36,
"opponent_name": "Karol Malirz"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.66,
"opponent_name": "Jack Loge"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.25,
"opponent_name": "Joao Domingues"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.17,
"opponent_name": "Alastair Gray"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:31.652872+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 47.82608695652174,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 2,
"form_l10_matches": 2
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.5,
"utr_ranking": 688,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 57,
"utr_v4_losses": 16,
"utr_v4_wr": 78.08219178082192,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.33,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.29,
"opponent_name": "Diego Augusto Barreto Sanchez"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.72,
"opponent_name": "Pedro Rodenas"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.6,
"opponent_name": "Xavi Palomar"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.63,
"opponent_name": "Abel Forger"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.5,
"opponent_name": "Tiago Cacao"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:10.072359+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 50,
"form_l10_wr": 50,
"form_l5_matches": 0,
"form_l10_matches": 0
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.26,
"ranking": 837,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 13.5,
"ranking": 688,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.6188235294117647,
"utr_p2": 0.6470588235294118,
"utr_diff": -0.2400000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 100.0,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 62.134,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.5,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.5,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 50.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.16666666666666,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -1.793721973094172,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 60.16666666666666,
"bp_converted_diff": 45.403999999999996,
"p1_surface_matches": 23,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 48.598,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.96,
"combined_confidence": 0.5333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 2,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 57.31,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.043478260869565216,
"serve_consistency_p1": 0.40485829959514064,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.148148148148145,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 53.410000000000004,
"surface_matches_ratio": 23.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 50.0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.10166666666666657,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -0.9876543209876558,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}