Maciej Rajski vs Tarek Erlewein
UTR PTT Honolulu Men +H 01 | Hard |
10 Dec 2025, 20:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maciej Rajski
Maciej …: 60.3% Tarek …: 39.7%
¿Por qué Maciej Rajski?
UTR 13.47 vs 12.62 (+0.85) — Niveles similares
Maciej …
W81-L17
83% WR
vs UTR 12.2
W1
Tarek …
W27-L12
69% WR
vs UTR 11.7
W1
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maciej … Tarek … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1.50 2.50 66.7%
IA Fair Odds 1.66 2.52 60.3%
Edge vs Mercado: Maciej …: -2.2% Tarek …: +2.2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maciej Rajski
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13.47 Pro
UTR Ranking #707
Forma L5 33% (3p)
Forma L10 33% (3p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0.0%
Tarek Erlewein
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12.62 General
UTR Ranking #2108
Forma L5 67% (3p)
Forma L10 67% (3p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0.0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Maciej Rajski
Record 2025 81W - 17L (83%)
Racha 1W
UTR Oponentes 12.2
Últimos 5:
W L W W L
Tarek Erlewein
Record 2025 27W - 12L (69%)
Racha 1W
UTR Oponentes 11.7
Últimos 5:
W L W W L
Análisis Momentum
Maciej Rajski ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 12.2 vs 11.7).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0.0000
rank_ratio 1.0000
log_rank_ratio 0.0000
rank_tier_advantage 0.0000
points_diff 0.0000
best_rank_diff 0.0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0.0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0.0000
surface_matches_ratio 0.0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0.0000
surface_wr_p1 0.0000
surface_wr_p2 0.0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50.0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50.0000
p1_surface_matches 0.0000
p2_surface_matches 0.0000
p1_surface_dominance 0.0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0.3000
p2_confidence 0.3000
combined_confidence 0.3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0.0000
first_serve_won_diff 0.0000
second_serve_won_diff 0.0000
bp_saved_diff 0.0000
bp_converted_diff 0.0000
aces_per_match_diff 0.0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0.6667
last3_wr_diff -0.6667
momentum_p1 22.2222
momentum_p2 100.0000
momentum_diff -77.7778
weighted_momentum_diff -58.3333
current_streak_diff -4.0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1.0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2.0000
match_load_p1 3.0000
match_load_p2 2.0000
match_load_diff 1.0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0.0000
h2h_matches 0.0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0.5000
h2h_on_surface 0.0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0.5000
h2h_confidence_score 0.0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0.0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0.0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0.0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0.0000
serve_consistency_p1 3.9284
serve_consistency_p2 9.1864
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0.0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0.5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0.5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0.0000
UTR
utr_diff 0.8500
utr_p1 0.6435
utr_p2 0.5435
utr_advantage 6.5159
utr_both_pro 1.0000
utr_available 1.0000
utr_expected_prob 0.0000
utr_closeness 0.0000
utr_data_quality 0.0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 18670
API ID 15182172
Gamdom ID -
Torneo UTR PTT Honolulu Men +H 01
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status scheduled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 18670,
    "api_id": 15182172,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Maciej Rajski",
    "player2": "Tarek Erlewein",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Honolulu Men +H 01",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-10T20:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "scheduled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.49,
      "p2": 2.47
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6032,
    "prob_p2": 0.3968,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6032,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.47,
      "utr_ranking": 707,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 81,
      "utr_v4_losses": 17,
      "utr_v4_wr": 82.6530612244898,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.19,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Kosuke Nakanishi"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Matteo Huarte"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.38,
          "opponent_name": "Carson Baker"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Luca Ostovany"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.98,
          "opponent_name": "Iiro Vasa"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:29.466451+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l10_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.62,
      "utr_ranking": 2108,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 27,
      "utr_v4_losses": 12,
      "utr_v4_wr": 69.23076923076923,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.65,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "James Newton"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Louis Keller"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.0,
          "opponent_name": "Aaron Sandler"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "KEVIN TITUS SURESH"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Alexander Watanabe Eriksson"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:44.118079+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.47,
      "ranking": 707,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.62,
      "ranking": 2108,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6435294117647059,
    "utr_p2": 0.5435294117647058,
    "utr_diff": 0.8500000000000014,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 22.222222222222225,
    "momentum_p2": 100.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 2,
    "momentum_diff": -77.77777777777777,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 6.5159064775776265,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.9283710065919353,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.186401833460657,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -58.33333333333333,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}