Carson Baker vs Stijn Paardekooper
UTR PTT Honolulu Men +H 01 | Hard |
09 Dec 2025, 23:05
09 Dec 2025, 23:05
Sofascore
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stijn Paardekooper
Carson …: 36.9%
Stijn …: 63.1%
¿Por qué Stijn Paardekooper?
UTR 12.00 vs 13.24
(-1.24)
— Ligera ventaja
Carson …
W32-L24
57% WR
vs UTR 12.0
L1
Stijn …
W104-L36
74% WR
vs UTR 12.5
W3
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Carson … | Stijn … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4.33 | 1.20 | 23.1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2.71 | 1.58 | 36.9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Carson …: +15.2%
Stijn …: -15.2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carson Baker
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12.00 General
UTR Ranking
#2832
Forma L5
0% (2p)
Forma L10
0% (2p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0.0%
Stijn Paardekooper
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13.24 Pro
UTR Ranking
#848
Forma L5
50% (2p)
Forma L10
50% (2p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0.0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Carson Baker
Record 2025
32W - 24L (57%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
12.0
Últimos 5:
L
W
L
L
W
Stijn Paardekooper
Record 2025
104W - 36L (74%)
Racha
3W
UTR Oponentes
12.5
Últimos 5:
W
W
W
L
W
Análisis Momentum
Stijn Paardekooper en racha: 3 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0.0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1.0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0.0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0.0000 | |
| points_diff | 0.0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0.0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0.0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0.0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0.0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0.0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0.0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0.0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50.0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50.0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0.0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0.0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0.0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0.3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0.3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0.3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0.0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0.0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0.0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0.0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0.0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0.0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0.5000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0.5000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 0.0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 42.8571 | |
| momentum_diff | -42.8571 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -32.1429 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1.0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0.0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1.0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 2.0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 2.0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0.0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0.0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0.0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0.5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0.0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0.5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0.0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0.0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0.0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0.0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0.0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 0.5169 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5.0000 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0.0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0.5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0.5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0.0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1.2400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0.4706 | |
| utr_p2 | 0.6165 | |
| utr_advantage | -9.8257 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0.0000 | |
| utr_available | 1.0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0.0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0.0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0.0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
18675
API ID
15182180
Gamdom ID
-
Torneo
UTR PTT Honolulu Men +H 01
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 18675,
"api_id": 15182180,
"gamdom_id": null,
"player1": "Carson Baker",
"player2": "Stijn Paardekooper",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Honolulu Men +H 01",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2025-12-09T23:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.333333333333334,
"p2": 1.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 4.09,
"p2": 1.2
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3686,
"prob_p2": 0.6314,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6314,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 2832,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 32,
"utr_v4_losses": 24,
"utr_v4_wr": 57.14285714285714,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.01,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Luc Wieland"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Luca Ostovany"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.47,
"opponent_name": "Maciej Rajski"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Matteo Huarte"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Joel Gibson"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:55:45.415408+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 0.0,
"form_l5_matches": 2,
"form_l10_matches": 2
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.24,
"utr_ranking": 848,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 104,
"utr_v4_losses": 36,
"utr_v4_wr": 74.28571428571429,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 3,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.51,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Hikaru Takahashi"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Oren Ezerzer"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.64,
"opponent_name": "Roberto Ferrer Guimaraes"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.11,
"opponent_name": "Ryan Fishback"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.03,
"opponent_name": "Gabriele Vulpitta"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:41.739445+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 50.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 2,
"form_l10_matches": 2
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 2832,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 13.24,
"ranking": 848,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.47058823529411764,
"utr_p2": 0.6164705882352941,
"utr_diff": -1.2400000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 0.0,
"momentum_p2": 42.85714285714286,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.5,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.5,
"match_load_p1": 2,
"match_load_p2": 2,
"momentum_diff": -42.85714285714286,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -9.825673534072902,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 0.5169172932330817,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.0,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -32.14285714285714,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}