Carson Baker vs Tarek Erlewein
UTR PTT Honolulu Men +H 01 | Hard | Semifinals
12 Dic 2025, 23:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tarek Erlewein
Carson …: 41,8% Tarek …: 58,2%
¿Por qué Tarek Erlewein?
UTR 12,00 vs 12,62 (-0,62) — Niveles similares
Carson …
W32-L24
57% WR
vs UTR 12,0
L1
Tarek …
W27-L12
69% WR
vs UTR 11,7
W1
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carson … Tarek … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,63 1,44 38,1%
Gamdom 2,40 1,42 41,7%
IA Fair Odds 2,39 1,72 41,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Carson …: +6,3% Tarek …: -6,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carson Baker
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #2413
Forma L5 25% (4p)
Forma L10 25% (4p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Tarek Erlewein
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,62 General
UTR Ranking #2088
Forma L5 50% (4p)
Forma L10 50% (4p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Carson Baker
Record 2025 32W - 24L (57%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 12,0
Últimos 5:
L W L L W
Tarek Erlewein
Record 2025 27W - 12L (69%)
Racha 1W
UTR Oponentes 11,7
Últimos 5:
W L W W L
Análisis Momentum
Carson Baker ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 12,0 vs 11,7).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2500
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 40,8163
momentum_p2 28,5714
momentum_diff 12,2449
weighted_momentum_diff 9,1837
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 3,4476
serve_consistency_p2 12,6284
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,6200
utr_p1 0,4706
utr_p2 0,5435
utr_advantage -5,0366
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 19336
API ID 15207812
Gamdom ID 521630
Torneo UTR PTT Honolulu Men +H 01
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 19336,
    "api_id": 15207812,
    "gamdom_id": 521630,
    "player1": "Carson Baker",
    "player2": "Tarek Erlewein",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Honolulu Men +H 01",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2025-12-12T19:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.625,
      "p2": 1.4444444444444444
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.4,
      "p2": 1.42
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.55,
      "p2": 1.45
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4183,
    "prob_p2": 0.5817,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5817,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 2413,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 32,
      "utr_v4_losses": 24,
      "utr_v4_wr": 57.14285714285714,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.01,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Luc Wieland"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Luca Ostovany"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.47,
          "opponent_name": "Maciej Rajski"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Matteo Huarte"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Joel Gibson"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:55:45.415408+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 25.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 25.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.62,
      "utr_ranking": 2088,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 27,
      "utr_v4_losses": 12,
      "utr_v4_wr": 69.23076923076923,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.65,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "James Newton"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Louis Keller"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.0,
          "opponent_name": "Aaron Sandler"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "KEVIN TITUS SURESH"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Alexander Watanabe Eriksson"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:44.118079+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 2413,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.62,
      "ranking": 2088,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.47058823529411764,
    "utr_p2": 0.5435294117647058,
    "utr_diff": -0.6199999999999992,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.816326530612244,
    "momentum_p2": 28.571428571428577,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.25,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 12.244897959183668,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -5.036555645816403,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.447616250256976,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.628423825140239,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 9.183673469387756,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}