Jera Staley vs Dimitri Bagaric
UTR PTT Melbourne Men 01 | Hard | Semifinals
12 Dic 2025, 07:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Dimitri Bagaric
Jera …: 39,2% Dimitri …: 60,8%
¿Por qué Dimitri Bagaric?
UTR 12,00 vs 11,00 (-1,38) — Ligera ventaja
Jera …
W28-L33
46% WR
vs UTR 11,6
L7
Dimitri …
W10-L4
71% WR
vs UTR 10,6
W1
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jera … Dimitri … Prob Impl. P1
IA Fair Odds 2,55 1,64 39,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jera Staley
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #3782
Forma L5 50% (4p)
Forma L10 50% (4p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Dimitri Bagaric
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 11,00 Junior
UTR Ranking #1031
Forma L5 50% (4p)
Forma L10 50% (4p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Jera Staley
Record 2025 28W - 33L (46%)
Racha 7L
UTR Oponentes 11,6
Últimos 5:
L L L L L
Dimitri Bagaric
Record 2025 10W - 4L (71%)
Racha 1W
UTR Oponentes 10,6
Últimos 5:
W L W W W
Análisis Momentum
Jera Staley ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 11,6 vs 10,6).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 71,4286
momentum_p2 28,5714
momentum_diff 42,8571
weighted_momentum_diff 32,1429
current_streak_diff 4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 9,7620
serve_consistency_p2 12,8454
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,3800
utr_p1 0,3529
utr_p2 0,5153
utr_advantage -11,8054
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,5000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 19357
API ID 15208016
Gamdom ID -
Torneo UTR PTT Melbourne Men 01
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 19357,
    "api_id": 15208016,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Jera Staley",
    "player2": "Dimitri Bagaric",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Melbourne Men 01",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2025-12-12T03:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3919,
    "prob_p2": 0.6081,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6081,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 3782,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 28,
      "utr_v4_losses": 33,
      "utr_v4_wr": 45.90163934426229,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 7,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.58,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.52,
          "opponent_name": "Jack Bruce-Smith"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.49,
          "opponent_name": "Ashton McLeod"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Asher Brownrigg"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Oliver Wilcox"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Luca CONNAUGHTON"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:52.148105+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 11.0,
      "utr_ranking": 1031,
      "utr_division": "Junior",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 10,
      "utr_v4_losses": 4,
      "utr_v4_wr": 71.42857142857143,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 10.56,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Corey GAAL"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Vincent Stouff"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Keizo Yoshii"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Liam Kindler"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Jack Bassett"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:02.706445+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 3782,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.0,
      "ranking": 1031,
      "division": "Junior",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.35294117647058826,
    "utr_p2": 0.5152998472463096,
    "utr_diff": -1.3800487015936316,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 71.42857142857143,
    "momentum_p2": 28.571428571428577,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 42.857142857142854,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -11.805353523490007,
    "utr_available": 0.5,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": 4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.762033175705474,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.845389537988062,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 32.14285714285714,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}