Alexander Kotzen vs Aleksandr Kalinin
UTR PTT Knoxville Men 05 | Hard | Semifinals
13 Dic 2025, 23:50
Sofascore
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alexander Kotzen
Alexander …: 79,2% Aleksandr …: 20,8%
¿Por qué Alexander Kotzen?
UTR 13,75 vs 12,00 (+1,75) — Ligera ventaja
Alexander …
W48-L20
71% WR
vs UTR 12,9
L1
Aleksandr …
W39-L22
64% WR
vs UTR 11,6
W2
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (33%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alexander … Aleksandr … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,13 5,50 88,9%
Gamdom 1,10 4,85 90,9%
IA Fair Odds 1,26 4,80 79,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Alexander …: -3,8% Aleksandr …: +3,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alexander Kotzen
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #517
Forma L5 100% (4p)
Forma L10 100% (4p)
WR Hard 0/2 = 0,0%
Aleksandr Kalinin
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #2035
Forma L5 100% (4p)
Forma L10 100% (4p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Alexander Kotzen
Record 2025 48W - 20L (71%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 12,9
Últimos 5:
L W L L W
Aleksandr Kalinin
Record 2025 39W - 22L (64%)
Racha 2W
UTR Oponentes 11,6
Últimos 5:
W W L W L
Análisis Momentum
Alexander Kotzen ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 12,9 vs 11,6).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 20,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,9259
surface_matches_ratio 5,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 1,0000
surface_wr_p1 20,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 32,2222
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 5,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3667
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 59,3845
first_serve_won_diff 68,7550
second_serve_won_diff 58,6900
bp_saved_diff 71,6400
bp_converted_diff 15,0000
aces_per_match_diff 3,7000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 8,2013
serve_consistency_p2 10,0950
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,3000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 1,7500
utr_p1 0,6765
utr_p2 0,4706
utr_advantage 13,5922
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 19390
API ID 15211495
Gamdom ID 523317
Torneo UTR PTT Knoxville Men 05
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 19390,
    "api_id": 15211495,
    "gamdom_id": 523317,
    "player1": "Alexander Kotzen",
    "player2": "Aleksandr Kalinin",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Knoxville Men 05",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2025-12-13T19:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.125,
      "p2": 5.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.1,
      "p2": 4.85
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.09,
      "p2": 6.3
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.7917,
    "prob_p2": 0.2083,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.7917,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.75,
      "utr_ranking": 517,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 48,
      "utr_v4_losses": 20,
      "utr_v4_wr": 70.58823529411765,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.92,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.98,
          "opponent_name": "Lucas Marionneau"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.6,
          "opponent_name": "Nikita Filin"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.95,
          "opponent_name": "Henry Searle"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.26,
          "opponent_name": "Darwin Blanch"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.65,
          "opponent_name": "Kriish Tyagi"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:55:08.793996+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 2,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 2035,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 39,
      "utr_v4_losses": 22,
      "utr_v4_wr": 63.934426229508205,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.56,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Anuj Watane"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "CARLOS GIMENEZ PEREZ"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Oscar Pinto Sansano"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Theo Hegarty"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Bozo Barun"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:55:07.168583+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.75,
      "ranking": 517,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 2035,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6764705882352942,
    "utr_p2": 0.47058823529411764,
    "utr_diff": 1.75,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 71.64,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 19.999999999999996,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 13.592233009708737,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 19.999999999999996,
    "bp_converted_diff": 15.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 5,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 59.384499999999996,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.7,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 68.755,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.201265682427199,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.094955355725224,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 32.22222222222222,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 58.69,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 5.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.30000000000000004,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.925925925925926,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}