Luca Connaughton vs Matt Hulme
UTR PTT Melbourne Men 02 | Hard |
14 Dic 2025, 02:30
14 Dic 2025, 02:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Matt Hulme
Luca …: 40,1%
Matt …: 59,9%
¿Por qué Matt Hulme?
UTR 12,00 vs 12,46
(-0,49)
— Niveles similares
Luca …
W40-L34
54% WR
vs UTR 11,0
W2
Matt …
W35-L29
55% WR
vs UTR 12,5
W1
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Luca … | Matt … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4,50 | 1,17 | 22,2% |
| Gamdom | 4,36 | 1,12 | 22,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,49 | 1,67 | 40,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Luca …: +19,5%
Matt …: -19,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Luca Connaughton
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,00 General
UTR Ranking
#3468
Forma L5
50% (0p)
Forma L10
50% (0p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Matt Hulme
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,46 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1572
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
67% (6p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Luca Connaughton
Record 2025
40W - 34L (54%)
Racha
2W
UTR Oponentes
11,0
Últimos 5:
W
W
L
W
W
Matt Hulme
Record 2025
35W - 29L (55%)
Racha
1W
UTR Oponentes
12,5
Últimos 5:
W
L
L
L
L
Análisis Momentum
Matt Hulme ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 12,5 vs 11,0).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,3000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,1667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -27,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -5,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,4384 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4874 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5038 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5612 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,8907 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,5000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
19457
API ID
15213478
Gamdom ID
524110
Torneo
UTR PTT Melbourne Men 02
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 19457,
"api_id": 15213478,
"gamdom_id": 524110,
"player1": "Luca Connaughton",
"player2": "Matt Hulme",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Melbourne Men 02",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2025-12-13T22:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.5,
"p2": 1.1666666666666667
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 4.36,
"p2": 1.12
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.4
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4009,
"prob_p2": 0.5991,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5991,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 3468,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 40,
"utr_v4_losses": 34,
"utr_v4_wr": 54.054054054054056,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.04,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Ethan DOMINGO"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Evan VASILIADIS"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Aryan KARNANI"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Sehun PARK"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Heaton PANN"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:24.221248+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 50,
"form_l10_wr": 50,
"form_l5_matches": 0,
"form_l10_matches": 0
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.46,
"utr_ranking": 1572,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 35,
"utr_v4_losses": 29,
"utr_v4_wr": 54.6875,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.52,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Tom Neylon"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.64,
"opponent_name": "Takuya Kumasaka"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.83,
"opponent_name": "Marc Polmans"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.38,
"opponent_name": "Hayato Matsuoka"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.06,
"opponent_name": "Calum Puttergill"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:43.661133+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 6
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 3468,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.46,
"ranking": 1572,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.503839704846366,
"utr_p2": 0.5611764705882353,
"utr_diff": -0.48736250880588905,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 70.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.16666666666666663,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.30000000000000004,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": -20.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -3.8907081857324983,
"utr_available": 0.5,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -5,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.0,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.438391930277723,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -27.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 30,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}