Tiago Cacao vs Ander Tarrio Ponte
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08 | Hard |
18 Dic 2025, 13:00
Sofascore
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tiago Cacao
Tiago …: 66,4% Ander …: 33,6%
¿Por qué Tiago Cacao?
UTR 13,54 vs 12,00 (+2,38) — Ventaja clara
Tiago …
W29-L13
69% WR
vs UTR 12,9
L1
Ander …
W22-L32
41% WR
vs UTR 12,1
W2
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Tiago … Ander … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,06 8,00 94,1%
Gamdom 1,16 3,87 86,2%
IA Fair Odds 1,51 2,98 66,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Tiago …: -21,9% Ander …: +21,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tiago Cacao
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,54 Pro
UTR Ranking #662
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 78% (9p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Ander Tarrio Ponte
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #3161
Forma L5 100% (1p)
Forma L10 100% (1p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Tiago Cacao
Record 2025 29W - 13L (69%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 12,9
Últimos 5:
L W W W L
Ander Tarrio Ponte
Record 2025 22W - 32L (41%)
Racha 2W
UTR Oponentes 12,1
Últimos 5:
W W L L L
Análisis Momentum
Momentum similar entre ambos jugadores.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -7,5000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 25,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,1667
momentum_p1 51,0204
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 1,0204
weighted_momentum_diff 13,2653
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 30,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 7,3849
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 2,3782
utr_p1 0,6471
utr_p2 0,3673
utr_advantage 19,3178
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,5000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 19571
API ID 15215085
Gamdom ID 525783
Torneo UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 19571,
    "api_id": 15215085,
    "gamdom_id": 525783,
    "player1": "Tiago Cacao",
    "player2": "Ander Tarrio Ponte",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-18T09:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.0625,
      "p2": 8.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.16,
      "p2": 3.87
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.05,
      "p2": 8.72
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.664,
    "prob_p2": 0.336,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.664,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.54,
      "utr_ranking": 662,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 29,
      "utr_v4_losses": 13,
      "utr_v4_wr": 69.04761904761905,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.88,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.11,
          "opponent_name": "Cezar (2001) Cretu"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.99,
          "opponent_name": "Diego Dedura-Palomero"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.92,
          "opponent_name": "Salvador Monteiro"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.46,
          "opponent_name": "Tomas Curras Abasolo"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.17,
          "opponent_name": "Alastair Gray"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:48.316323+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 77.77777777777779,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 9
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 3161,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 22,
      "utr_v4_losses": 32,
      "utr_v4_wr": 40.74074074074074,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.14,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.07,
          "opponent_name": "Giovanni Ciocca"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.1,
          "opponent_name": "Tommaso Pedretti"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.82,
          "opponent_name": "Robin Bertrand"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.6,
          "opponent_name": "Rodrigo Cruz"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.26,
          "opponent_name": "Sebastian Fanselow"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:55:20.877834+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.54,
      "ranking": 662,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 3161,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
    "utr_p2": 0.36727163596908824,
    "utr_diff": 2.3781910942627498,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 51.02040816326531,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.16666666666666663,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 1.0204081632653086,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 19.3177609603541,
    "utr_available": 0.5,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.384878786051337,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 25.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 13.265306122448976,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.5,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}