Tiago Cacao vs Ander Tarrio Ponte
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08 | Hard |
18 Dic 2025, 13:00
18 Dic 2025, 13:00
Sofascore
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Tiago Cacao
Tiago …: 66,4%
Ander …: 33,6%
¿Por qué Tiago Cacao?
UTR 13,54 vs 12,00
(+2,38)
— Ventaja clara
Tiago …
W29-L13
69% WR
vs UTR 12,9
L1
Ander …
W22-L32
41% WR
vs UTR 12,1
W2
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Tiago … | Ander … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,06 | 8,00 | 94,1% |
| Gamdom | 1,16 | 3,87 | 86,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,51 | 2,98 | 66,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Tiago …: -21,9%
Ander …: +21,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Tiago Cacao
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,54 Pro
UTR Ranking
#662
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
78% (9p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Ander Tarrio Ponte
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,00 General
UTR Ranking
#3161
Forma L5
100% (1p)
Forma L10
100% (1p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Tiago Cacao
Record 2025
29W - 13L (69%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
12,9
Últimos 5:
L
W
W
W
L
Ander Tarrio Ponte
Record 2025
22W - 32L (41%)
Racha
2W
UTR Oponentes
12,1
Últimos 5:
W
W
L
L
L
Análisis Momentum
Momentum similar entre ambos jugadores.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -7,5000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 25,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,1667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 51,0204 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 1,0204 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 13,2653 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 3,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 3,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,3849 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0000 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 2,3782 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,6471 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,3673 | |
| utr_advantage | 19,3178 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,5000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
19571
API ID
15215085
Gamdom ID
525783
Torneo
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 19571,
"api_id": 15215085,
"gamdom_id": 525783,
"player1": "Tiago Cacao",
"player2": "Ander Tarrio Ponte",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2025-12-18T09:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.0625,
"p2": 8.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.16,
"p2": 3.87
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.05,
"p2": 8.72
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.664,
"prob_p2": 0.336,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.664,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.54,
"utr_ranking": 662,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 29,
"utr_v4_losses": 13,
"utr_v4_wr": 69.04761904761905,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.88,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.11,
"opponent_name": "Cezar (2001) Cretu"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.99,
"opponent_name": "Diego Dedura-Palomero"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.92,
"opponent_name": "Salvador Monteiro"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 13.46,
"opponent_name": "Tomas Curras Abasolo"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.17,
"opponent_name": "Alastair Gray"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:48.316323+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 77.77777777777779,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 9
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 3161,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 22,
"utr_v4_losses": 32,
"utr_v4_wr": 40.74074074074074,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.14,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.07,
"opponent_name": "Giovanni Ciocca"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.1,
"opponent_name": "Tommaso Pedretti"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.82,
"opponent_name": "Robin Bertrand"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 11.6,
"opponent_name": "Rodrigo Cruz"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.26,
"opponent_name": "Sebastian Fanselow"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:55:20.877834+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 1,
"form_l10_matches": 1
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.54,
"ranking": 662,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 3161,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
"utr_p2": 0.36727163596908824,
"utr_diff": 2.3781910942627498,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 51.02040816326531,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.16666666666666663,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 3,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 1.0204081632653086,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 19.3177609603541,
"utr_available": 0.5,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 3,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.384878786051337,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 25.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 13.265306122448976,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -7.5,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}