Fred Gil vs Pavel Lagutin
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08 | Hard |
17 Dic 2025, 19:40
Sofascore
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Pavel Lagutin
Fred …: 29,1% Pavel …: 70,9%
¿Por qué Pavel Lagutin?
UTR 12,00 vs 13,44 (-1,50) — Ligera ventaja
Fred …
W58-L32
64% WR
vs UTR 11,5
L1
Pavel …
W57-L16
78% WR
vs UTR 12,3
W1
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Fred … Pavel … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 7,00 1,08 14,3%
Gamdom 6,13 1,04 16,3%
IA Fair Odds 3,44 1,41 29,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Fred …: +15,7% Pavel …: -15,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Fred Gil
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #3559
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 0% (6p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Pavel Lagutin
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,44 Pro
UTR Ranking #733
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (5p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Fred Gil
Record 2025 58W - 32L (64%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 11,5
Últimos 5:
L W L L L
Pavel Lagutin
Record 2025 57W - 16L (78%)
Racha 1W
UTR Oponentes 12,3
Últimos 5:
W L W L L
Análisis Momentum
Pavel Lagutin ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 12,3 vs 11,5).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -1,0000
last3_wr_diff -1,0000
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -100,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -75,0000
current_streak_diff -5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 3,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 3,5791
serve_consistency_p2 5,7812
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,5000
utr_p1 0,4706
utr_p2 0,6471
utr_advantage -11,7647
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 19572
API ID 15215062
Gamdom ID 525801
Torneo UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 19572,
    "api_id": 15215062,
    "gamdom_id": 525801,
    "player1": "Fred Gil",
    "player2": "Pavel Lagutin",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-17T15:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 7.0,
      "p2": 1.0833333333333333
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 6.13,
      "p2": 1.04
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 8.0,
      "p2": 1.06
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2906,
    "prob_p2": 0.7094,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7094,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 3559,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 58,
      "utr_v4_losses": 32,
      "utr_v4_wr": 64.44444444444444,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.48,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Raphael Calzi"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Ricardo Ramos"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.58,
          "opponent_name": "Sean HODKIN"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.84,
          "opponent_name": "Marcel Volz"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.26,
          "opponent_name": "Sebastian Fanselow"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:26.478982+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.44,
      "utr_ranking": 733,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 57,
      "utr_v4_losses": 16,
      "utr_v4_wr": 78.08219178082192,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.33,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.29,
          "opponent_name": "Diego Augusto Barreto Sanchez"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.72,
          "opponent_name": "Pedro Rodenas"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.6,
          "opponent_name": "Xavi Palomar"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.63,
          "opponent_name": "Abel Forger"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.5,
          "opponent_name": "Tiago Cacao"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:10.072359+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 3559,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.44,
      "ranking": 733,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.47058823529411764,
    "utr_p2": 0.6470588235294118,
    "utr_diff": -1.5,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -1.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -1.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 3,
    "momentum_diff": -99.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -11.76470588235294,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": -5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.579059829059833,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.781232055235212,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -75.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}