Julio Cesar Porras vs Hugo Maia
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08 | Hard |
18 Dic 2025, 13:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Hugo Maia
Julio …: 46,5% Hugo …: 53,5%
¿Por qué Hugo Maia?
UTR 13,39 vs 12,60 (+0,77) — Niveles similares
Julio …
W33-L19
63% WR
vs UTR 13,1
L1
Hugo …
W34-L27
56% WR
vs UTR 12,5
L4
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (31%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Julio … Hugo … Prob Impl. P1
IA Fair Odds 2,15 1,87 46,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Julio Cesar Porras
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #774
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (8p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Hugo Maia
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #1468
Forma L5 0% (3p)
Forma L10 0% (3p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Julio Cesar Porras
Record 2025 33W - 19L (63%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 13,1
Últimos 5:
L W L L L
Hugo Maia
Record 2025 34W - 27L (56%)
Racha 4L
UTR Oponentes 12,5
Últimos 5:
L L L L W
Análisis Momentum
Julio Cesar Porras ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 13,1 vs 12,5).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -1,2267
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 0,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 4,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 1,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3133
combined_confidence 0,3067
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -36,7200
first_serve_won_diff -51,2000
second_serve_won_diff -30,4000
bp_saved_diff -63,6000
bp_converted_diff -50,0000
aces_per_match_diff -1,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,5000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 51,0204
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 51,0204
weighted_momentum_diff 38,2653
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 140,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 3,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 5,2413
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,7700
utr_p1 0,6494
utr_p2 0,5588
utr_advantage 5,8622
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 19583
API ID 15215067
Gamdom ID -
Torneo UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status cancelled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 19583,
    "api_id": 15215067,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Julio Cesar Porras",
    "player2": "Hugo Maia",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-18T09:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "cancelled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4646,
    "prob_p2": 0.5354,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5354,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.39,
      "utr_ranking": 774,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 33,
      "utr_v4_losses": 19,
      "utr_v4_wr": 63.46153846153846,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.08,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.49,
          "opponent_name": "Harold Huens"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.79,
          "opponent_name": "Svyatoslav Gulin"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.39,
          "opponent_name": "Patrick Schoen"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.16,
          "opponent_name": "Noah Lopez Cherubino"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.96,
          "opponent_name": "Raul Brancaccio"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:01.890100+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.6,
      "utr_ranking": 1468,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 34,
      "utr_v4_losses": 27,
      "utr_v4_wr": 55.73770491803278,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 4,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.48,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.44,
          "opponent_name": "Obrad Markovski"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.0,
          "opponent_name": "JanMagnus Johnson"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Leandro Zgraggen"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.44,
          "opponent_name": "Freddy MURRAY"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.42,
          "opponent_name": "Sasa Markovic"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:40.157265+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.39,
      "ranking": 774,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.6,
      "ranking": 1468,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6494117647058824,
    "utr_p2": 0.5588235294117647,
    "utr_diff": 0.7699999999999996,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 51.02040816326531,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -63.6,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.5,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 51.02040816326531,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 5.862200228397409,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 3,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -50.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 1,
    "serve_quality_diff": -36.72,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.30666666666666664,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -51.2,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.241327879152896,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 4.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -30.4,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 38.265306122448976,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 140,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.2266666666666666,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}