Julio Cesar Porras vs Sam Ryan Ziegann
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08 | Hard |
17 Dic 2025, 15:25
Sofascore
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sam Ryan Ziegann
Julio …: 27,9% Sam …: 72,1%
¿Por qué Sam Ryan Ziegann?
UTR 13,39 vs 12,76 (+0,75) — Niveles similares
Julio …
W33-L19
63% WR
vs UTR 13,1
L1
Sam …
W34-L37
48% WR
vs UTR 12,5
L1
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (31%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Julio … Sam … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,29 3,50 77,8%
Gamdom 1,23 3,23 81,3%
IA Fair Odds 3,58 1,39 27,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Julio …: -45,2% Sam …: +45,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Julio Cesar Porras
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,39 Pro
UTR Ranking #774
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 57% (7p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Sam Ryan Ziegann
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,76 Pro
UTR Ranking #1340
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (5p)
WR Hard 1/2 = 50,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Julio Cesar Porras
Record 2025 33W - 19L (63%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 13,1
Últimos 5:
L W L L L
Sam Ryan Ziegann
Record 2025 34W - 37L (48%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 12,5
Últimos 5:
L W L L L
Análisis Momentum
Julio Cesar Porras ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 13,1 vs 12,5).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -50,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -15,6667
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 0,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 2,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3267
combined_confidence 0,3133
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -68,8500
first_serve_won_diff -71,7000
second_serve_won_diff -50,0000
bp_saved_diff -71,4000
bp_converted_diff -50,0000
aces_per_match_diff -9,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,3000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 51,0204
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -8,9796
weighted_momentum_diff -6,7347
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 3,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 5,2413
serve_consistency_p2 13,5823
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,7500
utr_p1 0,6494
utr_p2 0,5612
utr_advantage 5,7056
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 19584
API ID 15215073
Gamdom ID 525782
Torneo UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 19584,
    "api_id": 15215073,
    "gamdom_id": 525782,
    "player1": "Julio Cesar Porras",
    "player2": "Sam Ryan Ziegann",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-17T11:25:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2857142857142856,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.23,
      "p2": 3.23
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.24,
      "p2": 3.68
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2794,
    "prob_p2": 0.7206,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7206,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.39,
      "utr_ranking": 774,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 33,
      "utr_v4_losses": 19,
      "utr_v4_wr": 63.46153846153846,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 13.08,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.49,
          "opponent_name": "Harold Huens"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.79,
          "opponent_name": "Svyatoslav Gulin"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.39,
          "opponent_name": "Patrick Schoen"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.16,
          "opponent_name": "Noah Lopez Cherubino"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.96,
          "opponent_name": "Raul Brancaccio"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:01.890100+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 57.14285714285714,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 7
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.76,
      "utr_ranking": 1340,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 34,
      "utr_v4_losses": 37,
      "utr_v4_wr": 47.88732394366197,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.54,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.38,
          "opponent_name": "Stefan Storch"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Naufal Siddiq Kamaruzzaman"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.22,
          "opponent_name": "Thanapet Chanta"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.48,
          "opponent_name": "John Echeverria"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.57,
          "opponent_name": "Tiago Torres"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:27.580829+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 2,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.39,
      "ranking": 774,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.76,
      "ranking": 1340,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6494117647058824,
    "utr_p2": 0.5611764705882353,
    "utr_diff": 0.75,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 51.02040816326531,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -71.4,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.30000000000000004,
    "match_load_p1": 3,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -8.979591836734691,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 5.7055914796500575,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": -50.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -50.0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 2,
    "serve_quality_diff": -68.85,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -9.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.31333333333333335,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -71.7,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.241327879152896,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.582338623546711,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -50.0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -6.734693877551024,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.666666666666668,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}