Teresa Franco Dias vs Elizabeth Jurna
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 07 | Hard | Semifinals
14 Dic 2025, 17:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Elizabeth Jurna
Teresa …: 38,8% Elizabeth …: 61,2%
¿Por qué Elizabeth Jurna?
UTR 8,07 vs 9,00 (-0,98) — Niveles similares
Teresa …
W10-L24
29% WR
vs UTR 8,9
L1
Elizabeth …
W17-L37
31% WR
vs UTR 9,4
L2
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (31%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Teresa … Elizabeth … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 6,00 1,11 16,7%
Gamdom 4,85 1,07 20,6%
IA Fair Odds 2,58 1,63 38,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Teresa …: +23,1% Elizabeth …: -23,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Teresa Franco Dias
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 8,07 Pro
UTR Ranking #1511
Forma L5 0% (3p)
Forma L10 0% (3p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Elizabeth Jurna
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 9,00 General
UTR Ranking #3697
Forma L5 0% (4p)
Forma L10 0% (4p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Teresa Franco Dias
Record 2025 10W - 24L (29%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 8,9
Últimos 5:
L W L L L
Elizabeth Jurna
Record 2025 17W - 37L (31%)
Racha 2L
UTR Oponentes 9,4
Últimos 5:
L L W W L
Análisis Momentum
Elizabeth Jurna ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 9,4 vs 8,9).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -14,1067
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 4,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 1,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -1,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3133
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3067
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 0,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,3333
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 2,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff -2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 7,0505
serve_consistency_p2 4,7803
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,9800
utr_p1 0,0024
utr_p2 0,1176
utr_advantage -11,5159
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 19803
API ID 15219477
Gamdom ID 527760
Torneo UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 07
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 19803,
    "api_id": 15219477,
    "gamdom_id": 527760,
    "player1": "Teresa Franco Dias",
    "player2": "Elizabeth Jurna",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 07",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2025-12-14T13:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 6.0,
      "p2": 1.1111111111111112
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.85,
      "p2": 1.07
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 5.85,
      "p2": 1.1
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3876,
    "prob_p2": 0.6124,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6124,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 8.07,
      "utr_ranking": 1511,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 10,
      "utr_v4_losses": 24,
      "utr_v4_wr": 29.411764705882355,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 8.94,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 8.82,
          "opponent_name": "Madalena Matias"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 8.39,
          "opponent_name": "Theodora Degelow"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 8.3,
          "opponent_name": "Carla Tomai"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 8.49,
          "opponent_name": "Miroslava Medvedeva"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.06,
          "opponent_name": "Angelina Voloshchuk"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:46.060929+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 3,
      "form_l10_matches": 3
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 9.0,
      "utr_ranking": 3697,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 17,
      "utr_v4_losses": 37,
      "utr_v4_wr": 31.48148148148148,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.41,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.33,
          "opponent_name": "Daria Yesypchuk"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.56,
          "opponent_name": "Adithya Karunaratne"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.49,
          "opponent_name": "Min Liu"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 8.65,
          "opponent_name": "Mariia Nozdrachova"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.36,
          "opponent_name": "Marta Soriano Santiago"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:11.241700+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 8.07,
      "ranking": 1511,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 9.0,
      "ranking": 3697,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.002352941176470538,
    "utr_p2": 0.11764705882352941,
    "utr_diff": -0.9800000000000004,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 0.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 2,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3133333333333333,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -11.515863689776738,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 1,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.30666666666666664,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.050538711690143,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.780336348809712,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 4.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0.33333333333333215,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -14.106666666666666,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}