Koki Matsuda vs Toshiki Karigyo
UTR PTT Saitama Men 04 | Hard |
18 Dic 2025, 06:00
18 Dic 2025, 06:00
Sofascore
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Koki Matsuda
Koki …: 87,5%
Toshiki …: 12,5%
¿Por qué Koki Matsuda?
UTR 13,37 vs 12,50
(+0,99)
— Niveles similares
Koki …
W66-L24
73% WR
vs UTR 12,5
L1
Toshiki …
W32-L23
58% WR
vs UTR 11,9
L1
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (35%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Koki … | Toshiki … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,08 | 7,00 | 92,3% |
| Gamdom | 1,05 | 5,78 | 95,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,14 | 7,99 | 87,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Koki …: +0,9%
Toshiki …: -0,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Koki Matsuda
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,37 Pro
UTR Ranking
#795
Forma L5
75% (4p)
Forma L10
75% (4p)
WR Hard
5/9 = 55,6%
Toshiki Karigyo
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1540
Forma L5
0% (2p)
Forma L10
0% (2p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Koki Matsuda
Record 2025
66W - 24L (73%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
12,5
Últimos 5:
L
W
L
L
W
Toshiki Karigyo
Record 2025
32W - 23L (58%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
11,9
Últimos 5:
L
W
W
L
W
Análisis Momentum
Koki Matsuda ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 12,5 vs 11,9).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 2,7481 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 8,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 57,7778 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 8,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2500 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4067 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3533 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 70,0100 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 71,3000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 58,7000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 53,5000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 37,7000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 8,3750 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,5000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,5000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -50,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -25,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 36,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0000 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1250 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,9900 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,6341 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5176 | |
| utr_advantage | 7,6774 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
19861
API ID
15213333
Gamdom ID
523995
Torneo
UTR PTT Saitama Men 04
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 19861,
"api_id": 15213333,
"gamdom_id": 523995,
"player1": "Koki Matsuda",
"player2": "Toshiki Karigyo",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Saitama Men 04",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2025-12-18T02:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.0833333333333333,
"p2": 7.0
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.05,
"p2": 5.78
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.09,
"p2": 6.7
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.8749,
"prob_p2": 0.1251,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.8749,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.37,
"utr_ranking": 795,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 66,
"utr_v4_losses": 24,
"utr_v4_wr": 73.33333333333333,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.51,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.51,
"opponent_name": "Yusuke Kusuhara"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.08,
"opponent_name": "Ren Nakamura"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.64,
"opponent_name": "Yusuke Takahashi"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 14.02,
"opponent_name": "Duje AJDUKOVIC"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 14.26,
"opponent_name": "Abdullah Shelbayh"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:12.468225+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 9,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 75.0,
"form_l10_wr": 75.0,
"form_l5_matches": 4,
"form_l10_matches": 4
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.5,
"utr_ranking": 1540,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 32,
"utr_v4_losses": 23,
"utr_v4_wr": 58.18181818181818,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.92,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.78,
"opponent_name": "Makoto Ochi"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Seonyong Han"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.11,
"opponent_name": "Bang Shuo Yin"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.32,
"opponent_name": "Dong Ju Kim"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Genki Fukushima"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:51.856470+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 0.0,
"form_l10_wr": 0.0,
"form_l5_matches": 2,
"form_l10_matches": 2
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.37,
"ranking": 795,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.5,
"ranking": 1540,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.6341176470588236,
"utr_p2": 0.5176470588235295,
"utr_diff": 0.9900000000000002,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 0.0,
"momentum_p2": 50.0,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 53.5,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.5,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.5,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -50.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.4066666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 7.677394338891045,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.75,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 62.5,
"bp_converted_diff": 37.7,
"p1_surface_matches": 8,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 70.00999999999999,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 8.375,
"combined_confidence": 0.35333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 71.3,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.0,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 57.77777777777778,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 58.7,
"surface_matches_ratio": 8.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -25.0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 36,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.125,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 2.7481481481481485,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}