Ellen Katzer vs Karla Popovic
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 07 | Hard | Final
15 Dic 2025, 00:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Karla Popovic
Ellen …: 39,5% Karla …: 60,6%
¿Por qué Karla Popovic?
UTR 9,00 vs 9,67 (-1,52) — Ligera ventaja
Ellen …
W1-L2
33% WR
vs UTR 8,0
L1
Karla …
W10-L10
50% WR
vs UTR 9,2
L6
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ellen … Karla … Prob Impl. P1
Gamdom 2,30 1,42 43,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,53 1,65 39,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ellen Katzer
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 9,00 General
UTR Ranking #2860
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (5p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Karla Popovic
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 9,67 Pro
UTR Ranking #1208
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (5p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Ellen Katzer
Record 2025 1W - 2L (33%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 8,0
Últimos 5:
L W L
Karla Popovic
Record 2025 10W - 10L (50%)
Racha 6L
UTR Oponentes 9,2
Últimos 5:
L L L L L
Análisis Momentum
Karla Popovic ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 9,2 vs 8,0).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 42,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -13,5000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 3,3786
serve_consistency_p2 5,1580
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,5200
utr_p1 0,0000
utr_p2 0,1788
utr_advantage -17,3516
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 19960
API ID 15221574
Gamdom ID 529195
Torneo UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 07
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 19960,
    "api_id": 15221574,
    "gamdom_id": 529195,
    "player1": "Ellen Katzer",
    "player2": "Karla Popovic",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 07",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2025-12-14T20:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.42
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.5,
      "p2": 1.5
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3945,
    "prob_p2": 0.6055,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6055,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 9.0,
      "utr_ranking": 2860,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 1,
      "utr_v4_losses": 2,
      "utr_v4_wr": 33.33333333333333,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 8.0,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Barbora Slav\u00edkov\u00e1"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 7.0,
          "opponent_name": "Nela Bl\u00e1hov\u00e1"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 8.0,
          "opponent_name": "Lumi Cho Kusano"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:11.649418+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 9.67,
      "utr_ranking": 1208,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 10,
      "utr_v4_losses": 10,
      "utr_v4_wr": 50.0,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 6,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.23,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Eva Busaad"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.33,
          "opponent_name": "Daria Yesypchuk"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.68,
          "opponent_name": "Mirjana Jovanovic"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Vera Zvonareva"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Nina KRUIJER"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:05.725025+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 9.0,
      "ranking": 2860,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 9.67,
      "ranking": 1208,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.0,
    "utr_p2": 0.17882352941176466,
    "utr_diff": -1.5199999999999996,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -18.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -17.351598173515978,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.378613523993771,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.157958479534051,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -13.5,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}