Ellen Katzer vs Karla Popovic
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 07 | Hard | Final
15 Dic 2025, 00:10
15 Dic 2025, 00:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Karla Popovic
Ellen …: 39,5%
Karla …: 60,6%
¿Por qué Karla Popovic?
UTR 9,00 vs 9,67
(-1,52)
— Ligera ventaja
Ellen …
W1-L2
33% WR
vs UTR 8,0
L1
Karla …
W10-L10
50% WR
vs UTR 9,2
L6
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Ellen … | Karla … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamdom | 2,30 | 1,42 | 43,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,53 | 1,65 | 39,5% |
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ellen Katzer
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
9,00 General
UTR Ranking
#2860
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (5p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Karla Popovic
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
9,67 Pro
UTR Ranking
#1208
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (5p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Ellen Katzer
Record 2025
1W - 2L (33%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
8,0
Últimos 5:
L
W
L
Karla Popovic
Record 2025
10W - 10L (50%)
Racha
6L
UTR Oponentes
9,2
Últimos 5:
L
L
L
L
L
Análisis Momentum
Karla Popovic ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 9,2 vs 8,0).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 42,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -18,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -13,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 5,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,3786 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 5,1580 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,5200 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,1788 | |
| utr_advantage | -17,3516 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
19960
API ID
15221574
Gamdom ID
529195
Torneo
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 07
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 19960,
"api_id": 15221574,
"gamdom_id": 529195,
"player1": "Ellen Katzer",
"player2": "Karla Popovic",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 07",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Final",
"date": "2025-12-14T20:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": null,
"p2": null
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.42
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.5,
"p2": 1.5
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3945,
"prob_p2": 0.6055,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6055,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 9.0,
"utr_ranking": 2860,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 1,
"utr_v4_losses": 2,
"utr_v4_wr": 33.33333333333333,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 8.0,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 9.0,
"opponent_name": "Barbora Slav\u00edkov\u00e1"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 7.0,
"opponent_name": "Nela Bl\u00e1hov\u00e1"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 8.0,
"opponent_name": "Lumi Cho Kusano"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:11.649418+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 9.67,
"utr_ranking": 1208,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 10,
"utr_v4_losses": 10,
"utr_v4_wr": 50.0,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 6,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.23,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 9.0,
"opponent_name": "Eva Busaad"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 10.33,
"opponent_name": "Daria Yesypchuk"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 9.68,
"opponent_name": "Mirjana Jovanovic"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 10.0,
"opponent_name": "Vera Zvonareva"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 10.0,
"opponent_name": "Nina KRUIJER"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:05.725025+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 5
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 9.0,
"ranking": 2860,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 9.67,
"ranking": 1208,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.0,
"utr_p2": 0.17882352941176466,
"utr_diff": -1.5199999999999996,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 60.00000000000001,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 5,
"match_load_p2": 5,
"momentum_diff": -18.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -17.351598173515978,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.378613523993771,
"serve_consistency_p2": 5.157958479534051,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -13.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}