Carla Tomai vs Francesca Franchi
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 08 | Clay |
16 Dic 2025, 20:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Francesca Franchi
Carla …: 38,7% Francesca …: 61,3%
¿Por qué Francesca Franchi?
UTR 8,30 vs 9,00 (-3,60) — Ventaja clara
Carla …
W3-L15
17% WR
vs UTR 9,8
L1
Francesca …
W17-L15
53% WR
vs UTR 8,9
W4
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Carla … Francesca … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 6,50 1,10 15,4%
Gamdom 5,88 1,04 17,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,58 1,63 38,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Carla …: +24,2% Francesca …: -24,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Carla Tomai
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 8,30 Pro
UTR Ranking #1498
Forma L5 50% (0p)
Forma L10 50% (0p)
WR Clay 0/0 = 0,0%
Francesca Franchi
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 9,00 Pro
UTR Ranking #1309
Forma L5 50% (0p)
Forma L10 50% (0p)
WR Clay 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Carla Tomai
Record 2025 3W - 15L (17%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 9,8
Últimos 5:
L W W L L
Francesca Franchi
Record 2025 17W - 15L (53%)
Racha 4W
UTR Oponentes 8,9
Últimos 5:
W W W W L
Análisis Momentum
Francesca Franchi en racha: 4 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 0,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 30,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 30,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 10,0000
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -3,5961
utr_p1 0,0353
utr_p2 0,4584
utr_advantage -35,6114
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,5000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 19988
API ID 15222931
Gamdom ID 529851
Torneo UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 08
Superficie Clay
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 19988,
    "api_id": 15222931,
    "gamdom_id": 529851,
    "player1": "Carla Tomai",
    "player2": "Francesca Franchi",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Women +H 08",
    "surface": "clay",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-16T16:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 6.5,
      "p2": 1.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 5.88,
      "p2": 1.04
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 6.43,
      "p2": 1.09
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3869,
    "prob_p2": 0.6131,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6131,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 8.3,
      "utr_ranking": 1498,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 3,
      "utr_v4_losses": 15,
      "utr_v4_wr": 16.666666666666664,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.78,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Khrystyna Vozniak"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 8.0,
          "opponent_name": "Mariana Cunha"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 8.02,
          "opponent_name": "Teresa Franco Dias"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.65,
          "opponent_name": "Indianna Spink"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Jinte Eve De boer"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:55:43.075845+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50,
      "form_l10_wr": 50,
      "form_l5_matches": 0,
      "form_l10_matches": 0
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 9.0,
      "utr_ranking": 1309,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 17,
      "utr_v4_losses": 15,
      "utr_v4_wr": 53.125,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 4,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 8.92,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Gwendolyn Fedel"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.91,
          "opponent_name": "Cristiana Nicoleta Todoni"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.83,
          "opponent_name": "Alexandra Irina Anghel"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 8.0,
          "opponent_name": "Madison Frahn"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.75,
          "opponent_name": "Mara Gae"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:24.568755+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50,
      "form_l10_wr": 50,
      "form_l5_matches": 0,
      "form_l10_matches": 0
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 8.3,
      "ranking": 1498,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 9.0,
      "ranking": 1309,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.035294117647058906,
    "utr_p2": 0.4583591743325537,
    "utr_diff": -3.5960529818267055,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -35.61144333561207,
    "utr_available": 0.5,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.0,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 30,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}