Stefan Kostic vs Jera Staley
UTR PTT Melbourne Men 02 | Hard |
16 Dic 2025, 05:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jera Staley
Stefan …: 41,8% Jera …: 58,2%
¿Por qué Jera Staley?
UTR 11,00 vs 12,00 (+1,00) — Ligera ventaja
Stefan …
W10-L17
37% WR
vs UTR 11,7
L1
Jera …
W28-L33
46% WR
vs UTR 11,6
L7
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Stefan … Jera … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,25 1,57 44,4%
Gamdom 2,74 1,32 36,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,39 1,72 41,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Stefan …: +0,7% Jera …: -0,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stefan Kostic
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 11,00 General
UTR Ranking #6521
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 25% (8p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Jera Staley
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #3782
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 67% (6p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Stefan Kostic
Record 2025 10W - 17L (37%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 11,7
Últimos 5:
L W W L W
Jera Staley
Record 2025 28W - 33L (46%)
Racha 7L
UTR Oponentes 11,6
Últimos 5:
L L L L L
Análisis Momentum
Momentum similar entre ambos jugadores.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -1,0000
momentum_p1 8,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff -90,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -67,5000
current_streak_diff -7,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 2,0000
match_load_p1 8,0000
match_load_p2 6,0000
match_load_diff 2,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 9,4661
serve_consistency_p2 6,0313
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 1,0000
utr_p1 0,4706
utr_p2 0,3529
utr_advantage 8,6957
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20063
API ID 15223987
Gamdom ID 529895
Torneo UTR PTT Melbourne Men 02
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20063,
    "api_id": 15223987,
    "gamdom_id": 529895,
    "player1": "Stefan Kostic",
    "player2": "Jera Staley",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Melbourne Men 02",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-16T01:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.25,
      "p2": 1.5714285714285714
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.74,
      "p2": 1.32
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.51,
      "p2": 1.47
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4182,
    "prob_p2": 0.5818,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5818,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 11.0,
      "utr_ranking": 6521,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 10,
      "utr_v4_losses": 17,
      "utr_v4_wr": 37.03703703703704,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.74,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.59,
          "opponent_name": "Sam Young-Mathers"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Andrej Paunovic"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.96,
          "opponent_name": "Nikola Lulic"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.22,
          "opponent_name": "Anton Arzhankin"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 7.0,
          "opponent_name": "Yanko Yankov"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:39.530852+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 25.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 3782,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 28,
      "utr_v4_losses": 33,
      "utr_v4_wr": 45.90163934426229,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 7,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.58,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.52,
          "opponent_name": "Jack Bruce-Smith"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.49,
          "opponent_name": "Ashton McLeod"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Asher Brownrigg"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Oliver Wilcox"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Luca CONNAUGHTON"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:52.148105+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 6
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.0,
      "ranking": 6521,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 3782,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.47058823529411764,
    "utr_p2": 0.35294117647058826,
    "utr_diff": 1.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 8.0,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -1.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 8,
    "match_load_p2": 6,
    "momentum_diff": -89.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 8.695652173913043,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 2,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": -7,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.466124189786571,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.031320299600022,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -67.5,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}