Stefan Kostic vs Jera Staley
UTR PTT Melbourne Men 02 | Hard |
16 Dic 2025, 05:35
16 Dic 2025, 05:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jera Staley
Stefan …: 41,8%
Jera …: 58,2%
¿Por qué Jera Staley?
UTR 11,00 vs 12,00
(+1,00)
— Ligera ventaja
Stefan …
W10-L17
37% WR
vs UTR 11,7
L1
Jera …
W28-L33
46% WR
vs UTR 11,6
L7
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Stefan … | Jera … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,25 | 1,57 | 44,4% |
| Gamdom | 2,74 | 1,32 | 36,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,39 | 1,72 | 41,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Stefan …: +0,7%
Jera …: -0,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stefan Kostic
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
11,00 General
UTR Ranking
#6521
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
25% (8p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Jera Staley
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,00 General
UTR Ranking
#3782
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
67% (6p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Stefan Kostic
Record 2025
10W - 17L (37%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
11,7
Últimos 5:
L
W
W
L
W
Jera Staley
Record 2025
28W - 33L (46%)
Racha
7L
UTR Oponentes
11,6
Últimos 5:
L
L
L
L
L
Análisis Momentum
Momentum similar entre ambos jugadores.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -1,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -90,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -67,5000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -7,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 8,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 6,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 2,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,4661 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,0313 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4706 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,3529 | |
| utr_advantage | 8,6957 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
20063
API ID
15223987
Gamdom ID
529895
Torneo
UTR PTT Melbourne Men 02
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 20063,
"api_id": 15223987,
"gamdom_id": 529895,
"player1": "Stefan Kostic",
"player2": "Jera Staley",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Melbourne Men 02",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2025-12-16T01:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.25,
"p2": 1.5714285714285714
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.74,
"p2": 1.32
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.51,
"p2": 1.47
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4182,
"prob_p2": 0.5818,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5818,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 11.0,
"utr_ranking": 6521,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 10,
"utr_v4_losses": 17,
"utr_v4_wr": 37.03703703703704,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.74,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 11.59,
"opponent_name": "Sam Young-Mathers"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 9.0,
"opponent_name": "Andrej Paunovic"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.96,
"opponent_name": "Nikola Lulic"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.22,
"opponent_name": "Anton Arzhankin"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 7.0,
"opponent_name": "Yanko Yankov"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:39.530852+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 25.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 8
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 3782,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 28,
"utr_v4_losses": 33,
"utr_v4_wr": 45.90163934426229,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 7,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.58,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.52,
"opponent_name": "Jack Bruce-Smith"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.49,
"opponent_name": "Ashton McLeod"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Asher Brownrigg"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Oliver Wilcox"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Luca CONNAUGHTON"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:52.148105+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 66.66666666666666,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 6
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.0,
"ranking": 6521,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 3782,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.47058823529411764,
"utr_p2": 0.35294117647058826,
"utr_diff": 1.0,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 8.0,
"momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -1.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 8,
"match_load_p2": 6,
"momentum_diff": -89.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": 8.695652173913043,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 2,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": -7,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.466124189786571,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.031320299600022,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -67.5,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 2,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}