Ryotaro Matsumura vs Koki Matsuda
UTR PTT Saitama Men 04 | Hard | Semifinals
20 Dic 2025, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Koki Matsuda
Ryotaro …: 41,8% Koki …: 58,2%
¿Por qué Koki Matsuda?
UTR 13,13 vs 13,37 (-0,42) — Niveles similares
Ryotaro …
W72-L16
82% WR
vs UTR 12,0
W6
Koki …
W66-L24
73% WR
vs UTR 12,5
L1
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (36%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ryotaro … Koki … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,40 36,4%
Gamdom 2,60 1,34 38,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,39 1,72 41,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Ryotaro …: +8,1% Koki …: -8,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ryotaro Matsumura
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,13 Pro
UTR Ranking #986
Forma L5 100% (4p)
Forma L10 100% (4p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Koki Matsuda
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,37 Pro
UTR Ranking #795
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 80% (5p)
WR Hard 5/9 = 55,6%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Ryotaro Matsumura
Record 2025 72W - 16L (82%)
Racha 6W
UTR Oponentes 12,0
Últimos 5:
W W W W W
Koki Matsuda
Record 2025 66W - 24L (73%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 12,5
Últimos 5:
L W L L W
Análisis Momentum
Ryotaro Matsumura en racha: 6 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -55,5556
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -1,4462
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,0171
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 9,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,4200
combined_confidence 0,3600
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -67,8367
first_serve_won_diff -71,1222
second_serve_won_diff -55,7333
bp_saved_diff -53,1111
bp_converted_diff -36,2889
aces_per_match_diff -7,7778
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 100,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff 2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 1,5000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 8,0976
serve_consistency_p2 5,4327
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0556
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4200
utr_p1 0,5847
utr_p2 0,6341
utr_advantage -3,1866
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20171
API ID 15250233
Gamdom ID 540451
Torneo UTR PTT Saitama Men 04
Superficie Hard
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20171,
    "api_id": 15250233,
    "gamdom_id": 540451,
    "player1": "Ryotaro Matsumura",
    "player2": "Koki Matsuda",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Saitama Men 04",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2025-12-20T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.6,
      "p2": 1.34
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.47,
      "p2": 1.49
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4182,
    "prob_p2": 0.5818,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5818,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.13,
      "utr_ranking": 986,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 72,
      "utr_v4_losses": 16,
      "utr_v4_wr": 81.81818181818183,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 6,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.95,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "yuga tashiro"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Kotaro Mochizuki"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "takashi yoshida"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Jacob Kailiang Shen"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Tokitaka Ito"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:25.548870+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.37,
      "utr_ranking": 795,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 66,
      "utr_v4_losses": 24,
      "utr_v4_wr": 73.33333333333333,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.51,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.51,
          "opponent_name": "Yusuke Kusuhara"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.08,
          "opponent_name": "Ren Nakamura"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.64,
          "opponent_name": "Yusuke Takahashi"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 14.02,
          "opponent_name": "Duje AJDUKOVIC"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 14.26,
          "opponent_name": "Abdullah Shelbayh"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:12.468225+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.13,
      "ranking": 986,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.37,
      "ranking": 795,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5847058823529413,
    "utr_p2": 0.6341176470588236,
    "utr_diff": -0.41999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -53.111111111111114,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": 2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.42,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": -3.1866464339908944,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -55.55555555555556,
    "bp_converted_diff": -36.28888888888889,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 9,
    "serve_quality_diff": -67.83666666666666,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -7.777777777777778,
    "combined_confidence": 0.36,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -71.12222222222222,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.097602757332321,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 5.432703972928408,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.01709401709402,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -55.733333333333334,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 1.5,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.05555555555555558,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.4461538461538461,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}