Jaroslav Pospisil vs Sebastian Chodura
UTR PTT Olomouc Men 08 | Carpet | Semifinals
20 Dic 2025, 11:30
20 Dic 2025, 11:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jaroslav Pospisil
Jaroslav …: 61,2%
Sebastian …: 38,8%
¿Por qué Jaroslav Pospisil?
UTR 12,00 vs 12,00
(-0,63)
— Niveles similares
Jaroslav …
W3-L3
50% WR
vs UTR 12,3
L1
Sebastian …
W20-L28
42% WR
vs UTR 11,5
L2
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jaroslav … | Sebastian … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,13 | 5,50 | 88,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,08 | 5,00 | 92,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,63 | 2,58 | 61,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jaroslav …: -21,8%
Sebastian …: +21,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jaroslav Pospisil
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,00 General
UTR Ranking
#1829
Forma L5
50% (4p)
Forma L10
50% (4p)
WR Carpet
0/0 = 0,0%
Sebastian Chodura
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
12,00 General
UTR Ranking
#3169
Forma L5
50% (4p)
Forma L10
50% (4p)
WR Carpet
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Jaroslav Pospisil
Record 2025
3W - 3L (50%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
12,3
Últimos 5:
L
W
L
W
W
Sebastian Chodura
Record 2025
20W - 28L (42%)
Racha
2L
UTR Oponentes
11,5
Últimos 5:
L
L
W
L
W
Análisis Momentum
Jaroslav Pospisil ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 12,3 vs 11,5).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -15,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 48,9796 | |
| momentum_p2 | 71,4286 | |
| momentum_diff | -22,4490 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -16,8367 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,8349 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,9680 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,6270 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4272 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5009 | |
| utr_advantage | -5,2492 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,5000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
20198
API ID
15251050
Gamdom ID
541166
Torneo
UTR PTT Olomouc Men 08
Superficie
Carpet
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 20198,
"api_id": 15251050,
"gamdom_id": 541166,
"player1": "Jaroslav Pospisil",
"player2": "Sebastian Chodura",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Olomouc Men 08",
"surface": "carpet",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2025-12-20T07:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.125,
"p2": 5.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.08,
"p2": 5.0
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.12,
"p2": 5.32
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.6124,
"prob_p2": 0.3876,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.6124,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 1829,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 3,
"utr_v4_losses": 3,
"utr_v4_wr": 50.0,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.34,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Adam Jurajda"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.8,
"opponent_name": "Denis Petak"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 13.21,
"opponent_name": "Petr Michnev"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Heorhii Shylov"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "David Knesl"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:50.507737+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 50.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 4,
"form_l10_matches": 4
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 3169,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 20,
"utr_v4_losses": 28,
"utr_v4_wr": 41.66666666666667,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 2,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.46,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.22,
"opponent_name": "Jakub Jedrzejczak"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Nicolas Moser"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Brad Sy-A-Foek"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Uladzislau Tarasevich"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Adrian Vorhemus"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:31.362282+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 50.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 4,
"form_l10_matches": 4
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 1829,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 3169,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.42717542869246555,
"utr_p2": 0.5009385180781216,
"utr_diff": -0.6269862597780769,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 48.9795918367347,
"momentum_p2": 71.42857142857143,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 4,
"momentum_diff": -22.448979591836732,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -5.249169787553506,
"utr_available": 0.5,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.83487053508658,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.967959233757183,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -16.836734693877546,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}