Jaroslav Pospisil vs Sebastian Chodura
UTR PTT Olomouc Men 08 | Carpet | Semifinals
20 Dic 2025, 11:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jaroslav Pospisil
Jaroslav …: 61,2% Sebastian …: 38,8%
¿Por qué Jaroslav Pospisil?
UTR 12,00 vs 12,00 (-0,63) — Niveles similares
Jaroslav …
W3-L3
50% WR
vs UTR 12,3
L1
Sebastian …
W20-L28
42% WR
vs UTR 11,5
L2
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jaroslav … Sebastian … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,13 5,50 88,9%
Gamdom 1,08 5,00 92,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,63 2,58 61,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Jaroslav …: -21,8% Sebastian …: +21,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jaroslav Pospisil
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #1829
Forma L5 50% (4p)
Forma L10 50% (4p)
WR Carpet 0/0 = 0,0%
Sebastian Chodura
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #3169
Forma L5 50% (4p)
Forma L10 50% (4p)
WR Carpet 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Jaroslav Pospisil
Record 2025 3W - 3L (50%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 12,3
Últimos 5:
L W L W W
Sebastian Chodura
Record 2025 20W - 28L (42%)
Racha 2L
UTR Oponentes 11,5
Últimos 5:
L L W L W
Análisis Momentum
Jaroslav Pospisil ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 12,3 vs 11,5).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -15,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 0,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 48,9796
momentum_p2 71,4286
momentum_diff -22,4490
weighted_momentum_diff -16,8367
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 1,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 7,8349
serve_consistency_p2 6,9680
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,6270
utr_p1 0,4272
utr_p2 0,5009
utr_advantage -5,2492
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,5000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20198
API ID 15251050
Gamdom ID 541166
Torneo UTR PTT Olomouc Men 08
Superficie Carpet
Ronda Semifinals
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20198,
    "api_id": 15251050,
    "gamdom_id": 541166,
    "player1": "Jaroslav Pospisil",
    "player2": "Sebastian Chodura",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Olomouc Men 08",
    "surface": "carpet",
    "round": "Semifinals",
    "date": "2025-12-20T07:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.125,
      "p2": 5.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.08,
      "p2": 5.0
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.12,
      "p2": 5.32
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6124,
    "prob_p2": 0.3876,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6124,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 1829,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 3,
      "utr_v4_losses": 3,
      "utr_v4_wr": 50.0,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.34,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Adam Jurajda"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.8,
          "opponent_name": "Denis Petak"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.21,
          "opponent_name": "Petr Michnev"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Heorhii Shylov"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "David Knesl"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:50.507737+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 3169,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 20,
      "utr_v4_losses": 28,
      "utr_v4_wr": 41.66666666666667,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.46,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.22,
          "opponent_name": "Jakub Jedrzejczak"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Nicolas Moser"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Brad Sy-A-Foek"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Uladzislau Tarasevich"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Adrian Vorhemus"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:31.362282+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 1829,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 3169,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.42717542869246555,
    "utr_p2": 0.5009385180781216,
    "utr_diff": -0.6269862597780769,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 48.9795918367347,
    "momentum_p2": 71.42857142857143,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -22.448979591836732,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -5.249169787553506,
    "utr_available": 0.5,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.83487053508658,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.967959233757183,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -16.836734693877546,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}