Niels Hoffmann vs Maciej Rajski
UTR PTT Newport Beach Men 18 | Hard | Semifinals
21 Dic 2025, 02:00
21 Dic 2025, 02:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maciej Rajski
Niels …: 44,1%
Maciej …: 55,9%
¿Por qué Maciej Rajski?
UTR 13,00 vs 13,36
(-1,77)
— Ligera ventaja
Niels …
W48-L25
66% WR
vs UTR 12,0
L1
Maciej …
W81-L17
83% WR
vs UTR 12,2
W1
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Niels … | Maciej … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,40 | 1,30 | 29,4% |
| Gamdom | 3,53 | 1,20 | 28,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,27 | 1,79 | 44,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Niels …: +16,5%
Maciej …: -16,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Niels Hoffmann
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,00 General
UTR Ranking
#1387
Forma L5
100% (4p)
Forma L10
100% (4p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Maciej Rajski
Ranking
#-
UTR Rating
13,36 Pro
UTR Ranking
#797
Forma L5
100% (5p)
Forma L10
80% (10p)
WR Hard
0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Niels Hoffmann
Record 2025
48W - 25L (66%)
Racha
1L
UTR Oponentes
12,0
Últimos 5:
L
W
W
W
L
Maciej Rajski
Record 2025
81W - 17L (83%)
Racha
1W
UTR Oponentes
12,2
Últimos 5:
W
L
W
W
L
Análisis Momentum
Maciej Rajski ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 12,2 vs 12,0).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,0000 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 0,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 0,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,0000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 0,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 0,0000 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,0000 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 0,0000 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,0000 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 100,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 4,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 10,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -6,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,1418 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,4266 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -1,7655 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4358 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,6435 | |
| utr_advantage | -14,0262 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,5000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
20249
API ID
15253336
Gamdom ID
542065
Torneo
UTR PTT Newport Beach Men 18
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Semifinals
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 20249,
"api_id": 15253336,
"gamdom_id": 542065,
"player1": "Niels Hoffmann",
"player2": "Maciej Rajski",
"tournament": "UTR PTT Newport Beach Men 18",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Semifinals",
"date": "2025-12-20T22:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.4,
"p2": 1.3
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 3.53,
"p2": 1.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 10.0,
"p2": 1.06
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4411,
"prob_p2": 0.5589,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5589,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.0,
"utr_ranking": 1387,
"utr_division": "General",
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_wins": 48,
"utr_v4_losses": 25,
"utr_v4_wr": 65.75342465753424,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.99,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Matteo Huarte"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.08,
"opponent_name": "Idriss Haddouch"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Jp Day"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Ford McCollum"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Gray Kelley"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:59.988089+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 100.0,
"form_l5_matches": 4,
"form_l10_matches": 4
},
"p2": {
"ranking": null,
"utr_singles": 13.36,
"utr_ranking": 797,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_wins": 81,
"utr_v4_losses": 17,
"utr_v4_wr": 82.6530612244898,
"utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
"utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
"utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.19,
"utr_v4_recent": [
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Kosuke Nakanishi"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.0,
"opponent_name": "Matteo Huarte"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 12.38,
"opponent_name": "Carson Baker"
},
{
"win": true,
"opponent_utr": 11.0,
"opponent_name": "Luca Ostovany"
},
{
"win": false,
"opponent_utr": 12.98,
"opponent_name": "Iiro Vasa"
}
],
"utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:29.466451+00:00",
"utr_v4_available": true,
"wr_surface": 0,
"wr_surface_wins": 0,
"wr_surface_total": 0,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 100.0,
"form_l10_wr": 80.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 13.0,
"ranking": 1387,
"division": "General",
"is_pro": false
},
"p2": {
"score": 13.36,
"ranking": 797,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.43582269505475657,
"utr_p2": 0.6435294117647059,
"utr_diff": -1.7655070920345697,
"rank_ratio": 1.0,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 99.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
"points_diff": 0,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 4,
"match_load_p2": 10,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.3,
"p2_confidence": 0.3,
"surface_wr_p1": 0,
"surface_wr_p2": 0,
"utr_advantage": -14.02615813147877,
"utr_available": 0.5,
"best_rank_diff": 0,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
"rank_advantage": 0,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": -6,
"surface_wr_diff": 0,
"bp_converted_diff": 0,
"p1_surface_matches": 0,
"p2_surface_matches": 0,
"serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0,
"combined_confidence": 0.3,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.141784069126293,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.426618836590995,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 0,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 1,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}