Ewan Ogura vs Toshiki Karigyo
UTR PTT Saitama Men 04 | Hard | Final
21 Dic 2025, 08:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Toshiki Karigyo
Ewan …: 47,0% Toshiki …: 53,0%
¿Por qué Toshiki Karigyo?
UTR 11,00 vs 12,50 — Niveles similares
Ewan …
Sin datos
Toshiki …
W32-L23
58% WR
vs UTR 11,9
L1
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ewan … Toshiki … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,75 1,25 26,7%
Gamdom 3,33 1,23 30,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,13 1,89 47,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Ewan …: +22,0% Toshiki …: -22,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ewan Ogura
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 11,00 General
UTR Ranking #4990
Forma L5 25% (4p)
Forma L10 25% (4p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Toshiki Karigyo
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,50 Pro
UTR Ranking #1540
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (5p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Ewan Ogura
Sin datos UTR v4
Toshiki Karigyo
Record 2025 32W - 23L (58%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 11,9
Últimos 5:
L W W L W
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,1500
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 40,8163
momentum_p2 70,0000
momentum_diff -29,1837
weighted_momentum_diff -21,8878
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 4,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 11,5622
serve_consistency_p2 4,9199
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,5176
utr_p2 0,5176
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20270
API ID 15253717
Gamdom ID 542429
Torneo UTR PTT Saitama Men 04
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20270,
    "api_id": 15253717,
    "gamdom_id": 542429,
    "player1": "Ewan Ogura",
    "player2": "Toshiki Karigyo",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Saitama Men 04",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2025-12-21T04:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.75,
      "p2": 1.25
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.33,
      "p2": 1.23
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.87,
      "p2": 1.22
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4696,
    "prob_p2": 0.5304,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5304,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 11.0,
      "utr_ranking": 4990,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 25.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 25.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.5,
      "utr_ranking": 1540,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 32,
      "utr_v4_losses": 23,
      "utr_v4_wr": 58.18181818181818,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.92,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.78,
          "opponent_name": "Makoto Ochi"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Seonyong Han"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.11,
          "opponent_name": "Bang Shuo Yin"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.32,
          "opponent_name": "Dong Ju Kim"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Genki Fukushima"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:51.856470+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 5
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.0,
      "ranking": 4990,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.5,
      "ranking": 1540,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5176470588235295,
    "utr_p2": 0.5176470588235295,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 40.816326530612244,
    "momentum_p2": 70.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.15000000000000002,
    "match_load_p1": 4,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -29.183673469387756,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.562186641742347,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.9198747708271515,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -21.887755102040813,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}