Pavel Lagutin vs Oscar Brown
UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08 | Hard | Final
21 Dic 2025, 23:55
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Pavel Lagutin
Pavel …: 62,6% Oscar …: 37,4%
¿Por qué Pavel Lagutin?
UTR 13,44 vs 12,90 (+1,95) — Ligera ventaja
Pavel …
W57-L16
78% WR
vs UTR 12,3
W1
Oscar …
W17-L9
65% WR
vs UTR 12,1
W4
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Pavel … Oscar … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,20 4,33 83,3%
Gamdom 1,08 5,10 92,6%
IA Fair Odds 1,60 2,67 62,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Pavel …: -15,7% Oscar …: +15,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Pavel Lagutin
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,44 Pro
UTR Ranking #733
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 78% (9p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Oscar Brown
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #1196
Forma L5 75% (4p)
Forma L10 75% (4p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Pavel Lagutin
Record 2025 57W - 16L (78%)
Racha 1W
UTR Oponentes 12,3
Últimos 5:
W L W L L
Oscar Brown
Record 2025 17W - 9L (65%)
Racha 4W
UTR Oponentes 12,1
Últimos 5:
W W W W L
Análisis Momentum
Oscar Brown en racha: 4 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,1500
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 68,0000
momentum_p2 79,5918
momentum_diff -11,5918
weighted_momentum_diff -8,6939
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 9,0000
match_load_p2 4,0000
match_load_diff 5,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 15,9361
serve_consistency_p2 2,9421
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 1,9483
utr_p1 0,6471
utr_p2 0,4178
utr_advantage 15,5541
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,5000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20286
API ID 15255439
Gamdom ID 543788
Torneo UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08
Superficie Hard
Ronda Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20286,
    "api_id": 15255439,
    "gamdom_id": 543788,
    "player1": "Pavel Lagutin",
    "player2": "Oscar Brown",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Carvoeiro Men +H 08",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Final",
    "date": "2025-12-21T19:55:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.2,
      "p2": 4.333333333333334
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.08,
      "p2": 5.1
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.13,
      "p2": 5.25
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6257,
    "prob_p2": 0.3743,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6257,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.44,
      "utr_ranking": 733,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 57,
      "utr_v4_losses": 16,
      "utr_v4_wr": 78.08219178082192,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.33,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 13.29,
          "opponent_name": "Diego Augusto Barreto Sanchez"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.72,
          "opponent_name": "Pedro Rodenas"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.6,
          "opponent_name": "Xavi Palomar"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.63,
          "opponent_name": "Abel Forger"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.5,
          "opponent_name": "Tiago Cacao"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:10.072359+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 77.77777777777779,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 9
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.9,
      "utr_ranking": 1196,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 17,
      "utr_v4_losses": 9,
      "utr_v4_wr": 65.38461538461539,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 4,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 12.07,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Takahiro Kubo"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.07,
          "opponent_name": "Guelfo Borghini Baldovinetti"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.85,
          "opponent_name": "Ruben Hartig"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.75,
          "opponent_name": "Richard Antoni"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 13.0,
          "opponent_name": "Samir Hamza Reguig"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:07.467100+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 4,
      "form_l10_matches": 4
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 13.44,
      "ranking": 733,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.9,
      "ranking": 1196,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.6470588235294118,
    "utr_p2": 0.4178494571041695,
    "utr_diff": 1.9482796146145596,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 68.0,
    "momentum_p2": 79.59183673469387,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.15000000000000002,
    "match_load_p1": 9,
    "match_load_p2": 4,
    "momentum_diff": -11.59183673469387,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 15.554058441041343,
    "utr_available": 0.5,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 5,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 15.936135188221826,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 2.942085784714332,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -8.693877551020407,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}