Ammar Elamin vs Ryotaro Matsumura
UTR PTT Saitama Men 05 | Hard |
26 Dic 2025, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Ryotaro Matsumura
Ammar …: 47,0% Ryotaro …: 53,0%
¿Por qué Ryotaro Matsumura?
UTR 12,65 vs 13,13 (-0,28) — Niveles similares
Ammar …
W78-L29
73% WR
vs UTR 11,5
L1
Ryotaro …
W72-L16
82% WR
vs UTR 12,0
W6
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Ammar … Ryotaro … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,36 33,3%
Gamdom 3,23 1,23 31,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,13 1,89 47,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Ammar …: +15,7% Ryotaro …: -15,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Ammar Elamin
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,65 Pro
UTR Ranking #1421
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 75% (8p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Ryotaro Matsumura
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 13,13 Pro
UTR Ranking #986
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 88% (8p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Ammar Elamin
Record 2025 78W - 29L (73%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 11,5
Últimos 5:
L W W W W
Ryotaro Matsumura
Record 2025 72W - 16L (82%)
Racha 6W
UTR Oponentes 12,0
Últimos 5:
W W W W W
Análisis Momentum
Ryotaro Matsumura en racha: 6 victorias seguidas.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -8,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -6,0000
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 3,0000
match_load_p1 5,0000
match_load_p2 5,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 5,9590
serve_consistency_p2 13,2069
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2800
utr_p1 0,5553
utr_p2 0,5882
utr_advantage -2,1773
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20318
API ID 15250845
Gamdom ID 541136
Torneo UTR PTT Saitama Men 05
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20318,
    "api_id": 15250845,
    "gamdom_id": 541136,
    "player1": "Ammar Elamin",
    "player2": "Ryotaro Matsumura",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Saitama Men 05",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-26T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.3636363636363638
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 3.23,
      "p2": 1.23
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.72,
      "p2": 1.23
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4697,
    "prob_p2": 0.5303,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5303,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.65,
      "utr_ranking": 1421,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 78,
      "utr_v4_losses": 29,
      "utr_v4_wr": 72.89719626168224,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.45,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.82,
          "opponent_name": "Mihai Alexandru Coman"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Miles Groom"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Iulius Maximus Stoica"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.18,
          "opponent_name": "Vasile Antonescu"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Alejandro Mateo Berge Nourescu"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:55:18.437709+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 75.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 13.13,
      "utr_ranking": 986,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 72,
      "utr_v4_losses": 16,
      "utr_v4_wr": 81.81818181818183,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 6,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.95,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "yuga tashiro"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Kotaro Mochizuki"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "takashi yoshida"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Jacob Kailiang Shen"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Tokitaka Ito"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:25.548870+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 87.5,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 8
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.65,
      "ranking": 1421,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 13.13,
      "ranking": 986,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5552941176470589,
    "utr_p2": 0.5882352941176471,
    "utr_diff": -0.27999999999999936,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 5,
    "match_load_p2": 5,
    "momentum_diff": -8.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -2.177293934681177,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.958954994134641,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 13.206909271572501,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -6.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 3,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 3,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}