Sae Noguchi vs Sayuri Hata
UTR PTT Saitama Women 03 | Hard |
22 Dic 2025, 08:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Sae Noguchi
Sae …: 61,7% Sayuri …: 38,3%
¿Por qué Sae Noguchi?
UTR 10,65 vs 8,00 (+2,61) — Ventaja clara
Sae …
W50-L20
71% WR
vs UTR 9,8
L1
Sayuri …
W7-L30
19% WR
vs UTR 9,1
L2
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (31%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Sae … Sayuri … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,03 10,00 97,1%
Gamdom 0,99 7,60 101,0%
IA Fair Odds 1,62 2,61 61,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Sae …: -28,9% Sayuri …: +28,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Sae Noguchi
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 10,65 Pro
UTR Ranking #708
Forma L5 0% (1p)
Forma L10 0% (1p)
WR Hard 0/1 = 0,0%
Sayuri Hata
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 8,00 General
UTR Ranking #5791
Forma L5 50% (0p)
Forma L10 50% (0p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Sae Noguchi
Record 2025 50W - 20L (71%)
Racha 1L
UTR Oponentes 9,8
Últimos 5:
L W L W W
Sayuri Hata
Record 2025 7W - 30L (19%)
Racha 2L
UTR Oponentes 9,1
Últimos 5:
L L W L L
Análisis Momentum
Momentum similar entre ambos jugadores.
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -13,5778
surface_matches_ratio 2,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 2,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 6,6667
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 2,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance -1,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3267
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3133
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 33,3040
first_serve_won_diff 39,5900
second_serve_won_diff 45,0300
bp_saved_diff 37,9900
bp_converted_diff 29,3100
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,5000
last3_wr_diff -0,5000
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 50,0000
momentum_diff -50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -20,0500
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 65,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 30,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 10,0000
serve_consistency_p2 10,0000
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 2,6100
utr_p1 0,3071
utr_p2 0,0000
utr_advantage 28,0494
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20356
API ID 15250687
Gamdom ID 541019
Torneo UTR PTT Saitama Women 03
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20356,
    "api_id": 15250687,
    "gamdom_id": 541019,
    "player1": "Sae Noguchi",
    "player2": "Sayuri Hata",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Saitama Women 03",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2025-12-22T04:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.0303030303030303,
      "p2": 10.0
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 0.99,
      "p2": 7.6
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.03,
      "p2": 11.17
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6173,
    "prob_p2": 0.3827,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6173,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 10.65,
      "utr_ranking": 708,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_wins": 50,
      "utr_v4_losses": 20,
      "utr_v4_wr": 71.42857142857143,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.8,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.73,
          "opponent_name": "Mayuka Aikawa"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.57,
          "opponent_name": "Ayumi Miyamoto"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 10.93,
          "opponent_name": "Natsumi Kawaguchi"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Konoha Kawasaki"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.1,
          "opponent_name": "Anri Nagata"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:26.667487+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 1,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 1,
      "form_l10_matches": 1
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 8.0,
      "utr_ranking": 5791,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 7,
      "utr_v4_losses": 30,
      "utr_v4_wr": 18.91891891891892,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 9.05,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.48,
          "opponent_name": "Yuzuha Negishi"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Sara Yoshida"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 8.0,
          "opponent_name": "Rio Wakayama"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.0,
          "opponent_name": "Moka Ito"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 9.06,
          "opponent_name": "Kanna Soeda"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:58:31.101630+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 50,
      "form_l10_wr": 50,
      "form_l5_matches": 0,
      "form_l10_matches": 0
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 10.65,
      "ranking": 708,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 8.0,
      "ranking": 5791,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.3070588235294117,
    "utr_p2": 0.0,
    "utr_diff": 2.6099999999999994,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 50.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 37.989999999999995,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.5,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.5,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -50.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.32666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": 28.04943578721117,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 29.309999999999995,
    "p1_surface_matches": 2,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 33.304,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.31333333333333335,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 39.589999999999996,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -1.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.0,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.0,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 6.666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 45.03,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 2.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -20.05,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 65,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -13.57777777777778,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}