Maria Timofeeva vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Brisbane | Hard | Qualification Final
03 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Maria …: 23,3% Aliaksandra …: 76,7%
¿Por qué Aliaksandra Sasnovich?
UTR 11,90 vs 12,29 (-0,23) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maria … Aliaksandra … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,10 1,67 47,6%
Gamdom 2,26 1,57 44,2%
IA Fair Odds 4,29 1,30 23,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Maria …: -20,9% Aliaksandra …: +20,9%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Timofeeva
Ranking #138
UTR Rating 11,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #129
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 1/5 = 20,0%
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Ranking #104
UTR Rating 12,29 Pro
UTR Ranking #42
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 15/31 = 48,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -29,0000
rank_ratio 0,7972
log_rank_ratio -0,2266
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -172,0000
best_rank_diff -64,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -28,3871
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -10,4127
surface_matches_ratio 0,1613
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 20,0000
surface_wr_p2 48,3871
surface_wr_p1_stable 33,3333
surface_wr_p2_stable 48,5714
p1_surface_matches 5,0000
p2_surface_matches 31,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,6000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,6833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,6861
first_serve_won_diff -7,0613
second_serve_won_diff 1,3742
bp_saved_diff -7,5419
bp_converted_diff 2,5484
aces_per_match_diff -0,2839
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 42,0000
momentum_p2 42,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 1,4800
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,5745
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 8,7942
serve_consistency_p2 9,4198
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 6,4338
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2710
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0451
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,2300
utr_p1 0,4588
utr_p2 0,4859
utr_advantage -1,9143
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20960
API ID 15305724
Gamdom ID 566973
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20960,
    "api_id": 15305724,
    "gamdom_id": 566973,
    "player1": "Maria Timofeeva",
    "player2": "Aliaksandra Sasnovich",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.1,
      "p2": 1.6666666666666665
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.26,
      "p2": 1.57
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.34,
      "p2": 1.57
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.233,
    "prob_p2": 0.767,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.767,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 138,
      "utr_singles": 11.9,
      "utr_ranking": 129,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 20.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 1,
      "wr_surface_total": 5,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 104,
      "utr_singles": 12.29,
      "utr_ranking": 42,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.38709677419355,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.9,
      "ranking": 129,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.29,
      "ranking": 42,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.45882352941176474,
    "utr_p2": 0.48588235294117654,
    "utr_diff": -0.23000000000000043,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7972027972027972,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 42.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 42.00000000000001,
    "points_diff": -172,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -7.541935483870972,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": 0.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 20.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 48.38709677419355,
    "utr_advantage": -1.9142738243861874,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -64,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.22664618186541183,
    "rank_advantage": -29,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -28.38709677419355,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.548387096774192,
    "p1_surface_matches": 5,
    "p2_surface_matches": 31,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.6861290322580658,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.574468085106383,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.2838709677419353,
    "combined_confidence": 0.6833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.061290322580646,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.6,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.794219777062857,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.419838775365289,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 6.433827098114917,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 48.57142857142857,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.3741935483871046,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.16129032258064516,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 1.4799999999999969,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 1,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.27099999999999996,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.04512903225806453,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -10.412698412698415,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}