Hanyu Guo vs Maja Chwalinska
Auckland | Hard |
03 Ene 2026, 02:00
03 Ene 2026, 02:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maja Chwalinska
Hanyu …: 33,8%
Maja …: 66,2%
¿Por qué Maja Chwalinska?
UTR 11,75 vs 12,04
(-0,30)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Hanyu … | Maja … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,80 | 1,91 | 55,6% |
| Gamdom | 1,94 | 1,77 | 51,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,96 | 1,51 | 33,8% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Hanyu …: -17,6%
Maja …: +17,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Hanyu Guo
Ranking
#173
UTR Rating
11,75 Pro
UTR Ranking
#171
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
9/17 = 52,9%
Maja Chwalinska
Ranking
#145
UTR Rating
12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking
#93
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
5/9 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -21,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8772 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,1310 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -78,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -47,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -2,6144 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -1,0901 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,8889 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 52,9412 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 52,3810 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,5906 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 17,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 9,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0588 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,5667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4200 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4933 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,4485 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,8667 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,2000 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,0333 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 3,0333 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,2876 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 58,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 14,7690 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 64,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,3846 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 2,3720 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 15,4453 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,3426 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0504 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0346 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,3000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4435 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4788 | |
| utr_advantage | -2,5168 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
20966
API ID
15305772
Gamdom ID
566977
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 20966,
"api_id": 15305772,
"gamdom_id": 566977,
"player1": "Hanyu Guo",
"player2": "Maja Chwalinska",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-02T22:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.8,
"p2": 1.9090909090909092
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.94,
"p2": 1.77
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.97,
"p2": 1.79
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3383,
"prob_p2": 0.6617,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6617,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 173,
"utr_singles": 11.75,
"utr_ranking": 171,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 52.94117647058824,
"wr_surface_wins": 9,
"wr_surface_total": 17,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 145,
"utr_singles": 12.04,
"utr_ranking": 93,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 9,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.75,
"ranking": 171,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.04,
"ranking": 93,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.47882352941176476,
"utr_diff": -0.3000000000000007,
"rank_ratio": 0.8771929824561403,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": -78,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.0333333333333314,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 19.999999999999993,
"p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
"p2_confidence": 0.42,
"surface_wr_p1": 52.94117647058824,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
"utr_advantage": -2.516778523489939,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -47,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.13102826240640414,
"rank_advantage": -21,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.75,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -2.614379084967318,
"bp_converted_diff": 3.0333333333333314,
"p1_surface_matches": 17,
"p2_surface_matches": 9,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.448496732026143,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.38461538461538464,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.287581699346405,
"combined_confidence": 0.4933333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.866666666666667,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.058823529411764705,
"serve_consistency_p1": 2.371974053951074,
"serve_consistency_p2": 15.445250872815121,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.3425575487749125,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.38095238095239,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.59057071960297,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.20000000000000995,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.8888888888888888,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 14.769000000000005,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 64,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.05041176470588238,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03455555555555556,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.0900783804009555,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}