Hanyu Guo vs Maja Chwalinska
Auckland | Hard |
03 Ene 2026, 02:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maja Chwalinska
Hanyu …: 33,8% Maja …: 66,2%
¿Por qué Maja Chwalinska?
UTR 11,75 vs 12,04 (-0,30) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Hanyu … Maja … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,80 1,91 55,6%
Gamdom 1,94 1,77 51,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,96 1,51 33,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Hanyu …: -17,6% Maja …: +17,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Hanyu Guo
Ranking #173
UTR Rating 11,75 Pro
UTR Ranking #171
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 9/17 = 52,9%
Maja Chwalinska
Ranking #145
UTR Rating 12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #93
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 5/9 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -21,0000
rank_ratio 0,8772
log_rank_ratio -0,1310
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -78,0000
best_rank_diff -47,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -2,6144
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -1,0901
surface_matches_ratio 1,8889
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 52,9412
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 52,3810
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,5906
p1_surface_matches 17,0000
p2_surface_matches 9,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0588
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,5667
p2_confidence 0,4200
combined_confidence 0,4933
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,4485
first_serve_won_diff 3,8667
second_serve_won_diff -0,2000
bp_saved_diff -2,0333
bp_converted_diff 3,0333
aces_per_match_diff 1,2876
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 58,0000
momentum_p2 38,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 14,7690
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 64,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 30,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3846
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7500
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 2,3720
serve_consistency_p2 15,4453
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,3426
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0504
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0346
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,3000
utr_p1 0,4435
utr_p2 0,4788
utr_advantage -2,5168
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20966
API ID 15305772
Gamdom ID 566977
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20966,
    "api_id": 15305772,
    "gamdom_id": 566977,
    "player1": "Hanyu Guo",
    "player2": "Maja Chwalinska",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-02T22:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.8,
      "p2": 1.9090909090909092
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.94,
      "p2": 1.77
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.97,
      "p2": 1.79
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3383,
    "prob_p2": 0.6617,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6617,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 173,
      "utr_singles": 11.75,
      "utr_ranking": 171,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 52.94117647058824,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 17,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 145,
      "utr_singles": 12.04,
      "utr_ranking": 93,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.75,
      "ranking": 171,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.04,
      "ranking": 93,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.44352941176470584,
    "utr_p2": 0.47882352941176476,
    "utr_diff": -0.3000000000000007,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8771929824561403,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 57.99999999999999,
    "momentum_p2": 38.0,
    "points_diff": -78,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.0333333333333314,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 19.999999999999993,
    "p1_confidence": 0.5666666666666667,
    "p2_confidence": 0.42,
    "surface_wr_p1": 52.94117647058824,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": -2.516778523489939,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -47,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.13102826240640414,
    "rank_advantage": -21,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.75,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -2.614379084967318,
    "bp_converted_diff": 3.0333333333333314,
    "p1_surface_matches": 17,
    "p2_surface_matches": 9,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.448496732026143,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.38461538461538464,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.287581699346405,
    "combined_confidence": 0.4933333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.866666666666667,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.058823529411764705,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 2.371974053951074,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 15.445250872815121,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.3425575487749125,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 52.38095238095239,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.59057071960297,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.20000000000000995,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.8888888888888888,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 14.769000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 64,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 30,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.05041176470588238,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.03455555555555556,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -1.0900783804009555,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}