Laura Pigossi vs Lilli Tagger
Auckland | Hard |
03 Ene 2026, 09:50
03 Ene 2026, 09:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lilli Tagger
Laura …: 42,7%
Lilli …: 57,3%
¿Por qué Lilli Tagger?
UTR 11,54 vs 11,89
(-0,37)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Laura … | Lilli … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 4,33 | 1,20 | 23,1% |
| Gamdom | 4,10 | 1,20 | 24,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,34 | 1,75 | 42,7% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Laura …: +21,0%
Lilli …: -21,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Laura Pigossi
Ranking
#202
UTR Rating
11,54 Pro
UTR Ranking
#239
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
4/11 = 36,4%
Lilli Tagger
Ranking
#155
UTR Rating
11,89 Junior
UTR Ranking
#2
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
56% (9p)
WR Hard
4/7 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -42,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,7910 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2344 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -92,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 52,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -20,7792 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -6,4364 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,5714 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 36,3636 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 57,1429 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 55,3247 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 11,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 7,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2727 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,4467 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,3933 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,4200 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -8,9203 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -5,2727 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -7,8727 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -12,8273 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 8,9636 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,9610 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -28,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -29,2300 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 29,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 61,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 16,6195 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,6462 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 4,8707 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0944 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0294 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,3700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4153 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4588 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,1583 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
20969
API ID
15305771
Gamdom ID
566985
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 20969,
"api_id": 15305771,
"gamdom_id": 566985,
"player1": "Laura Pigossi",
"player2": "Lilli Tagger",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-03T05:50:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 4.333333333333334,
"p2": 1.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 4.1,
"p2": 1.2
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 3.99,
"p2": 1.23
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4272,
"prob_p2": 0.5728,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5728,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 202,
"utr_singles": 11.54,
"utr_ranking": 239,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 36.36363636363637,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 11,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 155,
"utr_singles": 11.89,
"utr_ranking": 2,
"utr_division": "Junior",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
"wr_surface_wins": 4,
"wr_surface_total": 7,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 55.55555555555556,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 9
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.54,
"ranking": 239,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.89,
"ranking": 2,
"division": "Junior",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.41529411764705876,
"utr_p2": 0.45882352941176474,
"utr_diff": -0.370000000000001,
"rank_ratio": 0.7910447761194029,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 32.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": -92,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -12.827272727272728,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -28.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"surface_wr_p1": 36.36363636363637,
"surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
"utr_advantage": -3.1583440034144346,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 52,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.2344007058388443,
"rank_advantage": -42,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -20.779220779220772,
"bp_converted_diff": 8.963636363636354,
"p1_surface_matches": 11,
"p2_surface_matches": 7,
"serve_quality_diff": -8.92025974025973,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.961038961038961,
"combined_confidence": 0.42,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -5.272727272727273,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.2727272727272727,
"serve_consistency_p1": 16.619540737940497,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.646221208004167,
"surface_rank_synergy": 4.870664017430529,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.32467532467532,
"second_serve_won_diff": -7.872727272727275,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.5714285714285714,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -29.230000000000018,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 29,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 61,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.09436363636363632,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02942857142857136,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.436363636363634,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}