Laura Pigossi vs Lilli Tagger
Auckland | Hard |
03 Ene 2026, 09:50
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Lilli Tagger
Laura …: 42,7% Lilli …: 57,3%
¿Por qué Lilli Tagger?
UTR 11,54 vs 11,89 (-0,37) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Laura … Lilli … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 4,33 1,20 23,1%
Gamdom 4,10 1,20 24,4%
IA Fair Odds 2,34 1,75 42,7%
Edge vs Mercado: Laura …: +21,0% Lilli …: -21,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Laura Pigossi
Ranking #202
UTR Rating 11,54 Pro
UTR Ranking #239
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 4/11 = 36,4%
Lilli Tagger
Ranking #155
UTR Rating 11,89 Junior
UTR Ranking #2
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 56% (9p)
WR Hard 4/7 = 57,1%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -42,0000
rank_ratio 0,7910
log_rank_ratio -0,2344
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -92,0000
best_rank_diff 52,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -20,7792
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,4364
surface_matches_ratio 1,5714
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 36,3636
surface_wr_p2 57,1429
surface_wr_p1_stable 40,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 55,3247
p1_surface_matches 11,0000
p2_surface_matches 7,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2727
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,4467
p2_confidence 0,3933
combined_confidence 0,4200
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -8,9203
first_serve_won_diff -5,2727
second_serve_won_diff -7,8727
bp_saved_diff -12,8273
bp_converted_diff 8,9636
aces_per_match_diff -1,9610
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 32,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -29,2300
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 29,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 61,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 1,0000
serve_consistency_p1 16,6195
serve_consistency_p2 6,6462
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 4,8707
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0944
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0294
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,3700
utr_p1 0,4153
utr_p2 0,4588
utr_advantage -3,1583
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20969
API ID 15305771
Gamdom ID 566985
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20969,
    "api_id": 15305771,
    "gamdom_id": 566985,
    "player1": "Laura Pigossi",
    "player2": "Lilli Tagger",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-03T05:50:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 4.333333333333334,
      "p2": 1.2
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 4.1,
      "p2": 1.2
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 3.99,
      "p2": 1.23
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4272,
    "prob_p2": 0.5728,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5728,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 202,
      "utr_singles": 11.54,
      "utr_ranking": 239,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 36.36363636363637,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 11,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 155,
      "utr_singles": 11.89,
      "utr_ranking": 2,
      "utr_division": "Junior",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 57.14285714285714,
      "wr_surface_wins": 4,
      "wr_surface_total": 7,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 55.55555555555556,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 9
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.54,
      "ranking": 239,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 11.89,
      "ranking": 2,
      "division": "Junior",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.41529411764705876,
    "utr_p2": 0.45882352941176474,
    "utr_diff": -0.370000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 0.7910447761194029,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 32.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": -92,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -12.827272727272728,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -28.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.44666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p1": 36.36363636363637,
    "surface_wr_p2": 57.14285714285714,
    "utr_advantage": -3.1583440034144346,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 52,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.2344007058388443,
    "rank_advantage": -42,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 1.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -20.779220779220772,
    "bp_converted_diff": 8.963636363636354,
    "p1_surface_matches": 11,
    "p2_surface_matches": 7,
    "serve_quality_diff": -8.92025974025973,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.961038961038961,
    "combined_confidence": 0.42,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -5.272727272727273,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.2727272727272727,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 16.619540737940497,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.646221208004167,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 4.870664017430529,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 55.32467532467532,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.872727272727275,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5714285714285714,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -29.230000000000018,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 29,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 61,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.09436363636363632,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02942857142857136,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.436363636363634,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}