Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Jessika Ponchet
Auckland | Hard |
03 Ene 2026, 07:15
03 Ene 2026, 07:15
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Jessika Ponchet
Yuliia …: 49,4%
Jessika …: 50,6%
¿Por qué Jessika Ponchet?
UTR 12,00 vs 11,72
(+0,13)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Yuliia … | Jessika … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,83 | 1,83 | 54,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,53 | 2,34 | 65,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,02 | 1,98 | 49,4% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Yuliia …: -0,6%
Jessika …: +0,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Yuliia Starodubtseva
Ranking
#110
UTR Rating
12,00 Pro
UTR Ranking
#106
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
30% (10p)
WR Hard
10/27 = 37,0%
Jessika Ponchet
Ranking
#166
UTR Rating
11,72 Pro
UTR Ranking
#177
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
6/15 = 40,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 57,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,5044 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4084 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 261,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 41,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -2,9630 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -2,3769 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,8000 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 37,0370 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 38,7097 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 42,1053 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 27,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 15,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2593 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,9000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,5000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,7000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -7,8813 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,5200 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,0400 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,2400 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 15,0400 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,0667 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 10,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 2,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 8,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 9,1840 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 67,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 23,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,4333 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 4,9330 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 13,4543 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -1,2101 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1866 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0430 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4541 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4388 | |
| utr_advantage | 1,1022 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
20975
API ID
15305781
Gamdom ID
566975
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 20975,
"api_id": 15305781,
"gamdom_id": 566975,
"player1": "Yuliia Starodubtseva",
"player2": "Jessika Ponchet",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-03T03:15:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.8333333333333335,
"p2": 1.8333333333333335
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.53,
"p2": 2.34
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.52,
"p2": 2.45
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4939,
"prob_p2": 0.5061,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5061,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 110,
"utr_singles": 12.0,
"utr_ranking": 106,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 37.03703703703704,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 27,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 30.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 166,
"utr_singles": 11.72,
"utr_ranking": 177,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 40.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 15,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.0,
"ranking": 106,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 11.72,
"ranking": 177,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.45411764705882346,
"utr_p2": 0.4388235294117648,
"utr_diff": 0.129999999999999,
"rank_ratio": 1.5044247787610618,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 10.0,
"momentum_p2": 2.0,
"points_diff": 261,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.240000000000009,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.2,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 8.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.9,
"p2_confidence": 0.5,
"surface_wr_p1": 37.03703703703704,
"surface_wr_p2": 40.0,
"utr_advantage": 1.1021619330224588,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 41,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.40841061833792114,
"rank_advantage": 57,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.2,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -2.962962962962962,
"bp_converted_diff": 15.040000000000006,
"p1_surface_matches": 27,
"p2_surface_matches": 15,
"serve_quality_diff": -7.8813333333333375,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.43333333333333335,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.0666666666666664,
"combined_confidence": 0.7,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.5200000000000102,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.25925925925925924,
"serve_consistency_p1": 4.9329771330831464,
"serve_consistency_p2": 13.454302892551407,
"surface_rank_synergy": -1.2101055358160622,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 38.70967741935484,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.10526315789473,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.03999999999999915,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.8,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 9.184000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 67,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 23,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.18662962962962953,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.04300000000000004,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -2.376910016977925,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}