Maria Sakkari vs Naomi Osaka
United Cup | Hard |
02 Ene 2026, 13:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Naomi Osaka
Maria …: 16,9% Naomi …: 83,2%
¿Por qué Naomi Osaka?
UTR 12,17 vs 12,60 (-0,41) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Maria … Naomi … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,75 1,44 36,4%
Gamdom 2,75 1,45 36,4%
IA Fair Odds 5,93 1,20 16,9%
Edge vs Mercado: Maria …: -17,5% Naomi …: +17,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Sakkari
Ranking #53
UTR Rating 12,17 Pro
UTR Ranking #60
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 15/35 = 42,9%
Naomi Osaka
Ranking #17
UTR Rating 12,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 23/31 = 74,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -36,0000
rank_ratio 0,3077
log_rank_ratio -1,1787
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -1371,0000
best_rank_diff -2,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -31,3364
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -27,8388
surface_matches_ratio 1,1290
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 42,8571
surface_wr_p2 74,1935
surface_wr_p1_stable 43,5897
surface_wr_p2_stable 71,4286
p1_surface_matches 35,0000
p2_surface_matches 31,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,1429
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -12,8428
first_serve_won_diff -11,0229
second_serve_won_diff -2,8343
bp_saved_diff -5,6114
bp_converted_diff -7,8143
aces_per_match_diff -3,2406
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 78,0000
momentum_diff -28,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -21,4300
current_streak_diff -3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 73,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 79,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6810
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0777
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4444
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 10,2899
serve_consistency_p2 9,0283
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 36,9348
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0354
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2059
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4100
utr_p1 0,4929
utr_p2 0,5412
utr_advantage -3,3078
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20978
API ID 15141900
Gamdom ID 479598
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20978,
    "api_id": 15141900,
    "gamdom_id": 479598,
    "player1": "Maria Sakkari",
    "player2": "Naomi Osaka",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-02T09:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.44
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.75,
      "p2": 1.45
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.7,
      "p2": 1.45
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1685,
    "prob_p2": 0.8315,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8315,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 53,
      "utr_singles": 12.17,
      "utr_ranking": 60,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 17,
      "utr_singles": 12.6,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 74.19354838709677,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.17,
      "ranking": 60,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.6,
      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.49294117647058816,
    "utr_p2": 0.5411764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -0.41000000000000014,
    "rank_ratio": 0.3076923076923077,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -1371,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -5.6114285714285685,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -27.999999999999986,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
    "surface_wr_p2": 74.19354838709677,
    "utr_advantage": -3.307785397337638,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -2,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -1.1786549963416462,
    "rank_advantage": -36,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -31.336405529953915,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.81428571428571,
    "p1_surface_matches": 35,
    "p2_surface_matches": 31,
    "serve_quality_diff": -12.842820276497704,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6810344827586207,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.077720207253886,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -3.2405529953917047,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -11.022857142857156,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 10.289874599545733,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.028255637966963,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 36.934810945268175,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.58974358974359,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.42857142857143,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.83428571428572,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.1290322580645162,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -21.430000000000007,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 73,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 79,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03542857142857142,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2059354838709676,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -27.83882783882784,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}