Maria Sakkari vs Naomi Osaka
United Cup | Hard |
02 Ene 2026, 13:00
02 Ene 2026, 13:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Naomi Osaka
Maria …: 16,9%
Naomi …: 83,2%
¿Por qué Naomi Osaka?
UTR 12,17 vs 12,60
(-0,41)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Maria … | Naomi … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,75 | 1,44 | 36,4% |
| Gamdom | 2,75 | 1,45 | 36,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,93 | 1,20 | 16,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Maria …: -17,5%
Naomi …: +17,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Maria Sakkari
Ranking
#53
UTR Rating
12,17 Pro
UTR Ranking
#60
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
15/35 = 42,9%
Naomi Osaka
Ranking
#17
UTR Rating
12,60 Pro
UTR Ranking
#15
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
23/31 = 74,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -36,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,3077 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -1,1787 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -1371,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -2,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -31,3364 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -27,8388 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,1290 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 42,8571 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 74,1935 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 43,5897 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 71,4286 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,1429 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -12,8428 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -11,0229 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,8343 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -5,6114 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -7,8143 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -3,2406 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 78,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -28,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -21,4300 | |
| current_streak_diff | -3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 73,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 79,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6810 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0777 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4444 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 10,2899 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 9,0283 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 36,9348 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0354 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2059 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4929 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5412 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,3078 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
20978
API ID
15141900
Gamdom ID
479598
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 20978,
"api_id": 15141900,
"gamdom_id": 479598,
"player1": "Maria Sakkari",
"player2": "Naomi Osaka",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-02T09:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.75,
"p2": 1.44
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.75,
"p2": 1.45
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.7,
"p2": 1.45
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1685,
"prob_p2": 0.8315,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8315,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 53,
"utr_singles": 12.17,
"utr_ranking": 60,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 42.857142857142854,
"wr_surface_wins": 15,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 17,
"utr_singles": 12.6,
"utr_ranking": 15,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 74.19354838709677,
"wr_surface_wins": 23,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.17,
"ranking": 60,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.6,
"ranking": 15,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.49294117647058816,
"utr_p2": 0.5411764705882353,
"utr_diff": -0.41000000000000014,
"rank_ratio": 0.3076923076923077,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -1371,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -5.6114285714285685,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -27.999999999999986,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 42.857142857142854,
"surface_wr_p2": 74.19354838709677,
"utr_advantage": -3.307785397337638,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -2,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -1.1786549963416462,
"rank_advantage": -36,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4444444444444444,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -31.336405529953915,
"bp_converted_diff": -7.81428571428571,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 31,
"serve_quality_diff": -12.842820276497704,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6810344827586207,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.077720207253886,
"aces_per_match_diff": -3.2405529953917047,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -3,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -11.022857142857156,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.14285714285714285,
"serve_consistency_p1": 10.289874599545733,
"serve_consistency_p2": 9.028255637966963,
"surface_rank_synergy": 36.934810945268175,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 43.58974358974359,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.42857142857143,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.83428571428572,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.1290322580645162,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -21.430000000000007,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 73,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 79,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.03542857142857142,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2059354838709676,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -27.83882783882784,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}