Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Shintaro Mochizuki
United Cup | Hard |
02 Ene 2026, 15:05
02 Ene 2026, 15:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Stefanos …: 63,0%
Shintaro …: 37,0%
¿Por qué Stefanos Tsitsipas?
UTR 15,45 vs 14,58
(+1,07)
— Ligera ventaja
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Stefanos … | Shintaro … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,36 | 3,20 | 73,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,41 | 2,95 | 70,9% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,59 | 2,70 | 63,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Stefanos …: -7,2%
Shintaro …: +7,2%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Ranking
#35
UTR Rating
15,45 Pro
UTR Ranking
#30
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
13/23 = 56,5%
Shintaro Mochizuki
Ranking
#112
UTR Rating
14,58 Pro
UTR Ranking
#150
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
26/43 = 60,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 63,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 2,7500 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,0116 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 733,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 89,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -3,9434 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -3,5500 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5349 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 56,5217 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 60,4651 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 59,5745 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 23,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 43,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,1304 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7667 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 16,8035 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 9,7100 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 6,0973 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 2,2855 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -5,7092 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 5,0597 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 9,5260 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 126,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,2295 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,7342 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6154 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,2857 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,3157 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,4178 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -3,9891 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0022 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1677 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -3,9434 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,0700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9059 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7800 | |
| utr_advantage | 7,0557 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
20979
API ID
15141905
Gamdom ID
479599
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 20979,
"api_id": 15141905,
"gamdom_id": 479599,
"player1": "Stefanos Tsitsipas",
"player2": "Shintaro Mochizuki",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-02T11:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3599999999999999,
"p2": 3.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.41,
"p2": 2.95
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.39,
"p2": 2.97
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.63,
"prob_p2": 0.37,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.63,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 35,
"utr_singles": 15.45,
"utr_ranking": 30,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 56.52173913043478,
"wr_surface_wins": 13,
"wr_surface_total": 23,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 112,
"utr_singles": 14.58,
"utr_ranking": 150,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.46511627906976,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 43,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.45,
"ranking": 30,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.58,
"ranking": 150,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7800000000000001,
"utr_diff": 1.0699999999999985,
"rank_ratio": 2.75,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 32.0,
"momentum_p2": 32.0,
"points_diff": 733,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 2.285540950455008,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 0.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 56.52173913043478,
"surface_wr_p2": 60.46511627906976,
"utr_advantage": 7.055720408836126,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 89,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.0116009116784799,
"rank_advantage": 63,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6153846153846154,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.2857142857142857,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -3.94337714863498,
"bp_converted_diff": -5.709201213346816,
"p1_surface_matches": 23,
"p2_surface_matches": 43,
"serve_quality_diff": 16.803498483316474,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.2295081967213115,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7341772151898734,
"aces_per_match_diff": 5.059656218402426,
"combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 9.71001011122344,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.13043478260869565,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.31568123960183,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.417828128248603,
"surface_rank_synergy": -3.98912391865123,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.55555555555556,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 59.57446808510638,
"second_serve_won_diff": 6.097269969666321,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5348837209302325,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 9.525999999999996,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -3.94337714863498,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 126,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 60,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0022173913043478377,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.16765116279069758,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.5500394011032284,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}