Arthur Rinderknech vs Stan Wawrinka
United Cup | Hard |
03 Ene 2026, 08:05
03 Ene 2026, 08:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stan Wawrinka
Arthur …: 47,9%
Stan …: 52,1%
¿Por qué Stan Wawrinka?
UTR 15,47 vs 14,64
(+1,06)
— Ligera ventaja
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Arthur … | Stan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,36 | 3,20 | 73,5% |
| Gamdom | 1,44 | 2,80 | 69,4% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,09 | 1,92 | 47,9% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Arthur …: -22,3%
Stan …: +22,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Arthur Rinderknech
Ranking
#28
UTR Rating
15,47 Pro
UTR Ranking
#28
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
16/35 = 45,7%
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking
#139
UTR Rating
14,64 Pro
UTR Ranking
#139
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
10/20 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 128,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 5,4138 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,6889 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1130,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -24,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -4,2857 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -3,2051 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,7500 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 45,7143 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 46,1538 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0857 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 6,2683 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -3,8543 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -1,4914 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 6,8514 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -0,2229 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 4,3214 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -16,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -14,8400 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 59,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 58,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0818 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 2,4615 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6250 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,1127 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,1883 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -7,2384 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1709 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1280 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -8,5714 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 1,0600 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9094 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7847 | |
| utr_advantage | 6,9737 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
20984
API ID
15141907
Gamdom ID
479603
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 20984,
"api_id": 15141907,
"gamdom_id": 479603,
"player1": "Arthur Rinderknech",
"player2": "Stan Wawrinka",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-03T04:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3599999999999999,
"p2": 3.2
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.44,
"p2": 2.8
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.43,
"p2": 2.76
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4791,
"prob_p2": 0.5209,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5209,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 28,
"utr_singles": 15.47,
"utr_ranking": 28,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 45.714285714285715,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 139,
"utr_singles": 14.64,
"utr_ranking": 139,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.47,
"ranking": 28,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.64,
"ranking": 139,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7847058823529411,
"utr_diff": 1.0600000000000005,
"rank_ratio": 5.413793103448276,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 22.0,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": 1130,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.851428571428585,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -16.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 45.714285714285715,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 6.9736842105263195,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -24,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.688949975361834,
"rank_advantage": 128,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -4.285714285714285,
"bp_converted_diff": -0.2228571428571371,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 20,
"serve_quality_diff": 6.26828571428571,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0818181818181818,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 2.4615384615384617,
"aces_per_match_diff": 4.321428571428571,
"combined_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -3.8542857142856946,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.08571428571428572,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.112713783186262,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.18832184779795,
"surface_rank_synergy": -7.2383570372650015,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 46.15384615384615,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": -1.4914285714285782,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.75,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -14.84000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -8.57142857142857,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 59,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 58,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.17085714285714287,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.128,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.2051282051282053,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}