Alex de Minaur vs Casper Ruud
United Cup | Hard |
03 Ene 2026, 13:45
03 Ene 2026, 13:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Alex …: 55,6%
Casper …: 44,4%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 15,89 vs 15,57
(+0,14)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Alex … | Casper … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,44 | 2,75 | 69,4% |
| Gamdom | 1,32 | 3,40 | 75,8% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,80 | 2,25 | 55,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Alex …: -10,0%
Casper …: +10,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alex de Minaur
Ranking
#6
UTR Rating
15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking
#7
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
39/55 = 70,9%
Casper Ruud
Ranking
#13
UTR Rating
15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#22
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
22/33 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 5,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,7143 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,5390 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 1,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1255,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -4,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 4,2424 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 4,6267 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,6667 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 70,9091 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 69,4915 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 64,8649 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 55,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,4182 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -2,7238 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -0,0218 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 3,8055 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,2739 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,0127 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,9273 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 0,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 17,2800 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 48,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 65,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8100 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0465 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5882 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5714 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,5345 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,2089 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 2,2867 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,2041 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1717 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 4,2424 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,1400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9447 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9282 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,8772 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
20986
API ID
15141990
Gamdom ID
479622
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 20986,
"api_id": 15141990,
"gamdom_id": 479622,
"player1": "Alex de Minaur",
"player2": "Casper Ruud",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-03T09:45:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.44,
"p2": 2.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.32,
"p2": 3.4
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.49
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5563,
"prob_p2": 0.4437,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5563,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 6,
"utr_singles": 15.89,
"utr_ranking": 7,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
"wr_surface_wins": 39,
"wr_surface_total": 55,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 13,
"utr_singles": 15.57,
"utr_ranking": 22,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.89,
"ranking": 7,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.57,
"ranking": 22,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9282352941176472,
"utr_diff": 0.14000000000000057,
"rank_ratio": 1.7142857142857142,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
"points_diff": 1255,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.2739393939394006,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -3.552713678800501e-15,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 70.9090909090909,
"surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
"utr_advantage": 0.877192982456144,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -4,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.5389965007326869,
"rank_advantage": 5,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5882352941176471,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 4.242424242424249,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.0127272727272683,
"p1_surface_matches": 55,
"p2_surface_matches": 33,
"serve_quality_diff": -2.7238181818181886,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.81,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0465116279069768,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.9272727272727277,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 1,
"first_serve_won_diff": -0.021818181818176186,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.41818181818181815,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.5345383511547075,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.208941228388941,
"surface_rank_synergy": 2.2866518212901905,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.49152542372882,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.86486486486487,
"second_serve_won_diff": 3.805454545454552,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.6666666666666667,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 17.279999999999994,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 4.242424242424249,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 48,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 65,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2040909090909091,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17166666666666652,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.6266605588639464,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}