Alex de Minaur vs Casper Ruud
United Cup | Hard |
03 Ene 2026, 13:45
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Alex de Minaur
Alex …: 55,6% Casper …: 44,4%
¿Por qué Alex de Minaur?
UTR 15,89 vs 15,57 (+0,14) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alex … Casper … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,75 69,4%
Gamdom 1,32 3,40 75,8%
IA Fair Odds 1,80 2,25 55,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Alex …: -10,0% Casper …: +10,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alex de Minaur
Ranking #6
UTR Rating 15,89 Pro
UTR Ranking #7
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 39/55 = 70,9%
Casper Ruud
Ranking #13
UTR Rating 15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #22
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 22/33 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 5,0000
rank_ratio 1,7143
log_rank_ratio 0,5390
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1255,0000
best_rank_diff -4,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 4,2424
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 4,6267
surface_matches_ratio 1,6667
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 70,9091
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 69,4915
surface_wr_p2_stable 64,8649
p1_surface_matches 55,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,4182
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -2,7238
first_serve_won_diff -0,0218
second_serve_won_diff 3,8055
bp_saved_diff -3,2739
bp_converted_diff -2,0127
aces_per_match_diff -1,9273
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 0,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 17,2800
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 48,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 65,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8100
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0465
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5882
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 7,5345
serve_consistency_p2 8,2089
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 2,2867
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,2041
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1717
elite_surface_amplifier 4,2424
UTR
utr_diff 0,1400
utr_p1 0,9447
utr_p2 0,9282
utr_advantage 0,8772
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20986
API ID 15141990
Gamdom ID 479622
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20986,
    "api_id": 15141990,
    "gamdom_id": 479622,
    "player1": "Alex de Minaur",
    "player2": "Casper Ruud",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-03T09:45:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.44,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.32,
      "p2": 3.4
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.49
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5563,
    "prob_p2": 0.4437,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5563,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 6,
      "utr_singles": 15.89,
      "utr_ranking": 7,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.9090909090909,
      "wr_surface_wins": 39,
      "wr_surface_total": 55,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 13,
      "utr_singles": 15.57,
      "utr_ranking": 22,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.89,
      "ranking": 7,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.57,
      "ranking": 22,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9447058823529413,
    "utr_p2": 0.9282352941176472,
    "utr_diff": 0.14000000000000057,
    "rank_ratio": 1.7142857142857142,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": 1255,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.2739393939394006,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -3.552713678800501e-15,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 70.9090909090909,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": 0.877192982456144,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -4,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.5389965007326869,
    "rank_advantage": 5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5882352941176471,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 4.242424242424249,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.0127272727272683,
    "p1_surface_matches": 55,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": -2.7238181818181886,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.81,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0465116279069768,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.9272727272727277,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -0.021818181818176186,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.41818181818181815,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.5345383511547075,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.208941228388941,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 2.2866518212901905,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 69.49152542372882,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.86486486486487,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 3.805454545454552,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.6666666666666667,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 17.279999999999994,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 4.242424242424249,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 48,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 65,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.2040909090909091,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17166666666666652,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 4.6266605588639464,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}