Emma Raducanu vs Naomi Osaka
United Cup | Hard |
04 Ene 2026, 07:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Naomi Osaka
Emma …: 34,8% Naomi …: 65,2%
¿Por qué Naomi Osaka?
UTR 12,59 vs 12,60 (-0,01) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Emma … Naomi … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,00 1,80 50,0%
Gamdom 1,86 1,95 53,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,87 1,53 34,8%
Edge vs Mercado: Emma …: -12,6% Naomi …: +12,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Emma Raducanu
Ranking #29
UTR Rating 12,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #16
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 17/30 = 56,7%
Naomi Osaka
Ranking #17
UTR Rating 12,60 Pro
UTR Ranking #15
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 23/31 = 74,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -13,0000
rank_ratio 0,5517
log_rank_ratio -0,5947
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -924,0000
best_rank_diff -9,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -17,5269
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -15,5462
surface_matches_ratio 0,9677
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 56,6667
surface_wr_p2 74,1935
surface_wr_p1_stable 55,8824
surface_wr_p2_stable 71,4286
p1_surface_matches 30,0000
p2_surface_matches 31,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,1333
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -10,2430
first_serve_won_diff -8,0000
second_serve_won_diff -4,0000
bp_saved_diff 2,4000
bp_converted_diff 2,3000
aces_per_match_diff -2,5215
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 8,0000
momentum_p2 78,0000
momentum_diff -70,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -55,3610
current_streak_diff -5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 81,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 80,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7172
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0777
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5455
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6667
serve_consistency_p1 9,6376
serve_consistency_p2 9,0283
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 10,4234
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0797
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2289
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,0100
utr_p1 0,5400
utr_p2 0,5412
utr_advantage -0,0794
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 20999
API ID 15141906
Gamdom ID 479608
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status cancelled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 20999,
    "api_id": 15141906,
    "gamdom_id": 479608,
    "player1": "Emma Raducanu",
    "player2": "Naomi Osaka",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-04T03:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "cancelled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.0,
      "p2": 1.8
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.86,
      "p2": 1.95
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.84,
      "p2": 1.94
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.348,
    "prob_p2": 0.652,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.652,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 29,
      "utr_singles": 12.59,
      "utr_ranking": 16,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 56.666666666666664,
      "wr_surface_wins": 17,
      "wr_surface_total": 30,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 17,
      "utr_singles": 12.6,
      "utr_ranking": 15,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 74.19354838709677,
      "wr_surface_wins": 23,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.59,
      "ranking": 16,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.6,
      "ranking": 15,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.54,
    "utr_p2": 0.5411764705882353,
    "utr_diff": -0.009999999999999787,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5517241379310345,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 8.0,
    "momentum_p2": 77.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -924,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 2.3999999999999986,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -69.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 56.666666666666664,
    "surface_wr_p2": 74.19354838709677,
    "utr_advantage": -0.0793965859468026,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -9,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5947071077466928,
    "rank_advantage": -13,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5454545454545454,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -17.526881720430104,
    "bp_converted_diff": 2.3000000000000043,
    "p1_surface_matches": 30,
    "p2_surface_matches": 31,
    "serve_quality_diff": -10.243010752688171,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7171717171717171,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.077720207253886,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -2.5215053763440856,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -8.0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.13333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.637637369640577,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 9.028255637966963,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 10.423361135775366,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 55.88235294117647,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.42857142857143,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -4.0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.967741935483871,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -55.36100000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 81,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 80,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.07966666666666666,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.22893548387096763,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -15.54621848739496,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}