Jasmine Paolini vs Belinda Bencic
United Cup | Hard |
04 Ene 2026, 13:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Belinda Bencic
Jasmine …: 35,4% Belinda …: 64,6%
¿Por qué Belinda Bencic?
UTR 12,59 vs 12,48 (+0,12) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jasmine … Belinda … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,50 2,63 66,7%
Gamdom 1,76 2,08 56,8%
IA Fair Odds 2,83 1,55 35,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Jasmine …: -28,3% Belinda …: +28,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jasmine Paolini
Ranking #8
UTR Rating 12,59 Pro
UTR Ranking #17
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 27/41 = 65,9%
Belinda Bencic
Ranking #10
UTR Rating 12,48 Pro
UTR Ranking #23
Forma L5 100% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 30/41 = 73,2%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 3,0000
rank_ratio 1,3750
log_rank_ratio 0,3185
rank_tier_advantage 1,0000
points_diff 1206,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -7,3171
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -6,6667
surface_matches_ratio 1,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,8537
surface_wr_p2 73,1707
surface_wr_p1_stable 64,4444
surface_wr_p2_stable 71,1111
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 41,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3171
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -4,0127
first_serve_won_diff -4,7829
second_serve_won_diff -1,8268
bp_saved_diff -2,0878
bp_converted_diff 0,7780
aces_per_match_diff -0,5366
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,8000
last3_wr_diff -1,0000
momentum_p1 2,0000
momentum_p2 100,0000
momentum_diff -98,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -58,3000
current_streak_diff -9,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 58,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 66,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7569
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7130
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 6,0415
serve_consistency_p2 10,1543
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -2,3301
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1555
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2347
elite_surface_amplifier -7,3171
UTR
utr_diff 0,1200
utr_p1 0,5400
utr_p2 0,5259
utr_advantage 0,9577
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21002
API ID 15141901
Gamdom ID 479611
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21002,
    "api_id": 15141901,
    "gamdom_id": 479611,
    "player1": "Jasmine Paolini",
    "player2": "Belinda Bencic",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-04T09:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.625
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.76,
      "p2": 2.08
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.76,
      "p2": 2.03
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3538,
    "prob_p2": 0.6462,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6462,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 8,
      "utr_singles": 12.59,
      "utr_ranking": 17,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.85365853658537,
      "wr_surface_wins": 27,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 10,
      "utr_singles": 12.48,
      "utr_ranking": 23,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 73.17073170731707,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 100.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.59,
      "ranking": 17,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.48,
      "ranking": 23,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.54,
    "utr_p2": 0.5258823529411766,
    "utr_diff": 0.11999999999999922,
    "rank_ratio": 1.375,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 2.0,
    "momentum_p2": 99.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": 1206,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.0878048780487717,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -1.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.8,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -97.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.85365853658537,
    "surface_wr_p2": 73.17073170731707,
    "utr_advantage": 0.957701516360728,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.3184537311185346,
    "rank_advantage": 3,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -7.317073170731703,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0.7780487804878078,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 41,
    "serve_quality_diff": -4.012682926829271,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7569444444444444,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7130434782608696,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.5365853658536586,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -9,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.782926829268291,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.3170731707317073,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.041494744663889,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.154311753181496,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -2.330149252086837,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.44444444444444,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 71.11111111111111,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -1.8268292682926912,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -58.300000000000004,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -7.317073170731703,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 58,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 66,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.15553658536585369,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.23470731707317072,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -6.666666666666671,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}