Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka
United Cup | Hard |
04 Ene 2026, 15:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stan Wawrinka
Flavio …: 41,1% Stan …: 58,9%
¿Por qué Stan Wawrinka?
UTR 15,33 vs 14,64 (+0,94) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Flavio … Stan … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,44 2,75 69,2%
Gamdom 1,90 1,91 52,6%
IA Fair Odds 2,43 1,70 41,1%
Edge vs Mercado: Flavio …: -24,5% Stan …: +24,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Flavio Cobolli
Ranking #22
UTR Rating 15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking #44
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 12/31 = 38,7%
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking #139
UTR Rating 14,64 Pro
UTR Ranking #139
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 10/20 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 135,0000
rank_ratio 7,1364
log_rank_ratio 1,9652
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1603,0000
best_rank_diff -14,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -11,2903
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -8,3333
surface_matches_ratio 1,5500
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 38,7097
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 40,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 31,0000
p2_surface_matches 20,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2258
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,6667
combined_confidence 0,8333
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -6,2680
first_serve_won_diff -8,1090
second_serve_won_diff 0,7400
bp_saved_diff -0,2277
bp_converted_diff -2,5174
aces_per_match_diff -1,2177
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 22,0000
momentum_p2 38,0000
momentum_diff -16,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -10,2900
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 60,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 59,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6633
winner_ue_ratio_p2 2,4615
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4375
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6250
serve_consistency_p1 9,5103
serve_consistency_p2 8,1883
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -22,1878
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,2479
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1350
elite_surface_amplifier -22,5806
UTR
utr_diff 0,9400
utr_p1 0,8953
utr_p2 0,7847
utr_advantage 6,2087
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21003
API ID 15141899
Gamdom ID 569643
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21003,
    "api_id": 15141899,
    "gamdom_id": 569643,
    "player1": "Flavio Cobolli",
    "player2": "Stan Wawrinka",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-04T11:20:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.4444444444444444,
      "p2": 2.75
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.9,
      "p2": 1.91
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.29,
      "p2": 3.56
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4109,
    "prob_p2": 0.5891,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5891,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 22,
      "utr_singles": 15.33,
      "utr_ranking": 44,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 38.70967741935484,
      "wr_surface_wins": 12,
      "wr_surface_total": 31,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 139,
      "utr_singles": 14.64,
      "utr_ranking": 139,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 10,
      "wr_surface_total": 20,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.33,
      "ranking": 44,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.64,
      "ranking": 139,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8952941176470588,
    "utr_p2": 0.7847058823529411,
    "utr_diff": 0.9399999999999995,
    "rank_ratio": 7.136363636363637,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 22.0,
    "momentum_p2": 38.0,
    "points_diff": 1603,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.227741935483877,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -16.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
    "surface_wr_p1": 38.70967741935484,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": 6.208718626155875,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -14,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.9652033519899923,
    "rank_advantage": 135,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4375,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -11.29032258064516,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.517419354838701,
    "p1_surface_matches": 31,
    "p2_surface_matches": 20,
    "serve_quality_diff": -6.268000000000001,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6633165829145728,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 2.4615384615384617,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.217741935483871,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -8.109032258064502,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.22580645161290322,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.51033424773572,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.18832184779795,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -22.187779780532168,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0.740000000000002,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.55,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -10.290000000000006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -22.58064516129032,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 60,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 59,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.24790322580645163,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.135,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.333333333333332,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}