Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka
United Cup | Hard |
04 Ene 2026, 15:20
04 Ene 2026, 15:20
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Stan Wawrinka
Flavio …: 41,1%
Stan …: 58,9%
¿Por qué Stan Wawrinka?
UTR 15,33 vs 14,64
(+0,94)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Flavio … | Stan … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,44 | 2,75 | 69,2% |
| Gamdom | 1,90 | 1,91 | 52,6% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,43 | 1,70 | 41,1% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Flavio …: -24,5%
Stan …: +24,5%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Flavio Cobolli
Ranking
#22
UTR Rating
15,33 Pro
UTR Ranking
#44
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
12/31 = 38,7%
Stan Wawrinka
Ranking
#139
UTR Rating
14,64 Pro
UTR Ranking
#139
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
10/20 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 135,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 7,1364 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,9652 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1603,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -14,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -11,2903 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -8,3333 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,5500 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 38,7097 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 31,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 20,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2258 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,6667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8333 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -6,2680 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -8,1090 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 0,7400 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,2277 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,5174 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,2177 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 38,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -16,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -10,2900 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 59,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,6633 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 2,4615 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,4375 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6250 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,5103 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,1883 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -22,1878 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,2479 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1350 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -22,5806 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,9400 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8953 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7847 | |
| utr_advantage | 6,2087 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21003
API ID
15141899
Gamdom ID
569643
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21003,
"api_id": 15141899,
"gamdom_id": 569643,
"player1": "Flavio Cobolli",
"player2": "Stan Wawrinka",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-04T11:20:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.4444444444444444,
"p2": 2.75
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.9,
"p2": 1.91
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.29,
"p2": 3.56
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4109,
"prob_p2": 0.5891,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5891,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 22,
"utr_singles": 15.33,
"utr_ranking": 44,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 38.70967741935484,
"wr_surface_wins": 12,
"wr_surface_total": 31,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 139,
"utr_singles": 14.64,
"utr_ranking": 139,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 10,
"wr_surface_total": 20,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.33,
"ranking": 44,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.64,
"ranking": 139,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8952941176470588,
"utr_p2": 0.7847058823529411,
"utr_diff": 0.9399999999999995,
"rank_ratio": 7.136363636363637,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 22.0,
"momentum_p2": 38.0,
"points_diff": 1603,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.227741935483877,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -16.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.6666666666666666,
"surface_wr_p1": 38.70967741935484,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": 6.208718626155875,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -14,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.9652033519899923,
"rank_advantage": 135,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.4375,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.625,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -11.29032258064516,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.517419354838701,
"p1_surface_matches": 31,
"p2_surface_matches": 20,
"serve_quality_diff": -6.268000000000001,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6633165829145728,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 2.4615384615384617,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.217741935483871,
"combined_confidence": 0.8333333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -8.109032258064502,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.22580645161290322,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.51033424773572,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.18832184779795,
"surface_rank_synergy": -22.187779780532168,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 0.740000000000002,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.55,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -10.290000000000006,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -22.58064516129032,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 60,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 59,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.24790322580645163,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.135,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -8.333333333333332,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}