Alexander Shevchenko vs Raphael Collignon
Brisbane | Hard | Qualification Round 1
03 Ene 2026, 04:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Raphael Collignon
Alexander …: 26,5% Raphael …: 73,5%
¿Por qué Raphael Collignon?
UTR 14,73 vs 14,93 (-0,17) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Alexander … Raphael … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,38 1,53 42,1%
Gamdom 2,50 1,46 40,0%
IA Fair Odds 3,77 1,36 26,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Alexander …: -12,7% Raphael …: +12,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Alexander Shevchenko
Ranking #97
UTR Rating 14,73 Pro
UTR Ranking #123
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 8/23 = 34,8%
Raphael Collignon
Ranking #72
UTR Rating 14,93 Pro
UTR Ranking #96
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 21/32 = 65,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -12,0000
rank_ratio 0,8763
log_rank_ratio -0,1321
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -52,0000
best_rank_diff 28,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -30,8424
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -23,7191
surface_matches_ratio 0,7188
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 34,7826
surface_wr_p2 65,6250
surface_wr_p1_stable 37,0370
surface_wr_p2_stable 63,8889
p1_surface_matches 23,0000
p2_surface_matches 32,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7667
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -5,3122
first_serve_won_diff -4,4215
second_serve_won_diff -7,0774
bp_saved_diff -2,7609
bp_converted_diff -12,2179
aces_per_match_diff -0,4891
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 8,0000
momentum_p2 58,0000
momentum_diff -50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -36,1640
current_streak_diff -2,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 62,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 62,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,3818
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,9123
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4286
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8000
serve_consistency_p1 12,5850
serve_consistency_p2 4,3433
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 4,0730
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1402
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1443
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,1700
utr_p1 0,7882
utr_p2 0,8082
utr_advantage -1,1498
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21026
API ID 15306523
Gamdom ID 567425
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21026,
    "api_id": 15306523,
    "gamdom_id": 567425,
    "player1": "Alexander Shevchenko",
    "player2": "Raphael Collignon",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.375,
      "p2": 1.5333333333333332
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.5,
      "p2": 1.46
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.84,
      "p2": 1.41
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2652,
    "prob_p2": 0.7348,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7348,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 97,
      "utr_singles": 14.73,
      "utr_ranking": 123,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 34.78260869565217,
      "wr_surface_wins": 8,
      "wr_surface_total": 23,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 72,
      "utr_singles": 14.93,
      "utr_ranking": 96,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.625,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.73,
      "ranking": 123,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.93,
      "ranking": 96,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.7882352941176469,
    "utr_p2": 0.8082352941176469,
    "utr_diff": -0.16999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8762886597938144,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 8.0,
    "momentum_p2": 57.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -52,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.7608695652173907,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -49.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7666666666666666,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 34.78260869565217,
    "surface_wr_p2": 65.625,
    "utr_advantage": -1.1498140006763609,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 28,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.13205972201306637,
    "rank_advantage": -12,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -30.842391304347828,
    "bp_converted_diff": -12.217934782608701,
    "p1_surface_matches": 23,
    "p2_surface_matches": 32,
    "serve_quality_diff": -5.312228260869567,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.38181818181818183,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.9122807017543859,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.4891304347826084,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8833333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": -2,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -4.421467391304347,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 12.584986445744825,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.3432613525249595,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 4.07303762187039,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 37.03703703703704,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 63.888888888888886,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -7.077445652173921,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.71875,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -36.16400000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 62,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 62,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.14017391304347826,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.14425,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -23.719135802469133,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}