Matteo Arnaldi vs Hugo Gaston
Brisbane | Hard | Qualification Round 1
03 Ene 2026, 11:05
03 Ene 2026, 11:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo …: 52,5%
Hugo …: 47,5%
¿Por qué Matteo Arnaldi?
UTR 15,16 vs 14,71
(+0,70)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Matteo … | Hugo … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,50 | 2,50 | 66,7% |
| Gamdom | 1,49 | 2,44 | 67,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,90 | 2,11 | 52,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Matteo …: -10,0%
Hugo …: +10,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Matteo Arnaldi
Ranking
#65
UTR Rating
15,16 Pro
UTR Ranking
#70
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
16/33 = 48,5%
Hugo Gaston
Ranking
#93
UTR Rating
14,71 Pro
UTR Ranking
#125
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
24/39 = 61,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 35,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 1,5738 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 0,4535 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | 220,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 28,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -13,0536 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -11,8165 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,8462 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 48,4848 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 61,5385 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 48,6486 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 60,4651 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 39,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,0303 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 4,5092 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,6233 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,1347 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 5,1042 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -5,8937 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 2,6807 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -30,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -22,4200 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 69,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 58,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,5714 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1471 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,7143 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,8333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 6,7689 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 7,6812 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -5,9195 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0502 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1504 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,7000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8647 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,7824 | |
| utr_advantage | 4,6667 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21030
API ID
15306522
Gamdom ID
567428
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Round 1
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21030,
"api_id": 15306522,
"gamdom_id": 567428,
"player1": "Matteo Arnaldi",
"player2": "Hugo Gaston",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Round 1",
"date": "2026-01-03T07:05:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.5,
"p2": 2.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.49,
"p2": 2.44
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.51,
"p2": 2.51
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5251,
"prob_p2": 0.4749,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5251,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 65,
"utr_singles": 15.16,
"utr_ranking": 70,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
"wr_surface_wins": 16,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 93,
"utr_singles": 14.71,
"utr_ranking": 125,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
"wr_surface_wins": 24,
"wr_surface_total": 39,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 70,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 14.71,
"ranking": 125,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.7823529411764706,
"utr_diff": 0.6999999999999993,
"rank_ratio": 1.5737704918032787,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": 220,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 5.104195804195797,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -29.999999999999996,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 48.484848484848484,
"surface_wr_p2": 61.53846153846154,
"utr_advantage": 4.666666666666662,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": 28,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 0.45347432729452497,
"rank_advantage": 35,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -13.053613053613056,
"bp_converted_diff": -5.893706293706295,
"p1_surface_matches": 33,
"p2_surface_matches": 39,
"serve_quality_diff": 4.509230769230776,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5714285714285714,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1470588235294117,
"aces_per_match_diff": 2.6806526806526807,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.623310023310026,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.030303030303030304,
"serve_consistency_p1": 6.768896021415363,
"serve_consistency_p2": 7.6811554462784075,
"surface_rank_synergy": -5.91947839825021,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.64864864864865,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.46511627906976,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.13473193473193845,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -22.42,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 69,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 58,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.05015151515151506,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15038461538461534,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -11.816467630421108,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}