Matteo Arnaldi vs Hugo Gaston
Brisbane | Hard | Qualification Round 1
03 Ene 2026, 11:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo …: 52,5% Hugo …: 47,5%
¿Por qué Matteo Arnaldi?
UTR 15,16 vs 14,71 (+0,70) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Matteo … Hugo … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,50 2,50 66,7%
Gamdom 1,49 2,44 67,1%
IA Fair Odds 1,90 2,11 52,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Matteo …: -10,0% Hugo …: +10,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Matteo Arnaldi
Ranking #65
UTR Rating 15,16 Pro
UTR Ranking #70
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 16/33 = 48,5%
Hugo Gaston
Ranking #93
UTR Rating 14,71 Pro
UTR Ranking #125
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 24/39 = 61,5%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 35,0000
rank_ratio 1,5738
log_rank_ratio 0,4535
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 220,0000
best_rank_diff 28,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -13,0536
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -11,8165
surface_matches_ratio 0,8462
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 48,4848
surface_wr_p2 61,5385
surface_wr_p1_stable 48,6486
surface_wr_p2_stable 60,4651
p1_surface_matches 33,0000
p2_surface_matches 39,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,0303
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 4,5092
first_serve_won_diff -1,6233
second_serve_won_diff -0,1347
bp_saved_diff 5,1042
bp_converted_diff -5,8937
aces_per_match_diff 2,6807
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -30,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -22,4200
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 69,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 58,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,5714
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1471
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,7143
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,8333
serve_consistency_p1 6,7689
serve_consistency_p2 7,6812
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -5,9195
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0502
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1504
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,7000
utr_p1 0,8647
utr_p2 0,7824
utr_advantage 4,6667
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21030
API ID 15306522
Gamdom ID 567428
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Round 1
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21030,
    "api_id": 15306522,
    "gamdom_id": 567428,
    "player1": "Matteo Arnaldi",
    "player2": "Hugo Gaston",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Round 1",
    "date": "2026-01-03T07:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.5,
      "p2": 2.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.49,
      "p2": 2.44
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.51,
      "p2": 2.51
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5251,
    "prob_p2": 0.4749,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5251,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 65,
      "utr_singles": 15.16,
      "utr_ranking": 70,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 48.484848484848484,
      "wr_surface_wins": 16,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 93,
      "utr_singles": 14.71,
      "utr_ranking": 125,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 61.53846153846154,
      "wr_surface_wins": 24,
      "wr_surface_total": 39,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.16,
      "ranking": 70,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 14.71,
      "ranking": 125,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8647058823529411,
    "utr_p2": 0.7823529411764706,
    "utr_diff": 0.6999999999999993,
    "rank_ratio": 1.5737704918032787,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 30.000000000000004,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": 220,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 5.104195804195797,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.20000000000000007,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -29.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 48.484848484848484,
    "surface_wr_p2": 61.53846153846154,
    "utr_advantage": 4.666666666666662,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 28,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.45347432729452497,
    "rank_advantage": 35,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.7142857142857143,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.8333333333333334,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -13.053613053613056,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.893706293706295,
    "p1_surface_matches": 33,
    "p2_surface_matches": 39,
    "serve_quality_diff": 4.509230769230776,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.5714285714285714,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1470588235294117,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 2.6806526806526807,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.623310023310026,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.030303030303030304,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.768896021415363,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 7.6811554462784075,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -5.91947839825021,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 48.64864864864865,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 60.46511627906976,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.13473193473193845,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -22.42,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 69,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 58,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.05015151515151506,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.15038461538461534,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -11.816467630421108,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}