Jakub Mensik vs Casper Ruud
United Cup | Hard |
05 Ene 2026, 05:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Casper Ruud
Jakub …: 39,0% Casper …: 61,0%
¿Por qué Casper Ruud?
UTR 15,40 vs 15,57 (-0,35) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jakub … Casper … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,30 1,62 43,5%
Gamdom 2,30 1,63 43,5%
IA Fair Odds 2,57 1,64 39,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Jakub …: -2,3% Casper …: +2,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jakub Mensik
Ranking #17
UTR Rating 15,40 Pro
UTR Ranking #37
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 20/32 = 62,5%
Casper Ruud
Ranking #13
UTR Rating 15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #22
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 22/33 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -7,0000
rank_ratio 0,6316
log_rank_ratio -0,4595
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -675,0000
best_rank_diff -14,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -4,1667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -3,7538
surface_matches_ratio 0,9697
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 62,5000
surface_wr_p2 66,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 61,1111
surface_wr_p2_stable 64,8649
p1_surface_matches 32,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2500
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 15,9274
first_serve_won_diff 4,9898
second_serve_won_diff -3,2932
bp_saved_diff -0,1826
bp_converted_diff -10,9864
aces_per_match_diff 7,2102
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,0000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 50,0000
momentum_p2 30,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 13,0650
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 76,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 67,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 1,0000
h2h_on_surface 1,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 1,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,2000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,1710
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0465
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6190
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5714
serve_consistency_p1 3,5529
serve_consistency_p2 8,2089
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 1,9147
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1320
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1597
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,3500
utr_p1 0,8871
utr_p2 0,9282
utr_advantage -2,2272
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21153
API ID 15141986
Gamdom ID 479630
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21153,
    "api_id": 15141986,
    "gamdom_id": 479630,
    "player1": "Jakub Mensik",
    "player2": "Casper Ruud",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-05T01:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.6153846153846154
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.3,
      "p2": 1.63
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.31,
      "p2": 1.6
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3897,
    "prob_p2": 0.6103,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6103,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 17,
      "utr_singles": 15.4,
      "utr_ranking": 37,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 62.5,
      "wr_surface_wins": 20,
      "wr_surface_total": 32,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 13,
      "utr_singles": 15.57,
      "utr_ranking": 22,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
      "wr_surface_wins": 22,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.4,
      "ranking": 37,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.57,
      "ranking": 22,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8870588235294117,
    "utr_p2": 0.9282352941176472,
    "utr_diff": -0.3500000000000014,
    "rank_ratio": 0.631578947368421,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 50.0,
    "momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
    "points_diff": -675,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -0.18257575757576205,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 1,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 19.999999999999996,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
    "surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
    "utr_advantage": -2.2271714922049086,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -14,
    "h2h_on_surface": 1,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.4595323293784402,
    "rank_advantage": -7,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6190476190476191,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -4.166666666666657,
    "bp_converted_diff": -10.986363636363631,
    "p1_surface_matches": 32,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": 15.927386363636359,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1709844559585492,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0465116279069768,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 7.2102272727272725,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 4.989772727272722,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 3.5529482973659303,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 8.208941228388941,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 1.9147180390768297,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.111111111111114,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.86486486486487,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.2931818181818144,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.9696969696969697,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 13.065000000000005,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 76,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 67,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.132,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1596666666666665,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.753753753753756,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 1,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}