Jakub Mensik vs Casper Ruud
United Cup | Hard |
05 Ene 2026, 05:35
05 Ene 2026, 05:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Casper Ruud
Jakub …: 39,0%
Casper …: 61,0%
¿Por qué Casper Ruud?
UTR 15,40 vs 15,57
(-0,35)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jakub … | Casper … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,30 | 1,62 | 43,5% |
| Gamdom | 2,30 | 1,63 | 43,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,57 | 1,64 | 39,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jakub …: -2,3%
Casper …: +2,3%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jakub Mensik
Ranking
#17
UTR Rating
15,40 Pro
UTR Ranking
#37
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
20/32 = 62,5%
Casper Ruud
Ranking
#13
UTR Rating
15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#22
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
22/33 = 66,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -7,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,6316 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,4595 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -675,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -14,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -4,1667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -3,7538 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,9697 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 62,5000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 66,6667 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 61,1111 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 64,8649 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 32,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2500 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 15,9274 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 4,9898 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,2932 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -0,1826 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -10,9864 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 7,2102 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 13,0650 | |
| current_streak_diff | 3,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 76,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 67,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,2000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,1710 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0465 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6190 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5714 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 3,5529 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 8,2089 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 1,9147 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1320 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1597 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,3500 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8871 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9282 | |
| utr_advantage | -2,2272 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21153
API ID
15141986
Gamdom ID
479630
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21153,
"api_id": 15141986,
"gamdom_id": 479630,
"player1": "Jakub Mensik",
"player2": "Casper Ruud",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-05T01:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.6153846153846154
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.3,
"p2": 1.63
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.31,
"p2": 1.6
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3897,
"prob_p2": 0.6103,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6103,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 17,
"utr_singles": 15.4,
"utr_ranking": 37,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 62.5,
"wr_surface_wins": 20,
"wr_surface_total": 32,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 13,
"utr_singles": 15.57,
"utr_ranking": 22,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 66.66666666666666,
"wr_surface_wins": 22,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.4,
"ranking": 37,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.57,
"ranking": 22,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.8870588235294117,
"utr_p2": 0.9282352941176472,
"utr_diff": -0.3500000000000014,
"rank_ratio": 0.631578947368421,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 50.0,
"momentum_p2": 30.000000000000004,
"points_diff": -675,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -0.18257575757576205,
"h2h_wins_diff": 1,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.0,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 19.999999999999996,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 62.5,
"surface_wr_p2": 66.66666666666666,
"utr_advantage": -2.2271714922049086,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -14,
"h2h_on_surface": 1,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.4595323293784402,
"rank_advantage": -7,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6190476190476191,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5714285714285714,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 1.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -4.166666666666657,
"bp_converted_diff": -10.986363636363631,
"p1_surface_matches": 32,
"p2_surface_matches": 33,
"serve_quality_diff": 15.927386363636359,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.1709844559585492,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0465116279069768,
"aces_per_match_diff": 7.2102272727272725,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 3,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 4.989772727272722,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.2,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 1.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.25,
"serve_consistency_p1": 3.5529482973659303,
"serve_consistency_p2": 8.208941228388941,
"surface_rank_synergy": 1.9147180390768297,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 61.111111111111114,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 64.86486486486487,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.2931818181818144,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.9696969696969697,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 13.065000000000005,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 76,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 67,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.132,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.1596666666666665,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -3.753753753753756,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0,
"h2h_wins_p1": 1,
"h2h_wins_p2": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}