Eva Lys vs Iga Swiatek
United Cup | Hard |
05 Ene 2026, 12:10
05 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Eva …: 27,3%
Iga …: 72,7%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,41 vs 12,90
(-0,51)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Eva … | Iga … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 9,00 | 1,07 | 11,1% |
| Gamdom | 12,00 | 1,04 | 8,3% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,66 | 1,38 | 27,3% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Eva …: +16,7%
Iga …: -16,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Eva Lys
Ranking
#39
UTR Rating
12,41 Pro
UTR Ranking
#32
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
25/41 = 61,0%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking
#2
UTR Rating
12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking
#3
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -38,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,0500 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -2,9957 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -2,0000 | |
| points_diff | -7104,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -39,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -17,8705 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -16,7857 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,7885 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -2,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,9756 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 78,8462 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 76,7857 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 41,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 52,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2195 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -8,8025 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -7,9076 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -3,6577 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -2,6481 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -2,7505 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -1,8757 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 18,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -3,4700 | |
| current_streak_diff | 1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 67,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -2,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 2,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7872 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,0586 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,2500 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5455 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 11,0353 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 16,3540 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 53,5354 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1478 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2505 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5100 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,5188 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,5788 | |
| utr_advantage | -4,0268 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21157
API ID
15141985
Gamdom ID
479633
Torneo
United Cup
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21157,
"api_id": 15141985,
"gamdom_id": 479633,
"player1": "Eva Lys",
"player2": "Iga Swiatek",
"tournament": "United Cup",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "",
"date": "2026-01-05T08:10:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 9.0,
"p2": 1.0714285714285714
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 12.0,
"p2": 1.04
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 12.1,
"p2": 1.04
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.2729,
"prob_p2": 0.7271,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.7271,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 39,
"utr_singles": 12.41,
"utr_ranking": 32,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.97560975609756,
"wr_surface_wins": 25,
"wr_surface_total": 41,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 2,
"utr_singles": 12.9,
"utr_ranking": 3,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
"wr_surface_wins": 41,
"wr_surface_total": 52,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 12.41,
"ranking": 32,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.9,
"ranking": 3,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.5788235294117647,
"utr_diff": -0.5099999999999998,
"rank_ratio": 0.05,
"h2h_matches": 2,
"momentum_p1": 40.0,
"momentum_p2": 22.0,
"points_diff": -7104,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -2.648076923076914,
"h2h_wins_diff": -2,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 18.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.97560975609756,
"surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
"utr_advantage": -4.026845637583891,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -39,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -2.995732273553991,
"rank_advantage": -38,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -17.870544090056278,
"bp_converted_diff": -2.7505159474671643,
"p1_surface_matches": 41,
"p2_surface_matches": 52,
"serve_quality_diff": -8.802537523452159,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7872340425531915,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
"aces_per_match_diff": -1.8757035647279552,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": 1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -2,
"first_serve_won_diff": -7.90764540337711,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.21951219512195122,
"serve_consistency_p1": 11.035273330961768,
"serve_consistency_p2": 16.354026975878845,
"surface_rank_synergy": 53.53536567655113,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
"second_serve_won_diff": -3.657692307692315,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.7884615384615384,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -3.469999999999999,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 67,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 60,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14775609756097563,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2504615384615384,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.785714285714292,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 2
},
"feature_importance": {}
}