Eva Lys vs Iga Swiatek
United Cup | Hard |
05 Ene 2026, 12:10
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Iga Swiatek
Eva …: 27,3% Iga …: 72,7%
¿Por qué Iga Swiatek?
UTR 12,41 vs 12,90 (-0,51) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Eva … Iga … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 9,00 1,07 11,1%
Gamdom 12,00 1,04 8,3%
IA Fair Odds 3,66 1,38 27,3%
Edge vs Mercado: Eva …: +16,7% Iga …: -16,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Eva Lys
Ranking #39
UTR Rating 12,41 Pro
UTR Ranking #32
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 25/41 = 61,0%
Iga Swiatek
Ranking #2
UTR Rating 12,90 Pro
UTR Ranking #3
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 41/52 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -38,0000
rank_ratio 0,0500
log_rank_ratio -2,9957
rank_tier_advantage -2,0000
points_diff -7104,0000
best_rank_diff -39,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -17,8705
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -16,7857
surface_matches_ratio 0,7885
surface_tournaments_won_diff -2,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,9756
surface_wr_p2 78,8462
surface_wr_p1_stable 60,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 76,7857
p1_surface_matches 41,0000
p2_surface_matches 52,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2195
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -8,8025
first_serve_won_diff -7,9076
second_serve_won_diff -3,6577
bp_saved_diff -2,6481
bp_converted_diff -2,7505
aces_per_match_diff -1,8757
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 40,0000
momentum_p2 22,0000
momentum_diff 18,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -3,4700
current_streak_diff 1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 67,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 60,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -2,0000
h2h_matches 2,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7872
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,0586
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,2500
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5455
serve_consistency_p1 11,0353
serve_consistency_p2 16,3540
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 53,5354
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1478
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2505
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5100
utr_p1 0,5188
utr_p2 0,5788
utr_advantage -4,0268
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21157
API ID 15141985
Gamdom ID 479633
Torneo United Cup
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21157,
    "api_id": 15141985,
    "gamdom_id": 479633,
    "player1": "Eva Lys",
    "player2": "Iga Swiatek",
    "tournament": "United Cup",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-05T08:10:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 9.0,
      "p2": 1.0714285714285714
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 12.0,
      "p2": 1.04
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 12.1,
      "p2": 1.04
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2729,
    "prob_p2": 0.7271,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7271,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 39,
      "utr_singles": 12.41,
      "utr_ranking": 32,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.97560975609756,
      "wr_surface_wins": 25,
      "wr_surface_total": 41,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 2,
      "utr_singles": 12.9,
      "utr_ranking": 3,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.84615384615384,
      "wr_surface_wins": 41,
      "wr_surface_total": 52,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 12.41,
      "ranking": 32,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.9,
      "ranking": 3,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.5188235294117647,
    "utr_p2": 0.5788235294117647,
    "utr_diff": -0.5099999999999998,
    "rank_ratio": 0.05,
    "h2h_matches": 2,
    "momentum_p1": 40.0,
    "momentum_p2": 22.0,
    "points_diff": -7104,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -2.648076923076914,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -2,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 18.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.97560975609756,
    "surface_wr_p2": 78.84615384615384,
    "utr_advantage": -4.026845637583891,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -39,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -2.995732273553991,
    "rank_advantage": -38,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.25,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5454545454545454,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -17.870544090056278,
    "bp_converted_diff": -2.7505159474671643,
    "p1_surface_matches": 41,
    "p2_surface_matches": 52,
    "serve_quality_diff": -8.802537523452159,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7872340425531915,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.0585585585585586,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -1.8757035647279552,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": 1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -7.90764540337711,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.21951219512195122,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 11.035273330961768,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 16.354026975878845,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 53.53536567655113,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 76.78571428571429,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -3.657692307692315,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.7884615384615384,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -3.469999999999999,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 67,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 60,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.14775609756097563,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2504615384615384,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.785714285714292,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -2,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 2
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}