Dimitri Bagaric vs Luca Connaughton
UTR PTT Wagga Wagga Men 01 | Hard |
08 Ene 2026, 00:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Luca Connaughton
Dimitri …: 26,0% Luca …: 74,0%
¿Por qué Luca Connaughton?
UTR 11,00 vs 12,00 (-1,00) — Ligera ventaja
Dimitri …
W10-L4
71% WR
vs UTR 10,6
W1
Luca …
W40-L34
54% WR
vs UTR 11,0
W2
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (30%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Dimitri … Luca … Prob Impl. P1
IA Fair Odds 3,84 1,35 26,0%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Dimitri Bagaric
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 11,00 Junior
UTR Ranking #1031
Forma L5 0% (5p)
Forma L10 10% (10p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Luca Connaughton
Ranking #-
UTR Rating 12,00 General
UTR Ranking #3468
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 71% (7p)
WR Hard 0/0 = 0,0%
Momentum & Forma UTR
Dimitri Bagaric
Record 2025 10W - 4L (71%)
Racha 1W
UTR Oponentes 10,6
Últimos 5:
W L W W W
Luca Connaughton
Record 2025 40W - 34L (54%)
Racha 2W
UTR Oponentes 11,0
Últimos 5:
W W L W W
Análisis Momentum
Luca Connaughton ha enfrentado oponentes más fuertes (UTR 11,0 vs 10,6).
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 0,0000
rank_ratio 1,0000
log_rank_ratio 0,0000
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff 0,0000
best_rank_diff 0,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,0000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 0,0000
surface_wr_p2 0,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 0,0000
p2_surface_matches 0,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3000
p2_confidence 0,3000
combined_confidence 0,3000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 0,0000
first_serve_won_diff 0,0000
second_serve_won_diff 0,0000
bp_saved_diff 0,0000
bp_converted_diff 0,0000
aces_per_match_diff 0,0000
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 0,0000
momentum_p2 40,0000
momentum_diff -40,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -30,0000
current_streak_diff -4,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 16,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 16,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0000
serve_consistency_p1 7,5338
serve_consistency_p2 6,9791
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,5000
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,5000
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -1,0000
utr_p1 0,3529
utr_p2 0,4706
utr_advantage -8,6957
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21247
API ID 15306664
Gamdom ID -
Torneo UTR PTT Wagga Wagga Men 01
Superficie Hard
Ronda
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21247,
    "api_id": 15306664,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Dimitri Bagaric",
    "player2": "Luca Connaughton",
    "tournament": "UTR PTT Wagga Wagga Men 01",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "",
    "date": "2026-01-07T20:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.2601,
    "prob_p2": 0.7399,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.7399,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 11.0,
      "utr_ranking": 1031,
      "utr_division": "Junior",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 10,
      "utr_v4_losses": 4,
      "utr_v4_wr": 71.42857142857143,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 1,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 10.56,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Corey GAAL"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 12.0,
          "opponent_name": "Vincent Stouff"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Keizo Yoshii"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Liam Kindler"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 10.0,
          "opponent_name": "Jack Bassett"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:56:02.706445+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 0.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 10.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": null,
      "utr_singles": 12.0,
      "utr_ranking": 3468,
      "utr_division": "General",
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_wins": 40,
      "utr_v4_losses": 34,
      "utr_v4_wr": 54.054054054054056,
      "utr_v4_win_streak": 2,
      "utr_v4_lose_streak": 0,
      "utr_v4_avg_opp_utr": 11.04,
      "utr_v4_recent": [
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Ethan DOMINGO"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Evan VASILIADIS"
        },
        {
          "win": false,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Aryan KARNANI"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Sehun PARK"
        },
        {
          "win": true,
          "opponent_utr": 11.0,
          "opponent_name": "Heaton PANN"
        }
      ],
      "utr_v4_synced": "2025-12-07T19:57:24.221248+00:00",
      "utr_v4_available": true,
      "wr_surface": 0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 0,
      "wr_surface_total": 0,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 71.42857142857143,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 7
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.0,
      "ranking": 1031,
      "division": "Junior",
      "is_pro": false
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.0,
      "ranking": 3468,
      "division": "General",
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.35294117647058826,
    "utr_p2": 0.47058823529411764,
    "utr_diff": -1.0,
    "rank_ratio": 1.0,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 0.0,
    "momentum_p2": 40.0,
    "points_diff": 0,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -40.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.3,
    "p2_confidence": 0.3,
    "surface_wr_p1": 0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 0,
    "utr_advantage": -8.695652173913043,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 0,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 0.0,
    "rank_advantage": 0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.0,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0,
    "bp_converted_diff": 0,
    "p1_surface_matches": 0,
    "p2_surface_matches": 0,
    "serve_quality_diff": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.0,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3,
    "current_streak_diff": -4,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.53383796062115,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.979124658496478,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 0,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.0,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -30.0,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 16,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 16,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.5,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.5,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}