Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Learner Tien
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
04 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Learner Tien
Camilo …: 19,2% Learner …: 80,8%
¿Por qué Learner Tien?
UTR 14,77 vs 15,57 (-0,88) — Niveles similares
Alta confianza | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Camilo … Learner … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 6,00 1,13 16,7%
Gamdom 5,40 1,16 18,5%
IA Fair Odds 5,20 1,24 19,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Camilo …: +3,4% Learner …: -3,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ranking #49
UTR Rating 14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking #117
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 20% (10p)
WR Hard 6/18 = 33,3%
Learner Tien
Ranking #29
UTR Rating 15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking #24
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 90% (10p)
WR Hard 35/50 = 70,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -21,0000
rank_ratio 0,5714
log_rank_ratio -0,5596
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -512,0000
best_rank_diff -15,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -36,6667
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -25,7239
surface_matches_ratio 0,3600
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 33,3333
surface_wr_p2 70,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 36,3636
surface_wr_p2_stable 68,5185
p1_surface_matches 18,0000
p2_surface_matches 50,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,3333
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff -3,7610
first_serve_won_diff -1,5473
second_serve_won_diff -6,8911
bp_saved_diff 0,9573
bp_converted_diff 8,0447
aces_per_match_diff -0,4600
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,6000
last3_wr_diff -0,6667
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 98,0000
momentum_diff -68,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -39,8640
current_streak_diff -5,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 66,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 13,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff -1,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff -1,0000
h2h_matches 1,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,0000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,0000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,7000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,6667
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,1429
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,6429
serve_consistency_p1 9,1986
serve_consistency_p2 6,8380
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 20,5192
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,1457
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,1790
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,8800
utr_p1 0,8118
utr_p2 0,9153
utr_advantage -5,7366
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21300
API ID 15309596
Gamdom ID 569126
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21300,
    "api_id": 15309596,
    "gamdom_id": 569126,
    "player1": "Camilo Ugo Carabelli",
    "player2": "Learner Tien",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-04T08:30:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 6.0,
      "p2": 1.13
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 5.4,
      "p2": 1.16
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 5.19,
      "p2": 1.15
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.1922,
    "prob_p2": 0.8078,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.8078,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 49,
      "utr_singles": 14.77,
      "utr_ranking": 117,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
      "wr_surface_wins": 6,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 29,
      "utr_singles": 15.57,
      "utr_ranking": 24,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 70.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 35,
      "wr_surface_total": 50,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 90.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
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      "score": 14.77,
      "ranking": 117,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.57,
      "ranking": 24,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.9152941176470587,
    "utr_diff": -0.879999999999999,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
    "h2h_matches": 1,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
    "points_diff": -512,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 0.957333333333338,
    "h2h_wins_diff": -1,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -67.99999999999999,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
    "surface_wr_p2": 70.0,
    "utr_advantage": -5.736636245110815,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -15,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5596157879354228,
    "rank_advantage": -21,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.14285714285714285,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
    "match_load_diff": -1,
    "surface_wr_diff": -36.66666666666667,
    "bp_converted_diff": 8.044666666666672,
    "p1_surface_matches": 18,
    "p2_surface_matches": 50,
    "serve_quality_diff": -3.761000000000003,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
    "aces_per_match_diff": -0.45999999999999996,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8,
    "current_streak_diff": -5,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": -1.5473333333333272,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 9.198645357910738,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.83797607907063,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 20.51924555763217,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 36.36363636363637,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 68.51851851851852,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -6.891111111111115,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.36,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -39.864,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 66,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 13,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.14566666666666672,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17899999999999994,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -25.723905723905723,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
    "h2h_wins_p1": 0,
    "h2h_wins_p2": 1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}