Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Learner Tien
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
04 Ene 2026, 12:30
04 Ene 2026, 12:30
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Learner Tien
Camilo …: 19,2%
Learner …: 80,8%
¿Por qué Learner Tien?
UTR 14,77 vs 15,57
(-0,88)
— Niveles similares
Alta confianza
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Camilo … | Learner … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 6,00 | 1,13 | 16,7% |
| Gamdom | 5,40 | 1,16 | 18,5% |
| IA Fair Odds | 5,20 | 1,24 | 19,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Camilo …: +3,4%
Learner …: -3,4%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Ranking
#49
UTR Rating
14,77 Pro
UTR Ranking
#117
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
20% (10p)
WR Hard
6/18 = 33,3%
Learner Tien
Ranking
#29
UTR Rating
15,57 Pro
UTR Ranking
#24
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
90% (10p)
WR Hard
35/50 = 70,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -21,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5714 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5596 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -512,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -15,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -36,6667 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -25,7239 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,3600 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 33,3333 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 70,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 36,3636 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 68,5185 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 18,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,3333 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,6000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | -3,7610 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | -1,5473 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -6,8911 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 0,9573 | |
| bp_converted_diff | 8,0447 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | -0,4600 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,6000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,6667 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 98,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -68,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -39,8640 | |
| current_streak_diff | -5,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 66,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 13,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | -1,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | -1,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 1,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,7000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,6667 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,1429 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,6429 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 9,1986 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,8380 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 20,5192 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,1457 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,1790 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,8800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8118 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9153 | |
| utr_advantage | -5,7366 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21300
API ID
15309596
Gamdom ID
569126
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21300,
"api_id": 15309596,
"gamdom_id": 569126,
"player1": "Camilo Ugo Carabelli",
"player2": "Learner Tien",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-04T08:30:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 6.0,
"p2": 1.13
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 5.4,
"p2": 1.16
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 5.19,
"p2": 1.15
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.1922,
"prob_p2": 0.8078,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.8078,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 49,
"utr_singles": 14.77,
"utr_ranking": 117,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 33.33333333333333,
"wr_surface_wins": 6,
"wr_surface_total": 18,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 20.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 29,
"utr_singles": 15.57,
"utr_ranking": 24,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 70.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 35,
"wr_surface_total": 50,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 90.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
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"ranking": 117,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 15.57,
"ranking": 24,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9152941176470587,
"utr_diff": -0.879999999999999,
"rank_ratio": 0.5714285714285714,
"h2h_matches": 1,
"momentum_p1": 30.0,
"momentum_p2": 97.99999999999999,
"points_diff": -512,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 0.957333333333338,
"h2h_wins_diff": -1,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.6666666666666667,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.6000000000000001,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -67.99999999999999,
"p1_confidence": 0.6,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 33.33333333333333,
"surface_wr_p2": 70.0,
"utr_advantage": -5.736636245110815,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -15,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5596157879354228,
"rank_advantage": -21,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.14285714285714285,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.6428571428571429,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.0,
"match_load_diff": -1,
"surface_wr_diff": -36.66666666666667,
"bp_converted_diff": 8.044666666666672,
"p1_surface_matches": 18,
"p2_surface_matches": 50,
"serve_quality_diff": -3.761000000000003,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.7,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.6666666666666666,
"aces_per_match_diff": -0.45999999999999996,
"combined_confidence": 0.8,
"current_streak_diff": -5,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": -1.5473333333333272,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.0,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.3333333333333333,
"serve_consistency_p1": 9.198645357910738,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.83797607907063,
"surface_rank_synergy": 20.51924555763217,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 36.36363636363637,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 68.51851851851852,
"second_serve_won_diff": -6.891111111111115,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.36,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -39.864,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 66,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 13,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.14566666666666672,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.17899999999999994,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -25.723905723905723,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1,
"h2h_wins_p1": 0,
"h2h_wins_p2": 1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}