Daniil Medvedev vs Marton Fucsovics
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
05 Ene 2026, 12:40
05 Ene 2026, 12:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 51,2%
Marton …: 48,8%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Daniil … | Marton … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 1,30 | 3,50 | 76,9% |
| Gamdom | 1,27 | 3,75 | 78,7% |
| IA Fair Odds | 1,95 | 2,05 | 51,2% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Daniil …: -21,7%
Marton …: +21,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking
#12
UTR Rating
15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking
#8
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
70% (10p)
WR Hard
30/46 = 65,2%
Marton Fucsovics
Ranking
#54
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
21/29 = 72,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | 42,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 4,2308 | |
| log_rank_ratio | 1,4424 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 2,0000 | |
| points_diff | 1754,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 30,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -7,1964 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -5,6020 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,5862 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -1,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 65,2174 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 72,4138 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 64,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 69,6970 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 46,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 29,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,3043 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,9667 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,9833 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 14,7544 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 7,9198 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -2,3393 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 6,6226 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -3,5526 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 5,7481 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | 0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 52,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | 20,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 24,0500 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 64,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 79,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,8483 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,3158 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5238 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3333 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 7,8702 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 4,0623 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | -10,3800 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1102 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2661 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | -14,3928 |
UTR
| utr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,9341 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9341 | |
| utr_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| utr_both_pro | 0,0000 | |
| utr_available | 0,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21301
API ID
15309595
Gamdom ID
569121
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21301,
"api_id": 15309595,
"gamdom_id": 569121,
"player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
"player2": "Marton Fucsovics",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-05T08:40:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 1.3,
"p2": 3.5
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 1.27,
"p2": 3.75
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 1.27,
"p2": 3.72
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.5117,
"prob_p2": 0.4883,
"winner": 1,
"confidence": 0.5117,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 12,
"utr_singles": 15.81,
"utr_ranking": 8,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
"wr_surface_wins": 30,
"wr_surface_total": 46,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 70.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 54,
"utr_singles": null,
"utr_ranking": null,
"utr_division": null,
"utr_pro": false,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 72.41379310344827,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 29,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 15.81,
"ranking": 8,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": null,
"ranking": null,
"division": null,
"is_pro": false
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9341176470588235,
"utr_diff": 0.0,
"rank_ratio": 4.230769230769231,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 52.0,
"momentum_p2": 32.0,
"points_diff": 1754,
"utr_both_pro": 0.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 6.622638680659669,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": 20.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
"surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
"surface_wr_p2": 72.41379310344827,
"utr_advantage": 0.0,
"utr_available": 0.0,
"best_rank_diff": 30,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": 1.4423838277709342,
"rank_advantage": 42,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -7.1964017991004425,
"bp_converted_diff": -3.5526236881559257,
"p1_surface_matches": 46,
"p2_surface_matches": 29,
"serve_quality_diff": 14.754362818590693,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.3157894736842105,
"aces_per_match_diff": 5.748125937031484,
"combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 2,
"first_serve_won_diff": 7.9197901049475234,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
"serve_consistency_p1": 7.870237805666519,
"serve_consistency_p2": 4.062268295065142,
"surface_rank_synergy": -10.379973573164134,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.6969696969697,
"second_serve_won_diff": -2.339280359820094,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.5862068965517242,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 24.049999999999997,
"elite_surface_amplifier": -14.392803598200885,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 64,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 79,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11017391304347823,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2661379310344827,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.602020202020208,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
},
"feature_importance": {}
}