Daniil Medvedev vs Marton Fucsovics
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
05 Ene 2026, 12:40
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil …: 51,2% Marton …: 48,8%
¿Por qué Daniil Medvedev?
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Daniil … Marton … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,30 3,50 76,9%
Gamdom 1,27 3,75 78,7%
IA Fair Odds 1,95 2,05 51,2%
Edge vs Mercado: Daniil …: -21,7% Marton …: +21,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Daniil Medvedev
Ranking #12
UTR Rating 15,81 Pro
UTR Ranking #8
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 70% (10p)
WR Hard 30/46 = 65,2%
Marton Fucsovics
Ranking #54
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 21/29 = 72,4%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage 42,0000
rank_ratio 4,2308
log_rank_ratio 1,4424
rank_tier_advantage 2,0000
points_diff 1754,0000
best_rank_diff 30,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -7,1964
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,6020
surface_matches_ratio 1,5862
surface_tournaments_won_diff -1,0000
surface_wr_p1 65,2174
surface_wr_p2 72,4138
surface_wr_p1_stable 64,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 69,6970
p1_surface_matches 46,0000
p2_surface_matches 29,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,3043
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 0,9667
combined_confidence 0,9833
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 14,7544
first_serve_won_diff 7,9198
second_serve_won_diff -2,3393
bp_saved_diff 6,6226
bp_converted_diff -3,5526
aces_per_match_diff 5,7481
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,3333
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 32,0000
momentum_diff 20,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 24,0500
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 64,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 79,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,8483
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3158
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5238
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3333
serve_consistency_p1 7,8702
serve_consistency_p2 4,0623
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -10,3800
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1102
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2661
elite_surface_amplifier -14,3928
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,9341
utr_p2 0,9341
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21301
API ID 15309595
Gamdom ID 569121
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21301,
    "api_id": 15309595,
    "gamdom_id": 569121,
    "player1": "Daniil Medvedev",
    "player2": "Marton Fucsovics",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-05T08:40:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.3,
      "p2": 3.5
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 1.27,
      "p2": 3.75
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 1.27,
      "p2": 3.72
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.5117,
    "prob_p2": 0.4883,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.5117,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 12,
      "utr_singles": 15.81,
      "utr_ranking": 8,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 65.21739130434783,
      "wr_surface_wins": 30,
      "wr_surface_total": 46,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 70.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 54,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": false,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 72.41379310344827,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 29,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.81,
      "ranking": 8,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": false
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.9341176470588235,
    "utr_p2": 0.9341176470588235,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 4.230769230769231,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 32.0,
    "points_diff": 1754,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 6.622638680659669,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 20.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 0.9666666666666667,
    "surface_wr_p1": 65.21739130434783,
    "surface_wr_p2": 72.41379310344827,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 30,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": 1.4423838277709342,
    "rank_advantage": 42,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5238095238095238,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3333333333333333,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -7.1964017991004425,
    "bp_converted_diff": -3.5526236881559257,
    "p1_surface_matches": 46,
    "p2_surface_matches": 29,
    "serve_quality_diff": 14.754362818590693,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.848314606741573,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.3157894736842105,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 5.748125937031484,
    "combined_confidence": 0.9833333333333334,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 2,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 7.9197901049475234,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.30434782608695654,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 7.870237805666519,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 4.062268295065142,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -10.379973573164134,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 64.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 69.6969696969697,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -2.339280359820094,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.5862068965517242,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 24.049999999999997,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": -14.392803598200885,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 64,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 79,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.11017391304347823,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2661379310344827,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.602020202020208,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -1
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}