Reilly Opelka vs Joao Fonseca
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
05 Ene 2026, 05:00
05 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Joao Fonseca
Reilly …: 31,0%
Joao …: 69,0%
¿Por qué Joao Fonseca?
UTR 15,11 vs 15,56
(-0,58)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Reilly … | Joao … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 2,55 | 1,48 | 39,2% |
| IA Fair Odds | 3,22 | 1,45 | 31,0% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Reilly …: -0,8%
Joao …: +0,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Reilly Opelka
Ranking
#63
UTR Rating
15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking
#79
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
50% (10p)
WR Hard
21/35 = 60,0%
Joao Fonseca
Ranking
#32
UTR Rating
15,56 Pro
UTR Ranking
#25
Forma L5
80% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
26/33 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -28,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,4615 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,7732 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -622,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | 7,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -18,7879 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -16,7013 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 1,0606 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | -3,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 78,7879 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 58,9744 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 75,6757 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 35,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 33,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 1,0000 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 20,3239 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 3,6173 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -0,5450 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 11,7069 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -11,4281 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 9,3394 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,4000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | -0,3333 | |
| momentum_p1 | 22,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -38,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -39,4200 | |
| current_streak_diff | -1,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 61,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 66,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 1,0341 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 1,1493 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,7500 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 5,3453 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 6,9426 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 14,5266 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,1280 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,2599 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5800 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8518 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9200 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,7347 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21305
API ID
15309591
Gamdom ID
569125
Torneo
Brisbane
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
cancelled
JSON Data
{
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"id": 21305,
"api_id": 15309591,
"gamdom_id": 569125,
"player1": "Reilly Opelka",
"player2": "Joao Fonseca",
"tournament": "Brisbane",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-05T01:00:00+00:00",
"status": "cancelled"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.55,
"p2": 1.48
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.58,
"p2": 1.49
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3104,
"prob_p2": 0.6896,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6896,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
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"utr_singles": 15.11,
"utr_ranking": 79,
"utr_division": "Pro",
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"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 60.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 21,
"wr_surface_total": 35,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 50.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 32,
"utr_singles": 15.56,
"utr_ranking": 25,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 78.78787878787878,
"wr_surface_wins": 26,
"wr_surface_total": 33,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 80.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
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},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 25,
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"features": {
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"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 22.0,
"momentum_p2": 60.0,
"points_diff": -622,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 11.7069264069264,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -38.0,
"p1_confidence": 1.0,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
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"utr_advantage": -3.7347070186735354,
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"best_rank_diff": 7,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.7731898882334817,
"rank_advantage": -28,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
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"surface_wr_diff": -18.787878787878782,
"bp_converted_diff": -11.428138528138529,
"p1_surface_matches": 35,
"p2_surface_matches": 33,
"serve_quality_diff": 20.323939393939398,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0340909090909092,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1492537313432836,
"aces_per_match_diff": 9.33939393939394,
"combined_confidence": 1.0,
"current_streak_diff": -1,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 3.6173160173160284,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 5.345328661852122,
"serve_consistency_p2": 6.94256208058961,
"surface_rank_synergy": 14.526597900144196,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.97435897435898,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 75.67567567567568,
"second_serve_won_diff": -0.5450216450216416,
"surface_matches_ratio": 1.0606060606060606,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -39.42,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 61,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 66,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.128,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2598787878787878,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.7013167013167,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": -3
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"feature_importance": {}
}