Reilly Opelka vs Joao Fonseca
Brisbane | Hard | Round of 32
05 Ene 2026, 05:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Joao Fonseca
Reilly …: 31,0% Joao …: 69,0%
¿Por qué Joao Fonseca?
UTR 15,11 vs 15,56 (-0,58) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Reilly … Joao … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,40 33,3%
Gamdom 2,55 1,48 39,2%
IA Fair Odds 3,22 1,45 31,0%
Edge vs Mercado: Reilly …: -0,8% Joao …: +0,8%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Reilly Opelka
Ranking #63
UTR Rating 15,11 Pro
UTR Ranking #79
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 50% (10p)
WR Hard 21/35 = 60,0%
Joao Fonseca
Ranking #32
UTR Rating 15,56 Pro
UTR Ranking #25
Forma L5 80% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 26/33 = 78,8%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -28,0000
rank_ratio 0,4615
log_rank_ratio -0,7732
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -622,0000
best_rank_diff 7,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -18,7879
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -16,7013
surface_matches_ratio 1,0606
surface_tournaments_won_diff -3,0000
surface_wr_p1 60,0000
surface_wr_p2 78,7879
surface_wr_p1_stable 58,9744
surface_wr_p2_stable 75,6757
p1_surface_matches 35,0000
p2_surface_matches 33,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 1,0000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 1,0000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 20,3239
first_serve_won_diff 3,6173
second_serve_won_diff -0,5450
bp_saved_diff 11,7069
bp_converted_diff -11,4281
aces_per_match_diff 9,3394
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,4000
last3_wr_diff -0,3333
momentum_p1 22,0000
momentum_p2 60,0000
momentum_diff -38,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -39,4200
current_streak_diff -1,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 61,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 66,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 1,0341
winner_ue_ratio_p2 1,1493
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,5000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,7500
serve_consistency_p1 5,3453
serve_consistency_p2 6,9426
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 14,5266
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,1280
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,2599
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5800
utr_p1 0,8518
utr_p2 0,9200
utr_advantage -3,7347
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21305
API ID 15309591
Gamdom ID 569125
Torneo Brisbane
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status cancelled
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21305,
    "api_id": 15309591,
    "gamdom_id": 569125,
    "player1": "Reilly Opelka",
    "player2": "Joao Fonseca",
    "tournament": "Brisbane",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-05T01:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "cancelled"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.55,
      "p2": 1.48
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.58,
      "p2": 1.49
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3104,
    "prob_p2": 0.6896,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6896,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 63,
      "utr_singles": 15.11,
      "utr_ranking": 79,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 60.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 21,
      "wr_surface_total": 35,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 50.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 32,
      "utr_singles": 15.56,
      "utr_ranking": 25,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 78.78787878787878,
      "wr_surface_wins": 26,
      "wr_surface_total": 33,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 80.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 15.11,
      "ranking": 79,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.56,
      "ranking": 25,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.851764705882353,
    "utr_p2": 0.92,
    "utr_diff": -0.5800000000000001,
    "rank_ratio": 0.46153846153846156,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 22.0,
    "momentum_p2": 60.0,
    "points_diff": -622,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 11.7069264069264,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": -0.3333333333333333,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.4,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -38.0,
    "p1_confidence": 1.0,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 60.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 78.78787878787878,
    "utr_advantage": -3.7347070186735354,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 7,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.7731898882334817,
    "rank_advantage": -28,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.5,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.75,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -18.787878787878782,
    "bp_converted_diff": -11.428138528138529,
    "p1_surface_matches": 35,
    "p2_surface_matches": 33,
    "serve_quality_diff": 20.323939393939398,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 1.0340909090909092,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 1.1492537313432836,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 9.33939393939394,
    "combined_confidence": 1.0,
    "current_streak_diff": -1,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 3.6173160173160284,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 5.345328661852122,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 6.94256208058961,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 14.526597900144196,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 58.97435897435898,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 75.67567567567568,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -0.5450216450216416,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 1.0606060606060606,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -39.42,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 61,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 66,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.128,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.2598787878787878,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -16.7013167013167,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": -3
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}