Gabriela Knutson vs Maja Chwalinska
Auckland | Hard | Qualification Final
04 Ene 2026, 02:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maja Chwalinska
Gabriela …: 43,6% Maja …: 56,5%
¿Por qué Maja Chwalinska?
UTR 11,68 vs 12,04 (-0,43) — Niveles similares
Confianza baja | Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (39%). No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Gabriela … Maja … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 2,63 1,44 38,1%
Gamdom 2,70 1,41 37,0%
IA Fair Odds 2,30 1,77 43,6%
Edge vs Mercado: Gabriela …: +8,1% Maja …: -8,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Gabriela Knutson
Ranking #176
UTR Rating 11,68 Pro
UTR Ranking #193
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 2/5 = 40,0%
Maja Chwalinska
Ranking #145
UTR Rating 12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking #93
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 5/9 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -35,0000
rank_ratio 0,8108
log_rank_ratio -0,2097
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -107,0000
best_rank_diff -34,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff -15,5556
surface_wr_diff_adjusted -5,3566
surface_matches_ratio 0,5556
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 40,0000
surface_wr_p2 55,5556
surface_wr_p1_stable 40,9722
surface_wr_p2_stable 54,5906
p1_surface_matches 5,0000
p2_surface_matches 9,0000
p1_surface_dominance -0,2000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,3667
p2_confidence 0,4200
combined_confidence 0,3933
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 5,6176
first_serve_won_diff 10,6067
second_serve_won_diff -10,3600
bp_saved_diff 21,0667
bp_converted_diff -16,6267
aces_per_match_diff 1,7111
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 60,0000
momentum_p2 62,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 1,2910
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 0,0000
match_load_p1 1,0000
match_load_p2 1,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,0000
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,3846
tiebreak_wr_p1 1,0000
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,5000
serve_consistency_p1 8,8371
serve_consistency_p2 12,0030
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 3,2623
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 0,0650
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 -0,0206
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,4300
utr_p1 0,4282
utr_p2 0,4788
utr_advantage -3,6272
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21308
API ID 15309412
Gamdom ID 569083
Torneo Auckland
Superficie Hard
Ronda Qualification Final
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21308,
    "api_id": 15309412,
    "gamdom_id": 569083,
    "player1": "Gabriela Knutson",
    "player2": "Maja Chwalinska",
    "tournament": "Auckland",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Qualification Final",
    "date": "2026-01-03T22:00:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 2.625,
      "p2": 1.4444444444444444
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.7,
      "p2": 1.41
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.73,
      "p2": 1.43
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.4355,
    "prob_p2": 0.5645,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.5645,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 176,
      "utr_singles": 11.68,
      "utr_ranking": 193,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 40.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 2,
      "wr_surface_total": 5,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 145,
      "utr_singles": 12.04,
      "utr_ranking": 93,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
      "wr_surface_wins": 5,
      "wr_surface_total": 9,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 11.68,
      "ranking": 193,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 12.04,
      "ranking": 93,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.47882352941176476,
    "utr_diff": -0.4299999999999997,
    "rank_ratio": 0.8108108108108109,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 60.00000000000001,
    "momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
    "points_diff": -107,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 21.066666666666663,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
    "match_load_p1": 1,
    "match_load_p2": 1,
    "momentum_diff": -2.000000000000007,
    "p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
    "p2_confidence": 0.42,
    "surface_wr_p1": 40.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
    "utr_advantage": -3.6271615352172057,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -34,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.20972053098206903,
    "rank_advantage": -35,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": -15.555555555555557,
    "bp_converted_diff": -16.626666666666672,
    "p1_surface_matches": 5,
    "p2_surface_matches": 9,
    "serve_quality_diff": 5.617555555555555,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.38461538461538464,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 1.7111111111111112,
    "combined_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 10.606666666666662,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": -0.2,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 8.83708892190338,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 12.003040789547093,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 3.262319370832185,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.97222222222222,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.59057071960297,
    "second_serve_won_diff": -10.360000000000007,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 1.2909999999999968,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.06499999999999995,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02055555555555555,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.3565504089697615,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}