Gabriela Knutson vs Maja Chwalinska
Auckland | Hard | Qualification Final
04 Ene 2026, 02:00
04 Ene 2026, 02:00
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Maja Chwalinska
Gabriela …: 43,6%
Maja …: 56,5%
¿Por qué Maja Chwalinska?
UTR 11,68 vs 12,04
(-0,43)
— Niveles similares
Confianza baja
| Tier: ?
Datos limitados: Esta predicción tiene baja confianza (39%).
No recomendamos usar como value bet.
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Gabriela … | Maja … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 2,63 | 1,44 | 38,1% |
| Gamdom | 2,70 | 1,41 | 37,0% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,30 | 1,77 | 43,6% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Gabriela …: +8,1%
Maja …: -8,1%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Gabriela Knutson
Ranking
#176
UTR Rating
11,68 Pro
UTR Ranking
#193
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
2/5 = 40,0%
Maja Chwalinska
Ranking
#145
UTR Rating
12,04 Pro
UTR Ranking
#93
Forma L5
60% (5p)
Forma L10
60% (10p)
WR Hard
5/9 = 55,6%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -35,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,8108 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,2097 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | 0,0000 | |
| points_diff | -107,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -34,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | -15,5556 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | -5,3566 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,5556 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 40,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 55,5556 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 40,9722 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 54,5906 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 5,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 9,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | -0,2000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,3667 | |
| p2_confidence | 0,4200 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,3933 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 5,6176 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 10,6067 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | -10,3600 | |
| bp_saved_diff | 21,0667 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -16,6267 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 1,7111 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 60,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 62,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | 1,2910 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 1,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,3846 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 1,0000 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,5000 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 8,8371 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 12,0030 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 3,2623 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | 0,0650 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | -0,0206 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,4300 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,4282 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,4788 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,6272 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21308
API ID
15309412
Gamdom ID
569083
Torneo
Auckland
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Qualification Final
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21308,
"api_id": 15309412,
"gamdom_id": 569083,
"player1": "Gabriela Knutson",
"player2": "Maja Chwalinska",
"tournament": "Auckland",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Qualification Final",
"date": "2026-01-03T22:00:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 2.625,
"p2": 1.4444444444444444
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.7,
"p2": 1.41
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.73,
"p2": 1.43
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.4355,
"prob_p2": 0.5645,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.5645,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 176,
"utr_singles": 11.68,
"utr_ranking": 193,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 40.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 2,
"wr_surface_total": 5,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 145,
"utr_singles": 12.04,
"utr_ranking": 93,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 55.55555555555556,
"wr_surface_wins": 5,
"wr_surface_total": 9,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 60.0,
"form_l10_wr": 60.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
"p1": {
"score": 11.68,
"ranking": 193,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
"score": 12.04,
"ranking": 93,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
"utr_p1": 0.4282352941176471,
"utr_p2": 0.47882352941176476,
"utr_diff": -0.4299999999999997,
"rank_ratio": 0.8108108108108109,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 60.00000000000001,
"momentum_p2": 62.000000000000014,
"points_diff": -107,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": 21.066666666666663,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.19999999999999996,
"match_load_p1": 1,
"match_load_p2": 1,
"momentum_diff": -2.000000000000007,
"p1_confidence": 0.36666666666666664,
"p2_confidence": 0.42,
"surface_wr_p1": 40.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 55.55555555555556,
"utr_advantage": -3.6271615352172057,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -34,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.20972053098206903,
"rank_advantage": -35,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 1.0,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.5,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": -15.555555555555557,
"bp_converted_diff": -16.626666666666672,
"p1_surface_matches": 5,
"p2_surface_matches": 9,
"serve_quality_diff": 5.617555555555555,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.0,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.38461538461538464,
"aces_per_match_diff": 1.7111111111111112,
"combined_confidence": 0.3933333333333333,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": 0,
"first_serve_won_diff": 10.606666666666662,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": -0.2,
"serve_consistency_p1": 8.83708892190338,
"serve_consistency_p2": 12.003040789547093,
"surface_rank_synergy": 3.262319370832185,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 40.97222222222222,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 54.59057071960297,
"second_serve_won_diff": -10.360000000000007,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.5555555555555556,
"weighted_momentum_diff": 1.2909999999999968,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 0,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 0,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": 0.06499999999999995,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": -0.02055555555555555,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": -5.3565504089697615,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}