Jesper De Jong vs Gabriel Diallo
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 11:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Gabriel Diallo
Jesper …: 38,5% Gabriel …: 61,5%
¿Por qué Gabriel Diallo?
UTR 14,97 vs 15,44 (-0,57) — Niveles similares
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Jesper … Gabriel … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 3,00 1,40 33,3%
Gamdom 2,85 1,44 35,1%
IA Fair Odds 2,60 1,63 38,5%
Edge vs Mercado: Jesper …: +6,7% Gabriel …: -6,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jesper De Jong
Ranking #73
UTR Rating 14,97 Pro
UTR Ranking #92
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 11/22 = 50,0%
Gabriel Diallo
Ranking #41
UTR Rating 15,44 Pro
UTR Ranking #33
Forma L5 40% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 18/36 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -33,0000
rank_ratio 0,5541
log_rank_ratio -0,5905
rank_tier_advantage -1,0000
points_diff -465,0000
best_rank_diff -41,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 0,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,6111
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 50,0000
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 50,0000
p1_surface_matches 22,0000
p2_surface_matches 36,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,7333
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8667
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 3,6929
first_serve_won_diff 1,6750
second_serve_won_diff 4,5518
bp_saved_diff -3,8649
bp_converted_diff -7,9848
aces_per_match_diff 0,7449
Forma
last5_wr_diff -0,2000
last3_wr_diff 0,0000
momentum_p1 30,0000
momentum_p2 32,0000
momentum_diff -2,0000
weighted_momentum_diff -9,7800
current_streak_diff 0,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 69,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 66,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,9767
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,8091
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,6190
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,3077
serve_consistency_p1 13,5364
serve_consistency_p2 10,0484
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy 0,0000
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0330
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0330
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff -0,5700
utr_p1 0,8353
utr_p2 0,9024
utr_advantage -3,7049
utr_both_pro 1,0000
utr_available 1,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21334
API ID 15309886
Gamdom ID 569312
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21334,
    "api_id": 15309886,
    "gamdom_id": 569312,
    "player1": "Jesper De Jong",
    "player2": "Gabriel Diallo",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-06T07:35:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 3.0,
      "p2": 1.4
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": 2.85,
      "p2": 1.44
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": 2.8,
      "p2": 1.42
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.3847,
    "prob_p2": 0.6153,
    "winner": 2,
    "confidence": 0.6153,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 73,
      "utr_singles": 14.97,
      "utr_ranking": 92,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 11,
      "wr_surface_total": 22,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 41,
      "utr_singles": 15.44,
      "utr_ranking": 33,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 18,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": 14.97,
      "ranking": 92,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.44,
      "ranking": 33,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
    "utr_p1": 0.8352941176470587,
    "utr_p2": 0.9023529411764706,
    "utr_diff": -0.5700000000000003,
    "rank_ratio": 0.5540540540540541,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 30.0,
    "momentum_p2": 32.0,
    "points_diff": -465,
    "utr_both_pro": 1.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": -3.8648989898989967,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": -2.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
    "utr_advantage": -3.7049073773155685,
    "utr_available": 1.0,
    "best_rank_diff": -41,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.5904930264998619,
    "rank_advantage": -33,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6190476190476191,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3076923076923077,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 0.0,
    "bp_converted_diff": -7.984848484848484,
    "p1_surface_matches": 22,
    "p2_surface_matches": 36,
    "serve_quality_diff": 3.692929292929307,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9767441860465116,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8091286307053942,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 0.7449494949494957,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
    "current_streak_diff": 0,
    "rank_tier_advantage": -1,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 1.6750000000000114,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 13.536421014343157,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 10.048402190242642,
    "surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 4.551767676767675,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.6111111111111112,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": -9.780000000000001,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 69,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 66,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.03300000000000003,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.03300000000000003,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}