Jesper De Jong vs Gabriel Diallo
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 32
06 Ene 2026, 11:35
06 Ene 2026, 11:35
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Gabriel Diallo
Jesper …: 38,5%
Gabriel …: 61,5%
¿Por qué Gabriel Diallo?
UTR 14,97 vs 15,44
(-0,57)
— Niveles similares
Confianza media
| Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
| Fuente | Jesper … | Gabriel … | Prob Impl. P1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sofascore | 3,00 | 1,40 | 33,3% |
| Gamdom | 2,85 | 1,44 | 35,1% |
| IA Fair Odds | 2,60 | 1,63 | 38,5% |
Edge vs Mercado:
Jesper …: +6,7%
Gabriel …: -6,7%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Jesper De Jong
Ranking
#73
UTR Rating
14,97 Pro
UTR Ranking
#92
Forma L5
20% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
11/22 = 50,0%
Gabriel Diallo
Ranking
#41
UTR Rating
15,44 Pro
UTR Ranking
#33
Forma L5
40% (5p)
Forma L10
40% (10p)
WR Hard
18/36 = 50,0%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
| rank_advantage | -33,0000 | |
| rank_ratio | 0,5541 | |
| log_rank_ratio | -0,5905 | |
| rank_tier_advantage | -1,0000 | |
| points_diff | -465,0000 | |
| best_rank_diff | -41,0000 |
Superficie
| surface_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_diff_adjusted | 0,0000 | |
| surface_matches_ratio | 0,6111 | |
| surface_tournaments_won_diff | 0,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2 | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p1_stable | 50,0000 | |
| surface_wr_p2_stable | 50,0000 | |
| p1_surface_matches | 22,0000 | |
| p2_surface_matches | 36,0000 | |
| p1_surface_dominance | 0,0000 |
Confianza
| p1_confidence | 0,7333 | |
| p2_confidence | 1,0000 | |
| combined_confidence | 0,8667 |
Servicio
| serve_quality_diff | 3,6929 | |
| first_serve_won_diff | 1,6750 | |
| second_serve_won_diff | 4,5518 | |
| bp_saved_diff | -3,8649 | |
| bp_converted_diff | -7,9848 | |
| aces_per_match_diff | 0,7449 |
Forma
| last5_wr_diff | -0,2000 | |
| last3_wr_diff | 0,0000 | |
| momentum_p1 | 30,0000 | |
| momentum_p2 | 32,0000 | |
| momentum_diff | -2,0000 | |
| weighted_momentum_diff | -9,7800 | |
| current_streak_diff | 0,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p1 | 69,0000 | |
| days_since_last_match_p2 | 66,0000 | |
| match_load_p1 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_p2 | 0,0000 | |
| match_load_diff | 0,0000 |
H2H
| h2h_wins_diff | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_matches | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_win_rate_p1 | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_on_surface | 0,0000 | |
| h2h_recency_weighted | 0,5000 | |
| h2h_confidence_score | 0,0000 |
Consistencia
| winner_ue_ratio_p1 | 0,9767 | |
| winner_ue_ratio_p2 | 0,8091 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p1 | 0,6190 | |
| tiebreak_wr_p2 | 0,3077 | |
| serve_consistency_p1 | 13,5364 | |
| serve_consistency_p2 | 10,0484 |
Interacción
| surface_rank_synergy | 0,0000 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p1 | -0,0330 | |
| rank_surface_mismatch_p2 | 0,0330 | |
| elite_surface_amplifier | 0,0000 |
UTR
| utr_diff | -0,5700 | |
| utr_p1 | 0,8353 | |
| utr_p2 | 0,9024 | |
| utr_advantage | -3,7049 | |
| utr_both_pro | 1,0000 | |
| utr_available | 1,0000 | |
| utr_expected_prob | 0,0000 | |
| utr_closeness | 0,0000 | |
| utr_data_quality | 0,0000 |
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID
21334
API ID
15309886
Gamdom ID
569312
Torneo
Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie
Hard
Ronda
Round of 32
Status
finished
JSON Data
{
"match": {
"id": 21334,
"api_id": 15309886,
"gamdom_id": 569312,
"player1": "Jesper De Jong",
"player2": "Gabriel Diallo",
"tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
"surface": "hard",
"round": "Round of 32",
"date": "2026-01-06T07:35:00+00:00",
"status": "finished"
},
"odds": {
"sofascore": {
"p1": 3.0,
"p2": 1.4
},
"gamdom": {
"p1": 2.85,
"p2": 1.44
},
"tnnslive": {
"p1": 2.8,
"p2": 1.42
}
},
"prediction": {
"prob_p1": 0.3847,
"prob_p2": 0.6153,
"winner": 2,
"confidence": 0.6153,
"model_version": "1.0.0"
},
"player_stats": {
"p1": {
"ranking": 73,
"utr_singles": 14.97,
"utr_ranking": 92,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 11,
"wr_surface_total": 22,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 20.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
},
"p2": {
"ranking": 41,
"utr_singles": 15.44,
"utr_ranking": 33,
"utr_division": "Pro",
"utr_pro": true,
"utr_v4_available": false,
"wr_surface": 50.0,
"wr_surface_wins": 18,
"wr_surface_total": 36,
"wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
"form_l5_wr": 40.0,
"form_l10_wr": 40.0,
"form_l5_matches": 5,
"form_l10_matches": 10
}
},
"utr": {
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"ranking": 92,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
},
"p2": {
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"ranking": 33,
"division": "Pro",
"is_pro": true
}
},
"features": {
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"utr_p2": 0.9023529411764706,
"utr_diff": -0.5700000000000003,
"rank_ratio": 0.5540540540540541,
"h2h_matches": 0,
"momentum_p1": 30.0,
"momentum_p2": 32.0,
"points_diff": -465,
"utr_both_pro": 1.0,
"bp_saved_diff": -3.8648989898989967,
"h2h_wins_diff": 0,
"last3_wr_diff": 0.0,
"last5_wr_diff": -0.2,
"match_load_p1": 0,
"match_load_p2": 0,
"momentum_diff": -2.0,
"p1_confidence": 0.7333333333333334,
"p2_confidence": 1.0,
"surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2": 50.0,
"utr_advantage": -3.7049073773155685,
"utr_available": 1.0,
"best_rank_diff": -41,
"h2h_on_surface": 0,
"log_rank_ratio": -0.5904930264998619,
"rank_advantage": -33,
"tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.6190476190476191,
"tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.3076923076923077,
"h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
"match_load_diff": 0,
"surface_wr_diff": 0.0,
"bp_converted_diff": -7.984848484848484,
"p1_surface_matches": 22,
"p2_surface_matches": 36,
"serve_quality_diff": 3.692929292929307,
"winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.9767441860465116,
"winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.8091286307053942,
"aces_per_match_diff": 0.7449494949494957,
"combined_confidence": 0.8666666666666667,
"current_streak_diff": 0,
"rank_tier_advantage": -1,
"first_serve_won_diff": 1.6750000000000114,
"h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
"h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
"p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
"serve_consistency_p1": 13.536421014343157,
"serve_consistency_p2": 10.048402190242642,
"surface_rank_synergy": 0.0,
"surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
"surface_wr_p2_stable": 50.0,
"second_serve_won_diff": 4.551767676767675,
"surface_matches_ratio": 0.6111111111111112,
"weighted_momentum_diff": -9.780000000000001,
"elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
"days_since_last_match_p1": 69,
"days_since_last_match_p2": 66,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.03300000000000003,
"rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.03300000000000003,
"surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 0.0,
"surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
},
"feature_importance": {}
}