Marin Čilić vs Adrian Mannarino
Hong Kong Men Singles | Hard | Round of 32
05 Ene 2026, 11:05
Predicción IA (XGBoost 1.0.0)
Marin Čilić
Marin …: 61,4% Adrian …: 38,6%
¿Por qué Marin Čilić?
Confianza media | Tier: ?
Comparativo de Odds
Fuente Marin … Adrian … Prob Impl. P1
Sofascore 1,73 2,10 57,8%
IA Fair Odds 1,63 2,59 61,4%
Edge vs Mercado: Marin …: +6,6% Adrian …: -6,6%
Estadísticas de Jugadores
Marin Čilić
Ranking #70
Forma L5 60% (5p)
Forma L10 60% (10p)
WR Hard 9/18 = 50,0%
Adrian Mannarino
Ranking #69
UTR Rating 15,37 Pro
UTR Ranking #41
Forma L5 20% (5p)
Forma L10 40% (10p)
WR Hard 15/36 = 41,7%
Features del Modelo XGBoost (60 features)
Rankings
rank_advantage -4,0000
rank_ratio 0,9452
log_rank_ratio -0,0564
rank_tier_advantage 0,0000
points_diff -52,0000
best_rank_diff 14,0000
Superficie
surface_wr_diff 8,3333
surface_wr_diff_adjusted 6,0000
surface_matches_ratio 0,5000
surface_tournaments_won_diff 0,0000
surface_wr_p1 50,0000
surface_wr_p2 41,6667
surface_wr_p1_stable 50,0000
surface_wr_p2_stable 42,5000
p1_surface_matches 18,0000
p2_surface_matches 36,0000
p1_surface_dominance 0,0000
Confianza
p1_confidence 0,6000
p2_confidence 1,0000
combined_confidence 0,8000
Servicio
serve_quality_diff 12,4528
first_serve_won_diff 8,3000
second_serve_won_diff 1,7500
bp_saved_diff 1,7167
bp_converted_diff -5,3000
aces_per_match_diff 3,8889
Forma
last5_wr_diff 0,4000
last3_wr_diff 0,6667
momentum_p1 52,0000
momentum_p2 2,0000
momentum_diff 50,0000
weighted_momentum_diff 36,0400
current_streak_diff 3,0000
days_since_last_match_p1 57,0000
days_since_last_match_p2 62,0000
match_load_p1 0,0000
match_load_p2 0,0000
match_load_diff 0,0000
H2H
h2h_wins_diff 0,0000
h2h_matches 0,0000
h2h_win_rate_p1 0,5000
h2h_on_surface 0,0000
h2h_recency_weighted 0,5000
h2h_confidence_score 0,0000
Consistencia
winner_ue_ratio_p1 0,6923
winner_ue_ratio_p2 0,7532
tiebreak_wr_p1 0,4286
tiebreak_wr_p2 0,0909
serve_consistency_p1 6,0638
serve_consistency_p2 14,0805
Interacción
surface_rank_synergy -0,4696
rank_surface_mismatch_p1 -0,0040
rank_surface_mismatch_p2 0,0873
elite_surface_amplifier 0,0000
UTR
utr_diff 0,0000
utr_p1 0,9012
utr_p2 0,9012
utr_advantage 0,0000
utr_both_pro 0,0000
utr_available 0,0000
utr_expected_prob 0,0000
utr_closeness 0,0000
utr_data_quality 0,0000
Top 10 Features (Modelo)
Info del Partido
Match ID 21336
API ID 15309883
Gamdom ID -
Torneo Hong Kong Men Singles
Superficie Hard
Ronda Round of 32
Status finished
JSON Data
{
  "match": {
    "id": 21336,
    "api_id": 15309883,
    "gamdom_id": null,
    "player1": "Marin \u010cili\u0107",
    "player2": "Adrian Mannarino",
    "tournament": "Hong Kong Men Singles",
    "surface": "hard",
    "round": "Round of 32",
    "date": "2026-01-05T07:05:00+00:00",
    "status": "finished"
  },
  "odds": {
    "sofascore": {
      "p1": 1.73,
      "p2": 2.1
    },
    "gamdom": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    },
    "tnnslive": {
      "p1": null,
      "p2": null
    }
  },
  "prediction": {
    "prob_p1": 0.6144,
    "prob_p2": 0.3856,
    "winner": 1,
    "confidence": 0.6144,
    "model_version": "1.0.0"
  },
  "player_stats": {
    "p1": {
      "ranking": 70,
      "utr_singles": null,
      "utr_ranking": null,
      "utr_division": null,
      "utr_pro": null,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 50.0,
      "wr_surface_wins": 9,
      "wr_surface_total": 18,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 60.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    },
    "p2": {
      "ranking": 69,
      "utr_singles": 15.37,
      "utr_ranking": 41,
      "utr_division": "Pro",
      "utr_pro": true,
      "utr_v4_available": false,
      "wr_surface": 41.66666666666667,
      "wr_surface_wins": 15,
      "wr_surface_total": 36,
      "wr_surface_source": "TennisPlayerYearStats",
      "form_l5_wr": 20.0,
      "form_l10_wr": 40.0,
      "form_l5_matches": 5,
      "form_l10_matches": 10
    }
  },
  "utr": {
    "p1": {
      "score": null,
      "ranking": null,
      "division": null,
      "is_pro": null
    },
    "p2": {
      "score": 15.37,
      "ranking": 41,
      "division": "Pro",
      "is_pro": true
    }
  },
  "features": {
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    "utr_p2": 0.9011764705882354,
    "utr_diff": 0.0,
    "rank_ratio": 0.9452054794520548,
    "h2h_matches": 0,
    "momentum_p1": 52.0,
    "momentum_p2": 2.0,
    "points_diff": -52,
    "utr_both_pro": 0.0,
    "bp_saved_diff": 1.7166666666666686,
    "h2h_wins_diff": 0,
    "last3_wr_diff": 0.6666666666666666,
    "last5_wr_diff": 0.39999999999999997,
    "match_load_p1": 0,
    "match_load_p2": 0,
    "momentum_diff": 50.0,
    "p1_confidence": 0.6,
    "p2_confidence": 1.0,
    "surface_wr_p1": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2": 41.66666666666667,
    "utr_advantage": 0.0,
    "utr_available": 0.0,
    "best_rank_diff": 14,
    "h2h_on_surface": 0,
    "log_rank_ratio": -0.056352936551131744,
    "rank_advantage": -4,
    "tiebreak_wr_p1": 0.42857142857142855,
    "tiebreak_wr_p2": 0.09090909090909091,
    "h2h_win_rate_p1": 0.5,
    "match_load_diff": 0,
    "surface_wr_diff": 8.333333333333329,
    "bp_converted_diff": -5.299999999999997,
    "p1_surface_matches": 18,
    "p2_surface_matches": 36,
    "serve_quality_diff": 12.452777777777783,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p1": 0.6923076923076923,
    "winner_ue_ratio_p2": 0.7531645569620253,
    "aces_per_match_diff": 3.8888888888888893,
    "combined_confidence": 0.8,
    "current_streak_diff": 3,
    "rank_tier_advantage": 0,
    "first_serve_won_diff": 8.300000000000011,
    "h2h_confidence_score": 0.0,
    "h2h_recency_weighted": 0.5,
    "p1_surface_dominance": 0.0,
    "serve_consistency_p1": 6.063800240563578,
    "serve_consistency_p2": 14.080499391491248,
    "surface_rank_synergy": -0.46960780459276424,
    "surface_wr_p1_stable": 50.0,
    "surface_wr_p2_stable": 42.5,
    "second_serve_won_diff": 1.75,
    "surface_matches_ratio": 0.5,
    "weighted_momentum_diff": 36.040000000000006,
    "elite_surface_amplifier": 0.0,
    "days_since_last_match_p1": 57,
    "days_since_last_match_p2": 62,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p1": -0.0040000000000000036,
    "rank_surface_mismatch_p2": 0.08733333333333326,
    "surface_wr_diff_adjusted": 6.0,
    "surface_tournaments_won_diff": 0
  },
  "feature_importance": {}
}